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The document presents results from a pilot study of 177 armed conflict actors in 20 African countries. It finds that sexual violence is often indiscriminate, frequently committed by state armies, and can persist in post-conflict periods or years with low killing rates. The study emphasizes that sexual violence is not an inevitable part of war, as many actors do not engage in it, and recommends improved reporting mechanisms and targeted interventions to reduce its occurrence.

The document examines the potential for Uganda's oil wealth to drive economic growth, warning against the 'resource curse' and 'Dutch disease' that could undermine its agricultural sector. While noting progress in transparency legislation, it highlights critical gaps in revenue management and the need for stabilisation funds.

The report examines South Africa's 2011–2012 tenure on the UN Security Council, highlighting the tension between its aspirations for permanent membership and the rigidities of the Ezulwini Consensus. It analyzes global power shifts, specifically the decline of US omnipotence and the rise of China, and identifies key thematic priorities for South Africa, including the UN-AU relationship on peacebuilding, the 'peace versus justice' debate regarding the ICC and Article 16, holistic counter-terrorism strategies, and nuclear non-proliferation. The document argues that South Africa must balance its identity as a global actor with its leadership role in Africa to effectively influence an anachronistic Council.

The briefing examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of the 2011 referendum. It highlights disputes over voter registration, the status of the Abyei region, and post-referendum arrangements regarding oil revenue and borders. The author notes that while South Sudan possesses significant oil and mineral wealth, it faces challenges regarding governance, infrastructure, and ethnic stability. The document also details the role of international actors, such as the US and AUHIP, in attempting to prevent a return to armed conflict.

The document analyzes the mediation efforts of Thabo Mbeki, chair of the AU High Level Implementation Panel for Sudan, in negotiations between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). It outlines four potential post-referendum scenarios ranging from complete separation to a unified Sudan, while highlighting critical challenges such as oil governance, border disputes, and the risk of unilateral actions. The brief emphasizes that the outcome of the referendum will serve as a test case for the African Union's approach to secession and colonial borders across the continent.

The paper challenges the finding that warming is robustly linked to civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa by replicating and testing the model used by Burke et al. (2009). Through influence diagnostics, alternative operationalizations of civil war, and expanded sample periods, the authors find that the reported positive effect of temperature is tenuous and often disappears. The analysis suggests that the original results were driven by a few influential observations involving foreign intervention and that climate variables provide negligible predictive power compared to country-specific fixed effects and time trends.

India faces a growing gap between energy demand and indigenous supply, projecting it will become the world's third largest energy consumer by 2030. To address this, India is implementing an integrated energy policy focusing on diversifying sources—including increased imports of high-quality coal from South Africa and oil from Africa—while expanding nuclear, hydropower, and renewable energy capacities. Significant challenges remain, including unreliable infrastructure, high transmission losses, and geopolitical tensions affecting pipeline viability.

The document examines the rise of Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) and the challenges they pose to state monopolies on force. It argues that while PMSCs offer specialized skills and logistical support that could enhance African peacekeeping and Security Sector Reform (SSR), a critical lack of a binding international legal framework leads to accountability gaps and human rights abuses. The author distinguishes PMSCs from mercenaries and advocates for a supportive, non-offensive role for these companies, regulated by international law to prevent impunity.

The document assesses Saudi Arabia's transition toward a diversified, non-oil-dependent economy and the resulting commercial opportunities for South Africa. It highlights Saudi Arabia's economic reforms, including the development of six mega-cities and the opening of its investment climate through SAGIA. The authors argue that South Africa is currently lagging behind other emerging powers like China and India in exploiting these opportunities and recommends reviving dormant bilateral mechanisms such as the Joint Economic Commission to attract Saudi investment and expand South African trade in the Gulf region.

The document examines how natural resources—both through abundance and scarcity—fuel social and armed conflicts in Africa. It argues that traditional peace processes often fail by focusing on 'high politics' (like power-sharing) while ignoring the underlying political economy of resource distribution. Using the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (IC/GLR), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) as examples, the author advocates for integrating natural resource management into diplomatic and mediation frameworks to achieve sustainable peace.

The document argues that China shifted from providing unconditional support to the Sudanese government to adopting a more activist role, applying direct pressure on Khartoum to cooperate with the international community and the International Criminal Court. This transition was driven by international pressure, the need to be seen as a 'responsible stakeholder', and the realization that official Sudanese rhetoric differed from the reality in Darfur. Despite this shift, the author notes that Darfurian armed resistance movements and some civil society organizations continued to view China with distrust, occasionally targeting Chinese oil interests.

