Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development

The research analyzes energy service demand in the UK over two hundred years, finding that income and price elasticities generally follow inverse U-shape and U-shape curves respectively as economies develop. However, these trends are frequently disrupted by technological transitions that introduce new value attributes or expand market access to poorer populations, often leading to rebound effects where efficiency gains increase overall energy consumption. The author concludes that energy demand in developing economies is likely to continue rising rapidly, and in industrialized nations it is unlikely to decline, suggesting long-term increases in global carbon dioxide emissions unless a full transition to low-carbon technologies occurs.

• Income elasticities for energy services in the UK generally rose during early economic development, peaked in the nineteenth century, and then declined over the following century, following an inverse U-shape curve.
• Price elasticities of demand for energy services followed a U-shape curve, mirroring the trends of income elasticities, with peaks occurring around the 1870s for transport and lighting.
• Technological and energy transitions disrupted general elasticity trends by either allowing poorer consumers to enter the market or providing new attributes of value to wealthier consumers.
• Specific historical drivers of demand surges included the Cheap Trains Act of 1883, the introduction of prepayment meters in the 1890s, and the adoption of cars by poorer households starting in the 1950s.
• Energy efficiency improvements led to rebound effects that increased energy consumption for transport and lighting between 1850 and 1900, though they generally led to net savings for heating.
• The turning point where income elasticities for energy service demand fell below unity in the UK occurred at a per capita income of approximately $12,000 (in 2010 values).
• The author argues that energy service consumption in developing economies will likely continue to rise rapidly and will not decline in industrialized countries, leading to increased global carbon dioxide emissions without a full low-carbon transition.

APA

Fouquet, R. (2013). Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130111111020842851767.pdf

Chicago

Fouquet, Roger. Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2013. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130111111020842851767.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fouquet |first1=Roger |title=Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=January 2013 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130111111020842851767.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fouquet2013long, author = {Fouquet, Roger}, title = {{Long Run Demand for Energy Services: the Role of Economic and Technological Development}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2013}, month = jan, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20130111111020842851767.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }