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228 documents from Basque Centre for Climate Change
Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development
The research analyzes energy service demand in the UK over two hundred years, finding that income and price elasticities generally follow inverse U-shape and U-shape curves respectively as economies develop. However, these trends are frequently disrupted by technological transitions that introduce new value attributes or expand market access to poorer populations, often leading to rebound effects where efficiency gains increase overall energy consumption. The author concludes that energy demand in developing economies is likely to continue rising rapidly, and in industrialized nations it is unlikely to decline, suggesting long-term increases in global carbon dioxide emissions unless a full transition to low-carbon technologies occurs.
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Document type: Research paper
Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona
The document examines the ESCO model as a budget-neutral financing mechanism to bridge the 'energy efficiency gap'. It identifies significant administrative, technical, financial, and informational barriers in Spain and Barcelona, while providing a case study of a successful solar thermal installation by Sol Solar to demonstrate the model's viability in the private residential sector.
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Document type: Research paper
Understanding Public Support for Externality-Correcting Taxes and Subsidies: A Lab Experiment
The research paper employs a lab experiment with 195 subjects to compare public support for taxes and subsidies designed to correct a negative externality. The study finds that subsidies consistently receive higher support than taxes, a gap that is widened when participants have only partial information about how tax revenues are spent or subsidies are funded. While full budgetary information increases support for both instruments, it disproportionately benefits taxes. Interestingly, participants expected taxes to be more effective at reducing the externality than subsidies, despite preferring the latter. The authors conclude that the lack of trust or clarity regarding the use of tax revenues is a primary driver of tax aversion.
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Document type: Research paper
THE LONG ROAD OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS: FROM KYOTO TO PARIS STOPPING OVER IN DOHA
The COP18 summit in Doha resulted in incremental progress, primarily the agreement of a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol (KP2) from 2013 to 2020. While the EU and several other nations committed to an average emission reduction of 18% below 1990 levels, major emitters including the US, China, Russia, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand did not approve or opposed the commitment. The summit failed to establish a concrete roadmap for the $100 billion annual climate finance target for 2020, though it introduced a new agreement to establish an international mechanism for "loss and damage" by COP19. The document highlights ongoing tensions regarding the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC) and the dispute over "hot air" carbon credits, particularly involving Poland and the EU.
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Document type: Policy brief
BREAKING THE 400 ppm BARRIER: PHYSICAL AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE RECENT CO2 RISE
The document analyzes the rise of atmospheric CO2, which reached a record high of over 400 ppm in May 2013, and discusses the resulting climate impacts and the necessity of immediate mitigation to avoid dangerous warming.
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Document type: Policy brief
WARSAW CONFERENCE: “SMALL STEPS FORWARD WHILE AWAITING MAJOR DECISIONS AT THE 2015 PARIS CONFERENCE”
The Warsaw Conference (COP 19) achieved several technical milestones but failed to secure ambitious new mitigation commitments or a clear financial roadmap. Key outcomes included the creation of the Warsaw International Mechanism for loss and damage and the Warsaw Framework for REDD+, alongside a draft for a universal agreement to be finalized in Paris. However, the event was marked by reduced mitigation goals from Japan and the removal of carbon taxes in Australia, highlighting a persistent divide between developed and developing nations over the priority of funding versus emission cuts.
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Document type: Policy brief
Evaluating Governance and Participatory Processes in Natura 2000: Lessons Learned and Guidance for Future Prospects
The document investigates the shift from top-down technocratic approaches to inclusive environmental governance within the Natura 2000 network. It proposes a three-pronged evaluation framework focusing on information quality, legitimacy, and social dynamics. Applying this to the Garate-Santa Barbara SCI in the Basque Country, the authors find that while participatory processes can reduce uncertainty and foster local relationships, they often fail to influence final political decisions, leading to participant frustration.
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Document type: Research paper
Towards a Participatory Integrated Assessment Approach for Planning and Managing Natura 2000 Network Sites
The paper argues that traditional top-down, uni-dimensional management of protected areas fails to capture the complexity of social-ecological systems. To address this, the authors develop a participatory integrated assessment approach that combines social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) with economic valuation via choice experiments and ecological valuation via bio-geographic assessment. Applying this to the Garate-Santa Barbara Natura 2000 site in the Basque Country, the study identifies a conflict between the conservation of cork oak forests and the expansion of txakoli vineyards. The results indicate that a management option increasing cork oak woodland combined with additional compensation schemes (Alternative A32) is the most globally valued and socially acceptable solution. The authors conclude that such an interdisciplinary, inclusive approach fosters social learning and creates the social capital necessary for sustainable land-use transitions.
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Document type: Research paper
Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems
The research develops a Composite Forest Biodiversity Indicator (CFBI) to measure the qualitative and quantitative changes in forest ecosystems across 17 European countries. Using a three-stage-least-squares (3SLS) regression model, the authors analyze how rising temperatures, socio-economic factors, and biodiversity loss impact the economic value of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. The findings indicate that while warming generally reduces biodiversity, its effect on ecosystem service values varies by region and service type, suggesting that biodiversity management can mitigate some negative climate impacts.
