Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies

This report synthesises case studies from six sub-Saharan African countries to analyse government macroeconomic policy responses to the trade and employment shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It evaluates these responses against long-term goals of social inclusivity and climate resilience, while proposing strategies for recovery and debt management between 2021 and 2026.

• Economic vulnerability to COVID-19 shocks varied by economic structure: wealthier, more open, and formalised economies like South Africa and Senegal were most pronouncedly affected, as was Nigeria due to its sensitivity to oil price fluctuations and Uganda due to a strict domestic lockdown. Conversely, Benin and Tanzania saw only marginal growth deceleration because government reactions were delayed or minimal.
• Fiscal stimulus capacity depended on income status, financial market depth, and government sector size. South Africa and Senegal implemented the most substantive packages, while Nigeria was limited by a volatile tax base and high bank liquidity. Most countries focused on industry support and tax relief, except for South Africa, which allocated 60% of its package to social security and unemployment benefits, and Benin and Uganda, which spent half their packages on health.
• The report identifies a looming 'debt repayment wall' peaking in 2024, driven by the maturation of IMF concessional debt from 2020, Eurobond issues from the 2010s, and lending from China and Arab nations. Uganda is noted as the most exposed to this risk, with IMF funding constituting 3.9% of its GDP.
• Most COVID-19 policy responses were reactive and failed to integrate climate transition goals. South Africa delayed its carbon tax implementation, while Nigeria redirected fossil fuel subsidies toward public works. The report argues that transitioning away from coal in South Africa and oil in Nigeria will require significant funding for reskilling and infrastructure re-engineering.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which began trading in 2021, is presented as a key mechanism for resilience. Its goals include removing intra-African tariffs and standardising non-tariff barriers to promote regional value chains and export orientation in industry and agriculture.
• To improve resilience, the report suggests that advanced economies should redirect a larger portion of their Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocations to African nations. A proposal from the May 2021 Summit on Financing of African Economies suggests advanced countries redirect 55% of their SDRs, with funds split between low- and middle-income African countries to support green energy and digitisation.

APA

van Gass, C. (n.d.). Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf

Chicago

van Gass, Conrad. Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Gass |first1=Conrad |title=Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vangassndrecovering, author = {van Gass, Conrad}, title = {{Recovering from COVID: Building Resilience in Select African Economies}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CoMPRA-13-van-gass2131.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }