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2,011 documents from South African Institute of International Affairs
The Future of SA Nuclear Energy Post 123 Agreement
The research paper examines the implications of the lapsed 123 Agreement between the US and South Africa, which suspended export licenses for nuclear fuel supplier Westinghouse Electric Corporation. It details the critical life extension process at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Plant, including the replacement of steam generators for Unit 1 and Unit 2, and notes that the plant provides approximately 6% of South Africa's electricity. The document highlights a deadlock in US-South Africa negotiations over South Africa's right to produce its own nuclear fuel, and notes a new Memorandum of Understanding between the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) and Russia's TVEL. Finally, it mentions South Africa's plan to procure an additional 2500 MW of nuclear power to combat loadshedding, despite past legal challenges to nuclear deals with Russia.
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Document type: Research paper
How can the G20 support Africa’s energy transition and sustainable financing priorities and concerns?
The document argues that while African nations have submitted ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), they face a massive climate finance gap and high debt burdens that hinder a just energy transition. It critiques previous G20 presidencies for treating developing countries as a monolith and failing to address Africa's specific needs, such as the disparity between mitigation and adaptation funding. The brief recommends that the Brazilian and South African G20 presidencies focus on increasing the flow and quality of finance through concessional capital, debt-for-nature swaps, and the re-channeling of special drawing rights, while also enhancing Africa's participation in carbon markets and attracting private sector investment.
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Document type: Policy brief
Air Aware: A Journey of Youth-Led Action for Clean Air and Environmental Justice in Johannesburg
The Air Aware campaign, led by Youth@SAIIA as part of the global Breathe Cities initiative, focuses on empowering youth aged 13–25 in South Africa to advocate for clean air. The program utilizes a structured journey including 'Train-the-Trainers' workshops, the appointment of Youth Air Champions (YACs) who implement community-specific campaigns, and engagement with policy frameworks like the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act 2004. Key activities included mapping air pollution hotspots in Soweto, linking air quality to biodiversity in the Waterberg Biosphere Reserve, and digital campaigns connecting plastic waste to air pollution. The initiative aims to culminate in a Youth-Led Conference on Air Pollution Policy and Implementation to integrate youth lived experiences into the City of Johannesburg's air quality governance.
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Document type: Guide
Africa’s Debt Priorities: A Sustainability Perspective
The document analyzes the increasing debt distress in Africa, noting that public debt reached 65.6% of GDP in 2022. It highlights the shift toward non-concessional debt and the role of private creditors, who now hold over 40% of Africa's total external debt. The brief argues that the G20's Common Framework needs reform to be more inclusive of middle-income countries and private creditors. It advocates for the establishment of an African Credit Rating Agency to counter perceived biases from global agencies and the creation of an African Debt Monitoring Mechanism by June 2024 to improve transparency. Key recommendations include restructuring multilateral development banks, extending debt repayment periods, and increasing IMF Poverty Reduction Growth Trust access limits.
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Document type: Policy brief
South Africa: Realising Youth Futures by Delivering on Promised Goals
The document outlines four strategic priorities for South Africa to support its youth: easing economic restrictions to foster entrepreneurship and green jobs, bridging the skills-demand mismatch through 21st-century vocational training, addressing health inequalities and the mental health crisis via mobile and e-health services, and increasing meaningful youth representation in political decision-making processes.
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Document type: Policy brief
Kenya: Leveraging Youth for Inclusive Development and Resilience
The document outlines four strategic priorities for Kenya to engage its youth population, where over 70% are under 35 but unemployment exceeds 40%. It recommends modernising agriculture through climate-smart technology, aligning technical and vocational training with market needs (including green and digital jobs), bridging the rural-urban digital divide to foster AI innovation, and expanding social safety nets for vulnerable groups. These recommendations stem from a participatory research project using foresight methodologies to identify future skills and social justice pathways.
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Document type: Policy brief
Industrialisation in Africa: How can the G20 assist?
The document argues that industrialisation is essential for improving living standards and creating youth employment in Africa, but notes a lack of focus on this goal during the 2022 and 2023 G20 summits. It identifies a productivity gap where large firms fail to generate sufficient employment and small firms lack productivity. The author recommends that the G20 adopt a unifying theme of industrialisation to support structural transformation, agricultural productivity, and the integration of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) into global value chains.
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Document type: Policy brief
Global Markers in South Africa's Just Energy Transition
The document argues that a 'Just Energy Transition' in South Africa requires more than decarbonisation; it necessitates a radical socio-economic transformation involving 'energy democracy' and inclusive industrialisation. It highlights the role of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) and the importance of decentralised energy governance and regional leadership to ensure equitable benefits for marginalised communities.
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Document type: Report
Seeing the Forest and the Trees: The Global Challenge of Regulating Social Media for Democracy
The document examines the dual nature of social media as a tool that both supports and undermines democratic processes. It highlights how platforms enable protest movements like 'Black Lives Matter' and 'Rhodes Must Fall' to shift political agendas, while simultaneously allowing negative actors to deploy misinformation and surveillance. The author argues that because these platforms are privately owned and monetise interaction, they create a complex regulatory ecosystem requiring a holistic response rather than a binary view of the technology as purely good or bad.
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Document type: Research paper
Navigating South Africa’s Geopolitical Energy Transition by 2050
The report explores South Africa's energy transition through 2050, emphasizing the need to move beyond 'used futures' and growth-centric economic models. It identifies critical innovations in governance, technology, and social values, while proposing six alternative framings—ranging from ecomodernism to the 'great simplification'—to inform policy. The analysis highlights high-impact uncertainties such as a severe skills shortage for the decarbonized economy and the 'carbon trap' of meeting rising energy demands while reducing emissions. It concludes with four diverse scenarios for 2050 and recommends a shift toward regenerative economies and inclusive multilateralism.