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Document type: Research paper
The Economic Impacts of Biodiversity Policy for Improving the Climate Regulating Services Provided by EU Natura 2000 Habitats
The study estimates that the Natura 2000 network stored approximately 9.6 billion tonnes of carbon in 2010, with a monetary value between €607 billion and €1,130 billion. Forest habitats are identified as the most significant carbon sinks. The authors compare a 'Policy ON' scenario (improving conservation status and expanding protected areas) against a 'Policy OFF' scenario (inaction), finding that active policy interventions could generate economic gains of 1.71% to 2.86% by 2020. Specifically, increasing protected forest area by 10% is projected to provide €16 to 23 billion more in immediate benefits than focusing solely on qualitative site improvement.
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Document type: Research paper
Payments for Water Ecosystem Services in Latin America: Evidence from Reported Experience
The paper examines 38 PES schemes in Latin America, finding that most are local initiatives driven by NGOs and focused on improving extractive water supply through forest conservation. It highlights a significant disconnect between payment levels and market-based data, noting that payments are typically decided top-down and based on inputs (actions) rather than verified ecosystem outputs.
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Document type: Research paper
Valuation of wind energy projects: A real options approach
The research proposes a valuation approach for wind farms that combines a trinomial lattice to model mean-reverting electricity prices with Monte Carlo simulations to account for intermittent wind generation. Using UK data, the authors compare various support mechanisms, including feed-in tariffs, market premiums, and initial capital subsidies. The findings indicate that the option to delay investment significantly increases project value, and that one-time initial subsidies are more effective at triggering immediate investment than long-term premiums per unit of electricity produced.
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Document type: Research paper
Economics of Energy and Climate Change: Origins, Developments and Growth
The paper analyzes the evolution of energy and climate change economics, noting a massive increase in research output since 2005. While quantity has surged, the author suggests a potential relative decline in originality compared to the 1990s.
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Document type: Research paper
Weighting social preferences in participatory multi-criteria evaluations: a case study on sustainable natural resource management
The paper argues that explicitly weighting criteria in participatory multi-criteria evaluations allows for a 'social sensitivity' analysis that validates the robustness of sustainability assessments without forcing a consensus among stakeholders. Using a case study of the Urdaibai Estuary in the Basque Country, the authors applied a process of individual weighting followed by hierarchical cluster analysis to group social actors by their priorities. The results showed that while most groups favored conservation and limited dredging, the shipyard labor union held opposing priorities. The authors conclude that this approach facilitates social learning and mutual understanding by mapping the diversity of priorities rather than oversimplifying them into a single average value.
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Document type: Research paper
Towards a Comprehensive Approach to Quantifying and Mapping Ecosystem Services Flows
The authors introduce Service Path Attribution Networks (SPANs), developed as part of the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) project, to address the 'spatial mismatch' between where ecosystem services are produced and where they are used. The framework distinguishes between provisioning services (beneficial carriers) and preventive services (detrimental carriers), utilizing agent-based modeling to track 'carrier agents' across the landscape. By identifying source, sink, and use locations, the model generates five types of maps—theoretical, possible, actual, inaccessible, and blocked—to help decision-makers identify where service delivery is efficient or impaired. The paper demonstrates the application of SPANs to five service types: aesthetic viewsheds, riverine flood regulation, subsistence fisheries, recreation, and carbon sequestration, arguing that this flow-based approach enables more accurate valuation and targeted conservation planning.
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Document type: Research paper
Environmental fiscal reform and unemployment in Spain in the presence of an informal sector
The document argues that incorporating the informal sector into economic models strengthens the case for environmental fiscal reform in Spain. By using carbon tax revenues to reduce labour taxes, the government can encourage workers to move from the informal to the formal sector, thereby reducing unemployment and increasing overall welfare.
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Document type: Policy brief
Effects of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in Germany on European Electricity Exchange and Welfare
The study finds that CCS deployment in Germany would lower spot market electricity prices and reduce imports from France, Belgium, and Poland, while increasing producer and consumer surpluses.
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Document type: Research paper
Environmental Fiscal Reform and Unemployment in Spain
The paper examines the potential for an employment double dividend in Spain, where carbon taxes are used to fund reductions in labour taxes. It reviews previous CGE models and introduces a new model that accounts for Spain's significant informal labour market. The authors find that recycling carbon tax revenues into labour tax reductions can significantly decrease unemployment and increase overall welfare, especially when accounting for the reduction of local pollutants.
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Document type: Research paper
From shadow to green: Linking environmental fiscal reforms and the informal economy
The paper examines the 'double dividend' hypothesis in Spain, arguing that shifting the tax burden from labour to carbon can improve both environmental and economic outcomes. By incorporating the shadow economy into its model, the authors find that reducing labour taxes increases the demand for formal labour, encouraging workers to move from the informal sector to the formal economy. This transition increases official GDP and overall welfare. The study concludes that the potential welfare gains from such reforms are higher in countries with larger initial shadow economies and higher unemployment rates.
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Document type: Research paper
The Role of the Demand for Environmental Quality in Driving Transitions to Low-Polluting Energy Sources
The document analyzes 350 years of British history to show that transitions to low-polluting energy sources are driven by an iterative process of public demand and government response. It argues that while industrialists often weaken initial legislation, sustained demand signals both governments and polluters to seek low-cost, low-pollution alternatives. The author suggests that the transition to a low carbon economy will likely follow a similarly protracted course, influenced by economic prosperity, shocking environmental events, and the availability of competitive low-carbon technologies.
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Document type: Policy brief