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This policy brief examines the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Africa, focusing on the shift from resource trade to infrastructure and industrial cooperation. It highlights the opportunities for regional integration and industrialization, while warning of the financial risks associated with debt-based lending and the need for African governments to ensure project viability and local capacity building.

This 2018 policy brief by the SAIS China-Africa Research Initiative analyzes the nature of Chinese manufacturing investments in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Based on fieldwork from 2014 to 2016, the authors identify four distinct types of Chinese firms—categorized as 'geese'—investing in African manufacturing, ranging from large global supply chain actors to small opportunistic clusters. The report examines the impact of these investments on local value addition, technology transfer, labor relations, and the environment.

This policy brief examines the impact of Chinese investments in Tanzania's plastic recycling industry and the subsequent effects of China's 2018 import ban on waste materials. It highlights how Chinese firms have facilitated technology transfer and local business growth, while also noting significant environmental and health risks and a potential decline in local waste sourcing due to the import of cleaner waste from Europe and the US.

The document examines the rapid growth of Sino-African relations, noting that bilateral trade rose from $2 billion in 1999 to $39.7 billion in 2007. It highlights a shift from aid-driven engagement to commercial dominance, where trade and investment now outpace official development assistance. While the partnership offers opportunities for infrastructure development and poverty reduction, the paper identifies risks including unsustainable debt, the displacement of local industries by cheap Chinese imports, and a lack of transparency in lending. It recommends that African nations improve their business climates, diversify exports to move up the value chain, and implement transparency initiatives to maximize gains from the relationship.

The document analyzes Senegal's macroeconomic trajectory from the 1970s through the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights how the pandemic caused a significant drop in GDP growth in 2020, severely impacting sectors such as tourism, transport, and agriculture. To counter this, the Senegalese government and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) deployed a combination of stimulus packages, tax rebates, and liquidity measures. These interventions are credited with achieving a 1.3% real GDP growth in 2020, outperforming initial IMF forecasts of -0.4%. The paper also discusses the role of foreign direct investment, the potential of future oil and gas production, and the long-term goals of the Emerging Senegal Plan.

The report examines how Benin, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Africa responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were most vulnerable to shocks, while countries like Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal or delayed government reactions. Fiscal capacity varied significantly: South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive stimulus packages, whereas Nigeria was constrained by a volatile tax base. Most countries focused on industry support and tax relief, though South Africa uniquely allocated 60% of its package to social security. The document highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green infrastructure, diversified revenue bases, and a common African negotiating position to secure concessional finance and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from higher-income nations.

The document examines Tanzania's macroeconomic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that a 'business-as-usual' approach without lockdowns, combined with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, helped the country avert a recession in 2020. It details specific Bank of Tanzania (BoT) interventions to maintain liquidity and recommends further macroprudential policies, increased healthcare financing, and the implementation of climate-resilient economic strategies.

The document examines the intersection of Tanzania's COVID-19 recovery strategy and its climate commitments under the NDC. It argues that the pandemic's recovery phase provides a strategic opportunity to implement 'green recovery' by leveraging investment complementarities across sectors such as agriculture, health, tourism, and water. The paper highlights a significant financing gap, noting that 96% of NDC funding is expected from development partners, and advocates for innovative climate financing and public-private partnerships to de-risk investments, particularly for smallholder farmers.

The document details Germany's shift from a marginal interest in Africa during the Cold War to a more active partnership approach starting in 1998. It highlights the transition from a 'watering can' aid model to targeted support for a limited number of countries, emphasizing poverty reduction and sustainable development. Economic ties are characterized by a concentration of foreign direct investment in Libya, Egypt, and South Africa, while political engagement includes support for the G8 Africa Action Plan and NEPAD. The report specifically examines the 'strategic partnership' with South Africa, noting significant bilateral trade and investment in the automotive and chemical sectors. It also outlines Germany's security contributions through UN-mandated operations and its internal economic challenges, such as high unemployment, which influence its international agenda.

Russia is attempting to revive historical ties with Tanzania and Zambia, focusing on military collaboration, nuclear power, and education, although many agreements have not materialized. While Zanzibar has become a destination for Russian tourists, both Tanzania and Zambia have sought debt relief from Russia to fund development.

The document analyzes the macroeconomic resilience of Kenya and Tanzania from 2000 to 2022, examining the impacts of climate-related shocks, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while both countries used prudent monetary and fiscal policies, Tanzania exhibited less volatility in GDP per capita growth and maintained higher gross savings. The paper recommends simplifying tax systems, reducing non-concessional borrowing, and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to enhance resilience.