The research argues that both economic and political horizontal inequalities (HIs) are significant drivers of ethno-nationalist civil war. Using a novel combination of geo-coded ethnic settlement data and spatial wealth measures, the authors find that ethnic groups whose wealth deviates significantly from the national average—whether they are relatively affluent or impoverished—are more prone to conflict. This effect persists even when controlling for political exclusion from executive power, which itself is a strong predictor of conflict. The findings challenge contemporary 'opportunity-based' theories of civil war that dismiss grievances, suggesting instead that structural asymmetries act as mobilizational resources for collective violence.

The document analyzes China's 'exceptionalism' in Africa, a policy framework based on the 1955 Bandung conference principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and mutual benefit. While this approach seeks to differentiate China from Western powers by emphasizing political equality and a non-donor-recipient model, the author identifies three primary challenges to its sustainability: the tension between non-interference and the protection of economic interests, the gap between nominal sovereign equality and actual power asymmetry, and the lack of central government control over autonomous sub-state and private actors.

The document analyzes the 40-year history of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), identifying its strengths in promoting public engagement and its failures in baseline data quality and mitigation enforcement. It argues that Human Rights Impact Assessment (HRIA) can avoid these pitfalls by adopting specific procedural improvements, such as earlier implementation, broader definitions of affected parties, and external monitoring of mitigation measures.

The document provides a comprehensive review of India's involvement in UN peacekeeping missions in Africa, from the 1960 Congo crisis to missions in the 21st century. It identifies a shift in India's motivations from Cold War-era non-alignment and anti-colonial solidarity toward a strategic desire for global recognition and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The author details specific missions in countries such as Angola, Somalia, and Sierra Leone, highlighting both the humanitarian successes and the operational failures or controversies encountered. It concludes that India is likely to adopt a more cost-effective, case-by-case approach to future African peacekeeping to better serve its national interests.

The document examines the 'major loophole' in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) regarding the lack of a clear judicial mechanism to compensate Southern Sudanese communities for environmental degradation caused by oil companies. It details the adverse impacts of oil production—including water contamination, soil erosion, and mass displacement—and analyzes the overlapping and often conflicting jurisdictions of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). The author argues that while the CPA guarantees compensation, the absence of specific environmental laws and the political nature of the National Petroleum Commission (NPC) leave victims without recourse. The paper recommends the urgent enactment of interim environmental laws and the use of existing regional judiciaries to fill the legal vacuum before the 2011 referendum.

The document examines the viability of Sudan's April 2010 elections, arguing that they are plagued by democratic closure, security concerns, and extreme logistical complexity. It highlights the boycott of the presidential race by Yassir Arman and disputes over the 2008 census as key risk factors. The author suggests that the elections should have been postponed or simplified, as the complexity of the ballots—particularly in South Sudan—and the proximity to the January 2011 self-determination referendum undermine their purpose of promoting national unity.

The National Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs reviews the 2009-2010 period, highlighting South Africa's influence in the G20 and the BASIC group during the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. It discusses the need for reform in Bretton Woods institutions and the challenges of democratic stability in Africa, specifically in Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Sudan. The statement also outlines President Zuma's prioritisation of bilateral relations with Angola, Brazil, and the UK, and the establishment of the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA).

The author contends that South Africa is experiencing a retrenchment of its global diplomatic ambition under President Zuma, characterized by a lack of policy clarity and a 'managerial lacuna' within the government. While acknowledging the institutional legacy of the African Union left by former President Mbeki, the text warns that continental crises—including climate change, energy insecurity, and water stress—require decisive leadership that is currently absent. The author calls for greater policy coherence between the Department of International Relations and Co-Operation (DIRCO) and other state organs and the private sector, suggesting that DIRCO must modernize its diplomatic skills to include environmental and economic literacy to drive domestic growth.

The African Union (AU) faces a dilemma in Niger, where a military 'counter-coup' has overthrown President Tandja, who had previously used unconstitutional means to bypass term limits. While the AU has broadened its definition of 'unconstitutional change of government' to include incumbent leaders manipulating constitutions, it must now decide how to respond to a textbook military coup. The author argues that the AU must condemn the coup to avoid political instability, despite the potential for the military to restore constitutional rule. The situation is complicated by Niger's mineral wealth—specifically uranium, gold, and oil—and the strategic interests of foreign powers like France, which relies on Niger for uranium imports for its nuclear energy sector.