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Document type: Report
SAIIAS View on COP28: African Priorities
The document details Africa's objectives for COP28, emphasizing the need for systemic reform of the global financial architecture to close the adaptation financing gap and operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund. It advocates for a just energy transition that supports Africa's move up the green technology value chain, particularly regarding critical minerals, and calls for the inclusion of community-based organizations and youth in climate decision-making.
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Document type: Briefing
Legal protection for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant matters for nuclear installations everywhere
The document examines the precarious safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting risks such as loss of offsite power and cooling water. It argues that while customary international law, the Geneva Conventions' Additional Protocols, and the Pelindaba Treaty provide a framework to prohibit attacks on nuclear installations, these norms are often sidelined by political considerations. The author concludes that rather than creating new conventions, the international community must strengthen the enforcement and accountability of existing legal frameworks to prevent nuclear disasters.
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Document type: Policy brief
Africa’s Climate Champions: Key Countries to Watch at COP28
This research paper outlines the strategic positioning of African countries and institutions ahead of COP28 in Dubai, emphasizing the role of the Nairobi Declaration and the African Union's Climate Change and Resilient Strategy and Action Plan (2022-2032) in driving the regional climate agenda.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s Climate Champions: Key countries to watch at COP28
The report outlines the strategic positions of African nations and multilateral structures at COP28, emphasizing the Nairobi Declaration and the AU's Climate Change and Resilient Strategy and Action Plan. It details the leadership of specific countries in areas such as green hydrogen (Morocco, Kenya), critical minerals (Namibia), and forest restoration (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Republic of Congo), while analyzing the influence of negotiating blocs like the G77 and China, BASIC, and the LDC group in securing climate finance and adaptation support.
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Document type: Report
Geopolitical Energy Futures in South Africa: Strategic Policy Pathways to 2035
The document argues that South Africa must move away from 'used energy futures' and growth-centric economic models to achieve a just energy transition. It proposes four strategic priorities: fostering cross-border sustainable energy democracies, practicing active non-alignment in renewable energy diplomacy, challenging preconceived energy futures to ensure intergenerational fairness, and implementing anticipatory energy governance to overcome 'energy blindness' and carbon lock-in. The brief emphasizes the need for a multipolar approach to energy geopolitics in the post-COVID-19 era, advocating for regional integration within the SADC and the adoption of regenerative economic models.
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Document type: Policy brief
Digital identification and biometrics in East Africa: opportunities and concerns
The document examines the shift from paper-based to digital identification in East Africa, specifically focusing on Ethiopia's 'Fayda' and Uganda's 'Ndaga Muntu' systems. While digital IDs aim to improve access to government services and reduce fraud, the briefing highlights significant risks including the exclusion of marginalized groups, potential for ethnic profiling, and the absence or weakness of data protection laws. It recommends transparent roll-outs, the maintenance of analogue alternatives, and the establishment of strong legal frameworks for cybersecurity and privacy.
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Document type: Policy brief
Africa’s Wish List for an Ambitious and Equitable COP28
The document details Africa's strategic position for COP28, as framed by the Nairobi Declaration. It argues that the continent must shift from being viewed as a 'climate victim' to a 'climate champion' by leveraging its renewable energy potential and critical minerals. Central to this is a demand for a complete overhaul of the global financial architecture to increase grant-based and concessional finance, as current investments are far below the $2.8 trillion needed by 2030. The brief emphasizes the urgent need to operationalize the Loss and Damage Fund and double adaptation finance to prevent an estimated $6 trillion in economic losses by 2035. It also highlights the importance of the first Global Stocktake as an accountability tool to hold the world's largest emitters and fossil-fuel companies responsible.
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Document type: Policy brief
Digital identification and Biometrics In East Africa: Opportunities and Concerns
The document examines the transition from paper-based to digital identification in East Africa, specifically focusing on Ethiopia's Fayda and Uganda's Ndaga Muntu systems. While digital IDs aim to improve access to services and reduce fraud, the author highlights significant risks including mass exclusion of marginalized groups, potential for ethnic profiling, and the absence of robust data protection laws. The briefing argues that without strong legal frameworks and transparent implementation, these systems can become barriers to human rights rather than tools for inclusion.
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Document type: Policy brief
Namibia’s Foreign Policy on Human Rights
The document examines the contradictions in Namibia's foreign policy on human rights, noting a gap between its progressive Constitution and its practical international conduct. It identifies key tensions, such as the conflict between multilateralism and state sovereignty, and the prioritisation of 'solidarity politics' from the liberation struggle over universal human rights standards. This is evidenced by Namibia's frequent abstentions at the UN on country-specific human rights resolutions and its continued diplomatic ties with authoritarian regimes.
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Document type: Research paper
Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic and Somaliland: The Struggle for Recognition
The document analyzes the distinct paths toward statehood for Somaliland and the SADR, contrasting Somaliland's case of secession from Somalia with the SADR's struggle for self-determination against Moroccan occupation. It examines how the African Union's adherence to inviolable colonial borders, despite precedents like Eritrea and South Sudan, complicates these efforts. The authors argue that both territories seek to reclaim colonial-era boundaries rather than alter them, yet they face significant economic and political hurdles due to a lack of formal recognition.
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Document type: Policy brief