The document assesses the Tanzanian parliamentary system, analyzing its structure, the balance of power between the executive and legislature, and the effectiveness of its engagement with civil society. It highlights a significant disparity between the perceptions of parliamentarians and civil society organizations regarding the transparency and adequacy of legislative processes, particularly concerning the time allowed for public consultation on bills and the scrutiny of international loans. While formal mechanisms for oversight exist, such as standing committees and question-and-answer sessions, the paper identifies constraints including party supremacy, limited resources for MPs, and the use of 'certificates of urgency' to bypass public publication of bills.

The document finds that most African countries failed to maximize the opportunity for a green recovery following COVID-19, primarily due to a massive financing gap and a lack of mainstreaming climate action into national economic planning. While South Africa and Nigeria adopted recovery plans with green components, others like Senegal, Uganda, and Benin showed little overlap between their pandemic responses and NDCs. The author argues for reforming global development finance, implementing carbon taxes, and creating green sovereign wealth funds to bridge the gap between climate ambitions and available resources.

The document analyzes how COVID-19 and its containment measures slowed Uganda's GDP growth to 2.9% in FY2019/20, particularly impacting the services and industrial sectors. It details the government's expansionary responses, including reducing the central bank rate to 7%, providing tax relief to businesses, and implementing social safety nets like the Emyooga fund. While these measures stabilized the financial sector and protected some formal businesses, they contributed to a rise in public debt from $12.55 billion to $15.27 billion and increased external debt vulnerability. The paper concludes that approximately 3 million people fell into poverty due to the pandemic.

The document examines Tanzania's transition from socialist policies to a market-determined economy, noting a sustained GDP growth rate of 7% between 2010 and 2019. It analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this growth, causing a decline in tourism and traditional exports, while highlighting that a 'business as usual' approach helped the country avoid a recession in 2020. The paper details fiscal and monetary interventions, such as increasing health spending and lowering discount rates, and recommends further macroprudential policies and social protection to support vulnerable populations and ensure a climate-resilient recovery.

The report evaluates the fiscal responses of six African nations to the COVID-19 pandemic through a climate lens, categorising policies as green, red (unfriendly), or grey (neutral). It finds that most stimulus packages were climate neutral, with Nigeria being the only country to implement an overall green package. In contrast, Uganda's response was deemed 'red' due to investments in carbon-intensive industrial parks, and South Africa's package was neutral despite its high emissions profile. The author argues that green spending is more effective for job creation than fossil fuel investments and recommends that African governments utilise Pigouvian taxes and green financing to achieve a sustainable economic recovery.

The document advocates for the use of Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) to help African coastal and island communities adapt to climate change impacts such as sea level rise and tropical storms. It provides a set of nine key recommendations for SADC stakeholders to integrate EbA into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), align biodiversity and ocean policies, and ensure the inclusion of local communities and gender equity in project design. The statement emphasizes the need for a regional SADC EbA strategy and a resource mobilisation plan to support sustainable investments across the region.

The document examines South Africa's use of monetary and macroprudential tools to maintain financial stability during COVID-19, while highlighting the constraints imposed by pre-existing fiscal weakness and junk-status debt. It argues that while the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) adherence to international standards like Basel III provided critical shock absorbers, long-term growth requires structural reforms and credible fiscal consolidation.

The report examines macroeconomic resilience in 12 sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the use of monetary and fiscal instruments to stabilise production and inflation cycles. It identifies commodity price downcycles as the most consistent trigger for economic crises and argues that currency regimes significantly influence a nation's ability to absorb shocks. The author develops the CoMPRA-MERI index to track resilience across seven dimensions: fiscal, monetary, external debt, trade, investment, governance, and human capital. Findings suggest that most countries exhibit procyclical outcomes due to structural constraints, though Uganda is noted as a successful exception in applying countercyclical tools. The report recommends trade diversification and a shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes to enhance structural resilience.

The research introduces a multidimensional index to measure socioeconomic vulnerability to COVID-19, incorporating macroeconomic exposure, healthcare coverage, financial inclusion, social protection, and gender inclusivity. Using data from 83 countries, the study finds that African nations are among the most vulnerable, with gender inequality acting as a primary driver. Regression analysis confirms that higher vulnerability scores and more stringent containment measures were associated with more significant per capita income losses in 2020. The author argues that pandemic response strategies must move away from 'one-size-fits-all' containment measures and instead prioritize gender inclusion, social protection, and financial inclusion to build resilience.