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Taking stock 2023 - are TACs set to achieve MSY?
The report finds that while the EU and UK have made progress in aligning TACs with scientific advice since 2015, they missed the 2020 legal deadline to end overfishing. Analysis of 2023 TACs shows that 25% still exceed scientific advice. The report highlights a systemic lack of ambition for data-limited stocks (precautionary advice) and bycatch stocks compared to target stocks. It also criticises the lack of transparency in the TAC-setting process and the poor implementation of the landing obligation, which risks further overfishing. Key recommendations include setting TACs below scientific advice to account for ecosystem needs and climate change, and improving public access to the decision-making process.
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Document type: Report
The Emissions Aristocracy
The report identifies 30 companies, termed the "emissions aristocracy," that were responsible for over 50% of total EU ETS emissions in 2022. While the power sector has seen significant emission reductions since 2013 due to the absence of free allowances, heavy industries like steel, cement, and petrochemicals have experienced stagnant progress. The author argues that free allowances create windfall profits and remove the financial incentive to innovate, calling for a transition to full auctioning by 2030 to ensure the polluter pays principle is upheld.
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Document type: Report
HOW A FOSSIL FUEL NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY CAN PROPEL AFRICAS RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION
The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide energy access, with 600 million people remaining without power while resources are exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the global renewable energy potential but lacks the investment and technology to harness it. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on non-proliferation, fair phase-out, and a just transition to provide the international framework needed to shift financing from fossil fuels to renewables and ensure a just energy transition for the continent.
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Document type: Briefing
LE TRAITÉ DE NON-PROLIFÉRATION DES COMBUSTIBLES FOSSILES, UN TREMPLIN POUR LA TRANSITION ÉNERGÉTIQUE EN AFRIQUE
The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide universal electricity access, with 600 million people still lacking power, while most production is exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the world's renewable energy potential but receives only 2% of global renewable investments. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: non-proliferation of new infrastructure, a just phase-out of existing production, and financial/technical support for a global transition to renewables.
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Document type: Briefing
SMOKE AND MIRRORS: THE TERMS “UNABATED” FOSSIL FUELS AND “INEFFICIENT” SUBSIDIES ARE A TACTIC TO DELAY A JUST TRANSITION FROM COAL, OIL AND GAS
The document contends that qualifiers such as "unabated" and "inefficient" in climate policies allow the fossil fuel industry to maintain production and profits despite the 1.5C goal. It asserts that there is no globally agreed definition for "unabated" fossil fuels and that carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains unproven at scale. Similarly, the term "inefficient" regarding subsidies is viewed as vague, contributing to a surge in fossil fuel subsidies to over 7 trillion USD in 2022. The briefing calls for unambiguous language focusing on the absolute decline of both production and emissions to align with the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Briefing
Production Gap Report 2023
The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit. While many major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, most continue to expand production, with global coal production projected to increase until 2030 and oil and gas until at least 2050. The report argues for a managed, equitable phase-out of all fossil fuels, noting that reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical uncertainties and a poor track record of pilot project success.
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Document type: Report
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in a Changing World
The document analyzes the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), highlighting a significant misalignment between its aggressive production expansion plans and the 1.5°C global warming limit. It details how ADNOC is increasingly relying on international equity, bonds, and bank financing, thereby exposing global investors to transition and litigation risks. The brief maps these financial connections across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations and recommends that investors and banks push for greater transparency and a cessation of new fossil fuel infrastructure to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Policy brief
METALLURGICAL COAL FINANCING: Time to call it off
The report highlights a systematic loophole in financial institution policies that exclude thermal coal but continue to fund metallurgical coal, which is essential for primary steelmaking. Despite the International Energy Agency's finding that existing mines are sufficient to meet demand through 2050, 118 companies are planning new projects with a total capacity of 406 Mtpa. Between 2016 and June 2023, banks provided over US$557 billion to the 50 largest metallurgical coal developers. The document argues that technological advances in green hydrogen and electric arc furnaces make a phase-out possible by the early 2040s and urges financial institutions to immediately end dedicated financing and insurance for new metallurgical coal projects.
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Document type: Report
How to talk to Persuadables about transport
The document argues that reducing petrol car use is essential for the UK to meet its Paris Agreement commitments, citing the Climate Change Committee's recommendation for "fewer car miles travelled" and the Department for Transport's goal of an "accelerating modal shift to public and active transport". It highlights the communication challenges associated with these goals, noting how Oxford's traffic filter system in 2023 was misconstrued as "15 minute cities" and became a "global conspiracy". The guide aims to provide tactics to discuss scientifically necessary transport changes without triggering a "culture war" among Persuadables.
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Document type: Guide
Guidance to assess transition plans
The guidance introduces the 'Triple A' framework (Ambition, Action, and Accountability) and five specific 'Hallmarks' to evaluate corporate transition plans. It emphasizes that credible plans must feature science-based, time-bound targets covering all material GHG emissions (Scopes 1, 2, and 3), detailed financial plans, and strong board-level governance. The document warns against the over-reliance on carbon offsets and the use of national NDCs as a substitute for sectoral science-based pathways, while advocating for annual third-party verification to ensure transparency and accountability.
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Document type: Guide
Half of the world has passed peak fossil power
Half of the world's economies are at least five years past a peak in fossil power generation, with 107 economies representing 38% of global electricity demand having seen emissions fall by nearly 20% over the last decade. While the EU, Oceania, and North America are in a period of decline, Asia and the Middle East are the only regions yet to reach a peak, though individual countries like Viet Nam and Japan show progress. The report emphasizes that the expansion of wind and solar is the primary driver of fossil fuel displacement, noting that without these technologies, power sector emissions would be 20% higher.
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Document type: Report
Complaint letter to B Labs regarding B Corp status of agencies working for fossil fuel polluters
Clean Creatives and a group of agencies have petitioned B Lab to apply the same strict certification criteria to advertising and PR agencies as it does to fossil fuel companies, citing the conflict of interest when B Corp agencies support polluters like Shell and PetroCanada.
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Document type: Statement
A Sole Purpose Doctrine for NATO Nuclear Forces: Examining Unilateral Declarations
The document explores using unilateral declarations to reduce nuclear risks, specifically proposing a 'sole purpose' doctrine for NATO nuclear forces—limiting their role to deterring or responding to nuclear attacks. It analyzes the legal nature of such declarations, historical precedents like the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, and five potential pathways for NATO to implement this shift, ranging from high-level statements to the removal of forward-deployed gravity bombs. The authors note that such a move would require deep alliance consensus and would be complicated by current tensions with Russia, which views tactical nuclear weapons as a "competitive advantage."
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Document type: Briefing
Cutting the bills: UK households profit from clean power
The report argues that delivering existing clean power commitments would allow the UK to produce 98% of its electricity from clean sources by 2030, saving the average household £300 per year and reducing total household costs by £8.7 billion. It contrasts a 'Delivering commitments' scenario with a 'Falling short' scenario, noting that the latter would increase reliance on volatile fossil gas imports and result in the UK remaining a net importer of electricity. While grid investment would increase network costs, these are outweighed by a significant drop in wholesale electricity prices. The report identifies critical barriers to this transition, including slow permitting processes, grid connection delays, and unsuccessful renewable auction rounds, particularly for offshore wind.
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Document type: Report
A Strategic Alliance Global Order: Diplomacy in a Time of Flux
The document defines the 'Strategic Alliance Global Order' as a system where no single state possesses absolute dominance, forcing countries to build complex networks of alliances to maintain influence. It analyzes how this dynamic is accelerating due to the Ukraine war and is manifesting in the growth of minilateralism, the expansion of blocs like BRICS and the EU, and the strategic maneuvering of middle powers. The author suggests that South Africa and other Global South nations can leverage this environment to act as bridges between different global configurations to promote a rules-based international system.
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Document type: Research paper
NATURAL JUSTICE COMMENTARY ON THE NATIONAL NUCLEAR REGULATOR AMENDMENT BILL [B25-2023]
Natural Justice argues that nuclear energy is an economically unviable and environmentally dangerous alternative to renewable energy in South Africa. The commentary contends that the National Nuclear Regulator Amendment Bill encourages investment in a sector characterized by high costs, long lead times, and significant waste management risks. It specifically criticizes the extensive powers granted to the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, citing the Department's poor track record in rehabilitating abandoned mines as evidence that it cannot be trusted to manage nuclear decommissioning and waste. The authors advocate for decentralized renewable energy solutions, such as solar and wind, to address load shedding and rural energy access.
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Document type: Statement
Ready to deploy: How Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can scale up carbon capture and storage in the Gulf
The policy brief outlines how Saudi Arabia and the UAE can leverage their geological storage potential and National Oil Companies to scale up carbon capture and storage (CCS). It identifies current project statuses, storage capacities, and recommends the creation of carbon management strategies, open-access storage hubs, and enduring financial incentives to decarbonize hard-to-abate industries and the power sector.
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Document type: Policy brief
Statement on the attacks in Israel from Sherri Goodman and Christine Parthemore
The Council on Strategic Risks condemns the atrocities committed by Hamas against civilians in Israel, echoes the support of world leaders for the Israeli people, and notes the rising trend of global antisemitism.
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Document type: Statement
Consideration of accreditation proposals – Addendum VIII Re-accreditation assessment of RAPL054
The GCF Accreditation Panel recommends the re-accreditation of MUFG Bank, Ltd. (MUFG) for a second term, maintaining its status for large-scale projects and high environmental and social risk (Category I-1). While MUFG was found to meet basic and specialized fiduciary standards, as well as gender and evaluation policies, a gap was identified in its institutional grievance redress mechanism (GRM). Re-accreditation is conditional upon MUFG providing evidence of an effective GRM via a link to the Japan Center for Engagement and Remedy on Business and Human Rights (JaCER) on its website. MUFG's portfolio includes three approved activities totaling USD 1,657 million, with one project currently under cancellation due to underperformance. The bank has committed to net zero emissions in its finance portfolio by 2050 and its own operations by 2030.
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Document type: Report
A Roadmap for the Deployment of EU Hydrogen Valleys
The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) recommends that the EU prioritise 'no regrets' industrial sectors for hydrogen deployment, utilize all clean production pathways (including 'blue' hydrogen), and site production close to consumption to minimize transport inefficiencies. The report emphasizes that public funding should be matched to projects that provide socio-economic benefits to local communities and that a comprehensive EU database should be established to ensure transparency and collaboration.
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Document type: Report