Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war

The study finds no general statistical relationship between forest resources and the onset or duration of civil wars at the national level. While some disaggregated results suggest that proximity to the coast may prolong conflicts in forested zones, the authors conclude that the perceived link between forests and conflict is largely driven by a few specific cases, such as Burma, rather than a global pattern.

• At the national level, there is no general relationship between forest resources and the onset of conflict; in fact, some data suggests that higher forest cover is associated with a lower risk of conflict onset.
• National-level analysis does not support the hypothesis that forest resources prolong civil wars; instead, conflicts in countries with forest or closed forest cover tend to be shorter.
• The perceived positive correlation between forest exports and conflict onset is not a general pattern but is primarily driven by the case of Burma.
• In disaggregated analysis of conflict zones, a shorter distance to the coast is associated with longer conflict duration in forested areas, likely because timber is more easily transported by sea.
• Forest resources do not appear to act as a 'second choice' for rebels in the absence of more valuable lootable resources like oil and diamonds.
• Analysis of the post-Cold War period suggests that forest cover may increase the opportunities to extract other conflict commodities, but it does not substitute for them.
• The authors argue that previous claims by NGOs and international organizations (such as FAO and USAID) that forest conflict is a worldwide phenomenon are based on hasty generalizations from a few case studies.

APA

Rustad, S. C. A., Rød, J. K., Larsen, W., & Gleditsch, N. P. (n.d.). Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas, Jan Ketil Rød, Wenche Larsen, and Nils Petter Gleditsch. Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rustad |first1=Siri Camilla Aas |last2=Rød |first2=Jan Ketil |last3=Larsen |first3=Wenche |last4=Gleditsch |first4=Nils Petter |title=Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rustadndfoliage, author = {Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas and Rød, Jan Ketil and Larsen, Wenche and Gleditsch, Nils Petter}, title = {{Foliage and fighting: Forest resources and the onset, duration, and location of civil war}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/6d52ac8c-fdf1-4f90-90ad-c440d255164a/Foliage and Fighting Forest Resources and the Onset Duration and Location of Civil War.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }