Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems

The research develops a Composite Forest Biodiversity Indicator (CFBI) to measure the qualitative and quantitative changes in forest ecosystems across 17 European countries. Using a three-stage-least-squares (3SLS) regression model, the authors analyze how rising temperatures, socio-economic factors, and biodiversity loss impact the economic value of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. The findings indicate that while warming generally reduces biodiversity, its effect on ecosystem service values varies by region and service type, suggesting that biodiversity management can mitigate some negative climate impacts.

• The authors developed a Composite Forest Biodiversity Indicator (CFBI) based on the Natural Capital Index (NCI) to integrate both qualitative changes (species richness of trees, plants, birds, and herptiles) and quantitative changes (forest area) relative to a 2000 baseline.
• Econometric results show that rising temperatures have a statistically significant negative impact on the CFBI, and this degradation occurs at an accelerating rate.
• Forest area is positively correlated with the economic value of all ecosystem services; every additional hectare of forest increases values by 67% for provisioning services and over 100% for cultural services.
• The impact of temperature on ecosystem service values is mixed: it is positive for provisioning and regulating services—potentially due to increased productivity in boreal forests—but negative for cultural services.
• Socio-economic drivers affect forest area differently: increases in GDP and temperature are associated with forest extension, while higher population density increases pressure on forest land and leads to conversion for human settlement.
• Under economic-oriented IPCC scenarios (A1 and A2), forest ecosystems across Europe are likely to worsen, with Mediterranean Europe suffering the most significant losses in both quantity and quality.

APA

Ding, H., & Nunes, P. A. (2012). Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems. Basque Centre for Climate Change. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20121017011640599266844.pdf

Chicago

Ding, Helen, and Paulo A.L.D. Nunes. Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems. Basque Centre for Climate Change, 2012. https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20121017011640599266844.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ding |first1=Helen |last2=Nunes |first2=Paulo A.L.D. |title=Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems |publisher=Basque Centre for Climate Change |date=October 2012 |url=https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20121017011640599266844.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ding2012modeling, author = {Ding, Helen and Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.}, title = {{Modeling the Links between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Human Wellbeing in the Context of Climate Change: Results from an Econometric Analysis on the European Forest Ecosystems}}, institution = {Basque Centre for Climate Change}, year = {2012}, month = oct, url = {https://www.bc3research.org/h6T8Uy8Nm4gFs0O/20121017011640599266844.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }