Macroeconomic Resilience of Tanzania and Kenya

This research paper compares the macroeconomic resilience of Kenya and Tanzania over the past 20 years, analyzing the impacts of climate shocks, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while both countries used prudent monetary and fiscal policies to recover, they face challenges with high public debt, complex tax systems, and vulnerability to external trade shocks. The authors recommend simplifying tax administration, reducing non-concessional borrowing, and leveraging the AfCFTA to diversify trade.

• Kenya and Tanzania have faced significant macroeconomic shocks over the last 20 years, including the global financial crisis (2007–2010), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020‡), the Russia–Ukraine war (2022), and frequent floods and droughts (2000, 2008/09, 2012–2014, 2017‘). These events led to reduced GDP growth, loss of lives, decreased consumption, and increased public debt.
• Climate-related shocks have heavily impacted agriculture and tourism in both nations. In Kenya, the 2007/09 drought cost $500 million (2.6% of GDP), while in Tanzania, the same event cost $200 million. Tourism, which accounts for 10.4% of Kenya's GDP and 10.6% of Tanzania's GDP, was also negatively affected by frequent droughts.

APA

Ngowi, D. Y. K., Songole, A. L., Kiama, A. D., & Mzee, A. (n.d.). Macroeconomic Resilience of Tanzania and Kenya. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_27_MacroeconResilienceTanzKenya.pdf

Chicago

Ngowi, Daniel Yohane Kamene, Abel Lawrence Songole, Agatha David Kiama, and Abeid Mzee. Macroeconomic Resilience of Tanzania and Kenya. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_27_MacroeconResilienceTanzKenya.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ngowi |first1=Daniel Yohane Kamene |last2=Songole |first2=Abel Lawrence |last3=Kiama |first3=Agatha David |last4=Mzee |first4=Abeid |title=Macroeconomic Resilience of Tanzania and Kenya |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_27_MacroeconResilienceTanzKenya.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ngowindmacroeconomic, author = {Ngowi, Daniel Yohane Kamene and Songole, Abel Lawrence and Kiama, Agatha David and Mzee, Abeid}, title = {{Macroeconomic Resilience of Tanzania and Kenya}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_27_MacroeconResilienceTanzKenya.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }