Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies

The report examines how Benin, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Africa responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that wealthier, more open economies like South Africa and Senegal were most vulnerable to shocks, while countries like Tanzania and Benin experienced marginal growth deceleration due to minimal or delayed government reactions. Fiscal capacity varied significantly: South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive stimulus packages, whereas Nigeria was constrained by a volatile tax base. Most countries focused on industry support and tax relief, though South Africa uniquely allocated 60% of its package to social security. The document highlights a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024 and argues for a transition toward green infrastructure, diversified revenue bases, and a common African negotiating position to secure concessional finance and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from higher-income nations.

• Economic vulnerability to COVID-19 shocks was highest in diversified, open, and formalised economies such as South Africa and Senegal, and in Nigeria due to its sensitivity to oil price fluctuations. Conversely, Benin and Tanzania saw only marginal growth deceleration because their government responses were delayed or minimal.
• Fiscal stimulus implementation depended on income status and financial market depth. South Africa and Senegal deployed the most significant packages. Nigeria's capacity was limited by a high bank liquidity profile and the smallest, most volatile tax base among the group.
• While most studied countries prioritised industry support and tax relief, South Africa was an outlier by dedicating 60% of its stimulus to unemployment and social security benefits to address food stress and rising unemployment.
• African economies face a significant debt servicing peak in 2024, driven by the maturation of IMF concessional debt from 2020, Eurobonds from the 2010s, and loans from China and Arab lenders.
• COVID-19 stimulus packages generally ignored the energy transition. South Africa delayed its carbon tax implementation, while Nigeria redirected fossil fuel subsidies toward public works.
• The report recommends that African nations collectively negotiate for higher-income countries to donate excess Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to IMF facilities for concessional on-lending to bolster reserve adequacy and development finance.

APA

van Gass, C. (n.d.). Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf

Chicago

van Gass, Conrad. Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Gass |first1=Conrad |title=Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vangassndrecovering, author = {van Gass, Conrad}, title = {{Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }