Search Climate Insights Directory

The research examines nine donor-supported active citizenship programs implemented between 2010 and 2015 in Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, and Tunisia. The authors argue that these programs, primarily funded by the US and Europe, employ a 'neo-liberalization of citizenship' approach that emphasizes formal participation and technical skill-building over political dissent and social mobilization. Through interviews with approximately 250 activists, the study finds a significant gap between the normative, Western-inspired training modules and the actual political constraints in the MENA region, such as secretive decision-making, unreliable judicial systems, and the dominance of informal power networks. The paper concludes that these programs risk bolstering the legitimacy of non-democratic regimes by encouraging tokenistic engagement and disconnecting activists from their local communities.

The study finds a significant negative relationship between local agricultural price indices and the risk of violent conflict in Africa. Using a meso-level approach with a spatial-temporal grid, the author argues that falling agricultural prices lower the opportunity costs for rural populations, thereby facilitating rebel recruitment and civilian support. The results suggest that negative price shocks have a more detrimental effect on conflict risk than positive shocks have a mitigating effect, supporting the 'opportunity cost' mechanism over the 'state capacity' explanation.

The author examines the contributions of historian Dennis Showalter to the study of German panzer forces, specifically his analysis of doctrine, generalship, and the Battle of Kursk. The text then applies these themes to the Indian Armoured Corps (IAC), detailing its transition from internal security and frontier policing to high-intensity combat in Burma. It highlights the role of mission-oriented command and combined arms tactics in the IAC's success during Operation Extended Capital and the 'Race to Rangoon'.

The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.

The research examines how Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh mitigate the ban on formal education through two primary resources: community-led education networks and online learning platforms. The authors document the operation of 27 community-organized networks that utilized the Myanmar curriculum to teach thousands of children, as well as the rise of digital education via YouTube, WhatsApp, and Facebook. The study highlights a tension between the restrictive policies of the Government of Bangladesh and the aspirations of refugees to maintain a cultural and linguistic link to Myanmar. It concludes that humanitarian agencies should better engage with these untapped community resources to improve educational outcomes and reach marginalized groups, such as adolescent girls.

The paper argues that while digital technologies offer opportunities for efficiency in crisis response, they are not neutral and can compromise fundamental humanitarian principles. It identifies key analytical prisms—humanitarian space, public-private partnerships, resource distribution (e.g., digital food/cash), human relations, and data-driven vulnerabilities—to guide future academic inquiry into the 'technological turn' of humanitarian action.

The authors argue that traditional dyadic analysis of international conflict often ignores spatial dependence, where the risk of conflict in one pair of states is influenced by the status of other linked pairs. They introduce new measures for 'third-party' and 'fourth-party' alliance ties, as well as a theory of geographic 'inbetweenness,' to demonstrate that dyads linked to ongoing disputes through these pathways are significantly more likely to experience conflict onset. Using data from 1950-1992, the study finds that these extra-dyadic factors provide a substantially better fit for predicting conflict than purely dyadic models.

The author examines the transition from indirect to direct British rule in the Lushai Hills (1850-1900). He distinguishes between 'small wars'—short, punitive military expeditions used to project power—and 'pacification,' a longer-term process involving both kinetic measures (paramilitary forces) and non-kinetic elements (infrastructure, education, and healthcare). The study argues that this 'winning hearts and minds' approach, backed by the threat of force, was more complex than simple brute force and served as a model for imperial consolidation.

The study finds no general statistical relationship between forest resources and the onset or duration of civil wars at the national level. While some disaggregated results suggest that proximity to the coast may prolong conflicts in forested zones, the authors conclude that the perceived link between forests and conflict is largely driven by a few specific cases, such as Burma, rather than a global pattern.

The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.

The document analyzes the Pindaris, who evolved from military mercenaries employed by Maratha sirdars into autonomous non-state agents due to the political fragmentation and economic decline of indigenous Indian polities. It contrasts the 'military-fiscal' state of the East India Company (EIC) with the decentralized Maratha Confederacy, explaining how the EIC's superior financial resources and bureaucratic infrastructure allowed it to eventually pacify the Pindaris through a combination of kinetic military operations and non-kinetic measures such as land grants and administrative reforms.

