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The MENA region increased its operational utility-scale solar and wind capacity by 57% since May 2022, adding 6.9 GW. While prospective capacity has grown by 400% to 361 GW, 60% of these projects are earmarked for green hydrogen production or export rather than domestic decarbonization. Oil and gas power plants still provide over 90% of the region's electricity, and replacing them would require approximately 500 GW of additional solar and wind capacity. The report highlights a disparity in progress, noting that South America operationalized at least four times more capacity in the same period. Additionally, sovereign wealth funds from the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing more heavily in renewables abroad (46 GW) than domestically (14 GW).

The report finds that oil- and gas-fired power plants in development increased by 13% in the last year to 783 GW, with Asia accounting for nearly two-thirds of this capacity. If built, these projects would cost an estimated US$611 billion and generate 41,239 million tonnes of CO2e lifetime emissions. The analysis highlights that China leads global development, while the United States possesses the largest existing capacity. The report further challenges the reliability of fossil fuels during extreme weather and notes that renewables with storage are now cheaper than gas-fired power in many regions, including China.

China is experiencing a significant increase in coal power capacity, with 37 GW starting construction and 52 GW permitted in the first half of 2023. The report argues that most of these projects violate central government policies intended to limit coal to a supporting role for renewables, instead serving as bulk power generation. This trend, driven by energy security concerns and a desire to maximize carbon-intensive capacity before the 2030 peaking deadline, risks creating massive overcapacity and undermining China's carbon neutrality goals.

The report finds that while there is a growing shift toward electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, the transition is too slow to meet IEA Net Zero by 2050 targets. Asia, particularly India and China, remains the hub for new coal-based blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) capacity. This continued investment in carbon-intensive technology, alongside persistent global overcapacity, creates a significant stranded asset risk estimated up to US$ 554 billion.

China has established global leadership in renewable energy, with utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and wind capacity exceeding 310 GW as of Q1 2023. The country is pursuing an ambitious target of over 1,200 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2030, supported by the '14th Five-Year Plan' and the development of massive 'wind-solar bases' in desert regions. While integrating these sources through ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission and new energy storage technologies, China continues to utilize coal-fired power as a 'bottom-line' guarantee for grid stability, which may hinder the complete phase-out of fossil fuels.

The report identifies coal-based primary steel production as a critical driver of global greenhouse gas emissions, contributing at least 7% of annual totals. It highlights that the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route is heavily dependent on metallurgical coal, with emissions underestimated by excluding coal mine methane. The document warns that 'business as usual' trajectories would consume nearly 23% of the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C by 2050. It argues that efficiency gains and carbon capture (CCUS) are insufficient or unviable in the near term. Instead, it advocates for a transition to green hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and electric arc furnaces (EAF). The report establishes 'red lines' against relining existing blast furnaces or building new ones, particularly in OECD countries, to avoid locking in high-emission infrastructure for decades.

Vietnam's PDP8 aims to peak coal capacity at 30 GW by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050, but the briefing argues that all coal projects not yet in construction must be cancelled to align with the JETP agreement. While Vietnam is leading global coal project cancellations in 2023, concerns remain regarding the use of experimental fuels for plant conversion and the government's crackdown on civil society leaders essential for a just transition.

China has established itself as the global leader in renewable energy, with operating large utility-scale solar capacity of 228 GW and combined wind capacity exceeding 310 GW. The country is pursuing a strategy of 'mega wind and solar bases' in its northern and northwestern deserts to meet a central government target of 1,200 GW of cumulative capacity by 2030, a goal it is likely to surpass by 2025. This expansion is driven by a combination of historical feed-in tariffs, favorable financing from state-owned banks, and strict provincial targets. However, the report notes that new renewables bases are often bundled with new coal-fired power plants to manage intermittency, potentially hindering the phase-out of fossil fuels. To address volatility, China is implementing 'source-grid-load-storage' integration, expanding new energy storage, and developing green hydrogen production.

The report finds that while global coal power is generally declining and many existing plants have set retirement dates, China is experiencing a surge in new coal capacity. In 2022, China's new coal construction capacity grew by 38%, accounting for 68% of global construction. Despite this, the report suggests a coal-free future is possible if countries transition from broad commitments to specific plant retirement plans and close financial channels for coal.

The report finds that while the 'return of coal' did not materialize globally in 2022, the pace of retirements remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. China is a major outlier, with its coal capacity in development increasing by 38% in 2022, while capacities in the rest of the world decreased by 20%. In the EU and UK, coal use saw a marginal 1% increase due to the gas crisis, but long-term trends remain downward. In Sub-Saharan Africa, coal projects persist despite funding shortages, though some successful just transition initiatives, such as the Komati plant retirement in South Africa, provide a potential model for the region.

The report indicates that while global coal power is trending toward an end, the pace of phase-out is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. China is a major outlier, with a surge in new plant approvals and construction that contrasts with a general decline in new projects outside its borders. In Japan, while new project scales are shrinking, operational capacity increased in 2022, and very few plants have confirmed closure dates.

The report finds that while global coal phase-out remains possible, the current pace of closures is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals. China is a major outlier, accounting for 68% of proposed global coal capacity in 2022, while other regions show a decline in new projects. In South Korea, the report argues that current plans are inconsistent with national climate goals and that the financial risks of coal dependence are evident in the deficits of the Korea Electric Power Corporation.

The report indicates that while the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW in 2022, this was primarily driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global developing coal capacity. Outside China, new coal proposals have collapsed by 84% since 2015. However, the current pace of decommissioning is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, with a required average of 117 GW of annual retirements to achieve a 2040 phase-out. In Latin America, development has slowed significantly, though Argentina recently commissioned the Río Turbio plant and Brazil maintains plans for 1.4 GW of new capacity by 2031, despite current project stalls.

The 2023 report by Global Energy Monitor and partners highlights a divergence in global coal trends: while most of the world is reducing coal capacity, China is significantly increasing its domestic pipeline. In 2022, China's under-construction coal capacity grew by 38%, while the rest of the world saw a 20% decrease. The report notes that 70% of OECD coal capacity is moving toward phase-out, but only 6% of non-OECD capacity is scheduled for retirement before 2040. In Pakistan, coal capacity grew from 150 MW in 2016 to 7.6 GW in 2023, with the government signaling a shift toward increasing local coal-based electricity capacity to 10 GW despite environmental and social concerns in the Thar region.

The report indicates that while the global coal sector is generally declining, China is significantly increasing its coal capacity, contrasting with a sharp drop in new projects elsewhere. Most of the world's operational coal capacity is now within the scope of national neutrality targets, though the current pace of retirement remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement objectives. In Latin America and the Caribbean, coal development has slowed significantly, with notable retirements in Chile and Peru, though Argentina and Brazil maintain some capacity in development.

The report indicates that while global coal capacity is nearing an end with one-third of the 580 GW fleet having set closure dates, the pace of exit is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals. China is a major outlier, with its development-stage capacity increasing by 32% to 366 GW in 2022, while the rest of the world saw a 22% decrease. In the EU and UK, the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine slowed retirements and led to the temporary restart of some units, though coal's share of electricity production only rose by 1%. Turkey ranks third globally in developing coal capacity with approximately 11 GW of announced projects, though many face financing and legal hurdles, and the government plans only 3.2 GW of new coal capacity by 2035.

The report highlights a global divergence in coal energy trends: while OECD countries and much of the world outside China are reducing coal capacity and increasing retirements, China is significantly expanding its domestic coal pipeline. The document notes that one-third of global coal capacity has a set phase-out date, yet the overall pace remains insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets. Specific focus is given to Pakistan, where a shift toward local coal is increasing despite environmental concerns and international pledges.

The report finds that while the world outside China is nearing a 'no new coal' milestone, a massive surge in coal permitting and construction in China is offsetting global progress. In 2022, the global coal fleet grew by 19.5 GW, driven by China, which now accounts for 68% of global capacity under development. While the U.S. and EU continue to retire capacity, the pace of global retirements remains far below the levels required to meet a 1.5C pathway, which would necessitate an average of 117 GW of retirements per year. The report also highlights the role of private finance, noting that most financial institutions' coal policies remain insufficient to align with climate science.

The report finds that The Carlyle Group invested in 91 energy companies owning 972 assets between 2011 and 2021, with 90% of these being fossil fuel investments. These assets emitted an estimated 277 million metric tons of CO2e, with emissions growing at an average annual rate of 95%. The analysis highlights a significant disparity between Carlyle's fossil fuel investments ($22.4 billion) and its renewable energy commitments ($1.4 billion). Furthermore, the report documents that 84% of Carlyle's downstream US assets are located in areas with higher concentrations of low-income residents or people of color than state averages, and 47% of these plants have a record of environmental violations.

The Europe Gas Tracker 2023 reports that the EU is pursuing a costly and uncoordinated expansion of gas infrastructure, including a potential 136% increase in LNG import capacity. This build-out, estimated to cost €53.5 billion, risks locking the bloc into fossil fuel dependency and contradicts the European Climate Law's goals of a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050.