The authors argue that non-violent direct action is more effective at undermining autocracies and significantly more likely to lead to democratic transitions than violent conflict. Using a multinomial logit model for the period 1900-2004, the study finds that non-violent campaigns substantially increase the probability of democratization, particularly when the state has a high proportion of democratic neighbors. Conversely, violent direct action is less effective at destabilizing regimes overall and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely. The research suggests that non-violence promotes power dispersion and elite defection, whereas violence tends to centralize power and justify further repression.

The authors analyze the annual commemoration of the battle of Erenköy (Kokkina) in Cyprus, arguing that it has evolved from a state-led 'national myth' of salvation by the Turkish military into a 'vernacular history' or 'epic' of local struggle. Through ethnographic observation and interviews, the paper demonstrates how participants—including former fighters, villagers, and their descendants—repurpose official narratives to create an 'affect of agency' that is future-oriented rather than purely focused on past victimization or triumph. This shift is evidenced by the rising attendance at the Erenköy pilgrimage and a declining interest in purely militaristic state celebrations, reflecting a broader change in Turkish Cypriot identity and political aspirations.

The study analyzes data from the Journal of Peace Research (JPR) from 1983 to 2008 to examine the gender gap in academic publishing. While the authors find a clear but declining gender gap in the number of submissions and published articles, they find no evidence of significant gender bias in the acceptance process or in citation counts. The results suggest that the observed productivity gap is not driven by editorial bias, and that co-authorship positively influences both publication success and citation impact regardless of gender.

The report examines the marginalization of women in the Cyprus peace process and the efforts of civil society groups, such as the Gender Advisory Team (GAT), to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1325. It highlights the low political representation of women on both sides of the divide and the dominance of a masculinist lens in conflict narratives. The author details specific recommendations for governance, property, and economic rights in a potential federal state, while evaluating the limited impact of the Technical Committee on Gender Equality established in 2015.

The research analyzes the relationship between state repression of 'empowerment rights' (social, political, and economic liberties) and ethnic fractionalization in predicting civil war onset. Using data from 143 states, the study finds that state repression does not have a direct effect on war onset. However, it discovers a significant conditional effect: in ethnically fractionalized societies, higher levels of state repression actually reduce the probability of civil war, whereas in homogeneous societies, repression increases the risk. These findings challenge 'grievance-based' theories of ethnic conflict, suggesting instead that the opportunity to mobilize—which is constrained by repression—is the primary driver of rebellion in diverse societies.

The document examines the intersection of global climate goals, EU energy security, and the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential gas hub. It analyzes the role of natural gas as a 'bridging fuel' for the EU, the geopolitical use of energy by Russia and Iran, and the commercial and political obstacles facing gas development in Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt, particularly following the discovery of the Zohr field.

The paper examines the 'globalisation' of the Darfur rebellion, arguing that while international attention provided rebels with leverage and deterred mass violence, it also incentivised uncompromising political posturing and fostered internal fragmentation by decoupling leadership from local legitimacy.

The research concludes that China's security force assistance (SFA) in Africa is consistent with a strategy of economic alignment rather than a military alignment strategy aimed at supplanting the US. While China has expanded its SFA to almost every African state since 2015, the assistance is described as being "spread widely but thin," focusing on non-lethal equipment and training to protect economic interests and foster long-term relationships. In contrast, the US remains the dominant SFA provider in financial terms, with annual provision worth hundreds of millions of dollars compared to China's estimated tens of millions. The authors argue that this approach creates a viable alternative for authoritarian African governments who may otherwise face human rights-based restrictions from Western donors.

The report examines how environmental issues in Cyprus can either exacerbate conflict or facilitate peace-building. It analyzes the political, legal, and administrative asymmetries between the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Cypriot administration, noting that fragmented planning leads to environmental degradation, such as illegal quarrying in the Pentadaktylos and Androlikou/Gündoğdu areas. The document reviews various levels of cooperation, from intergovernmental organizations like the UN and EU to the Bi-communal Technical Committee on the Environment (BTCE) and grassroots ENGOs. It concludes with proposals for a Buffer Zone Peace Park, UNESCO Biosphere Reserves, and a bi-communal ecological studies centre in Varisheia to foster long-term reconciliation.