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The project targets Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu counties to combat impacts from drought, storms, and coastal erosion. It proposes a 'Source-to-Sea' framework that links upstream agricultural management with downstream coastal ecosystem restoration. Key interventions include restoring mangroves, coral reefs, and seagrasses, implementing climate-resilient farming to reduce riverbank erosion and sedimentation, and establishing sustainable finance mechanisms like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and blue carbon markets. The project aims to benefit approximately 323,100 direct beneficiaries, focusing on vulnerable fisherfolk and small-scale farmers, while addressing social issues such as gender-based violence and sex trafficking linked to economic desperation.

The report examines the escalation of extremist activity in southern Africa, highlighting the dual threats of far-right militancy and Islamist insurgency. It details the specific security challenges in South Africa, including the activities of the National Christian Resistance Movement and IS-linked cells, and provides an in-depth analysis of the insurgency in northern Mozambique. The author argues that the Mozambican conflict is fueled by transnational criminal networks, including human smuggling and the heroin trade, and criticizes the slow, bureaucratic responses of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU). The document concludes with recommendations for integrated national strategies, improved inter-agency collaboration, and a shift toward preventative governance to address the root causes of extremism.

The report examines the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, led by Alu Sunna Wa-Jama (ASWJ). It argues that the group's growth is driven by a combination of radical Wahhabist ideology, deep-seated ethnic tensions between the Mwani and Makonde groups, and systemic economic marginalisation linked to the extractive industries. The document further details how ASWJ leverages and profits from a thriving illicit economy involving drug, wildlife, and gemstone trafficking, often facilitated by corruption within the Mozambican political establishment. It concludes that heavy-handed military responses have alienated the population and recommends a holistic strategy focusing on inclusive governance, wealth distribution, and community dialogue.

The paper examines the systemic vulnerabilities of pastoralists, who manage approximately 25 percent of the world's land area. It argues that conflict in these regions is driven by a combination of ecological shocks, the encroachment of agricultural frontiers, and the political marginalization of herding communities by state governments. Using a sustainable livelihoods framework, the authors identify threats to natural, financial, physical, human, social, and political capital. The document concludes that technical interventions alone are insufficient; sustainable peace requires integrating pastoralists into wider societal and political structures, protecting their mobility and resource access, and empowering their political representation.

The capture of Kismayo by AMISOM and KDF forces is a significant victory, but the document warns that Al-Shabaab remains a relevant threat and is likely to shift toward unconventional warfare, including suicide bombings and guerrilla tactics. The security situation remains fragile due to booby traps, potential clan tensions during the formation of local authority, and the risk that Al-Shabaab will frame the KDF's involvement as an invasion to secure more arms.

Somaliland has maintained relative peace and stability since 1991 through a consensus-driven approach and effective administration, though it faces socio-economic challenges and delayed elections. Despite this, it lacks international recognition and remains in conflict with Puntland over the Sool and Sanaag regions.

The document argues that tensions between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and regional actors over the creation of the Jubaland state—comprising Gedo, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba—threaten national stability. While Kenya and Ethiopia seek a buffer zone to secure their borders against Al-Shabaab, the SFG views the current process as unilateral and unconstitutional. The briefing warns that these disputes over governance, clan representation, and sovereignty create security gaps that Al-Shabaab can exploit, as evidenced by the group's rapid takeover of Huddur following Ethiopian troop withdrawals.

The briefing examines the paradigm of humanitarian intervention and the 'responsibility to protect' (R2P) in post-cold war Africa. The author contends that these interventions often fail to address deep-seated inequalities and may inadvertently prolong conflicts by creating truces that allow weaker parties to rearm. The text suggests that non-intervention—allowing a conflict to reach a military conclusion—or targeted political and credible protection missions may be more effective alternatives for achieving durable peace.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines the African Union's (AU) strategy to increase troop levels for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) following suicide bombings in Uganda in July 2010.

The document examines the political landscape in Ethiopia after the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, noting his legacy of economic growth and strategic alignment with the West. While short-term destabilisation is deemed unlikely due to intact security infrastructure, the briefing highlights risks associated with the ethnic-based ruling coalition and the potential for parochial politics to emerge.

This monograph presents a collection of papers from 'Exercise Morning Star', a September 1996 seminar held at the South African Army College. The document provides a general overview of conflict management, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding in Africa, emphasizing that these issues are no longer exclusively military domains and require partnerships between military forces, civil society, and regional bodies.

The document argues that while Somalia has made progress in security and political stability, including the swearing-in of parliamentarians and the adoption of a provisional constitution, this progress is fragile. It identifies three primary risks: grievances stemming from the peace process and candidate selection, the 'referee/player syndrome' where transitional officials act as political competitors, and the potential for Al-Shabaab to shift to guerrilla tactics following the loss of Kismayo. The authors emphasize that managing 'bad losers' from the presidential election and planning for the evolution of Al-Shabaab are essential for long-term stability.

The paper argues that US support for an African-led peacekeeping force, specifically the African Crisis Reaction Force (ACRF), was driven by a desire to reduce the political and financial costs of direct US military involvement in African crises. This shift in strategy followed the 1992 events in Somalia and was further motivated by conflicts in the Great Lakes region and domestic US political considerations during the 1996 election cycle.

The report argues that the US strategy of combining counter-terrorism with state building in Somalia, lacking local knowledge and long-term planning, is likely to incite a violent backlash. It highlights how the US securitised 'failed states' as terrorism sources, leading to actions such as paying warlords to track al-Qa’eda and providing tacit support for the Ethiopian invasion in 2006. The author contends that only a shift toward regional diplomacy and civilian peacebuilding can restrain the current violence.

US and UK envoys visited Mogadishu to discuss the end of Somalia's transition period and allegations of corruption within the Transitional Federal Government. A World Bank report cited corruption totaling US$ 130 million, including the misuse of donor funding. The US government reaffirmed its intent to use targeted sanctions, such as travel bans and asset freezes, against those sabotaging the peace process. Additionally, the US has offered a US$ 33 million bounty for seven Al-Shabaab leaders to potentially induce internal divisions within the group.

The briefing examines the failures of state-led amnesty and reintegration processes for defectors from groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabaab in Nigeria, Kenya, Somalia, and Cameroon. It highlights how torture, extrajudicial killings, and a lack of transparency by security forces drive defectors away from official channels and toward civil society organisations or direct community return. Additionally, it notes that providing livelihood assets, such as motorcycles in Kenya or livestock in Cameroon, can spark community hostility and perceptions of favouritism.

The research identifies a complex set of drivers for al-Shabaab recruitment, including religious identity, socioeconomic conditions, and political circumstances, and provides recommendations for the Somali government and international actors to counter these trends.

The briefing examines the link between Somalia's internal instability and maritime piracy, asserting that while naval security is necessary, long-term success depends on creating viable economic livelihoods on land. It highlights the role of existing informal business networks and the need for infrastructure development in southern ports like Mogadishu and Kismayo to facilitate trade and aid. The text also identifies gaps in the international legal system and recommends strengthening the Somalia National Coast Guard and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia to secure regional trade.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the drivers of rising insecurity and terror attacks in Kenya, specifically those attributed to Al-Shabaab. The authors argue that addressing the crisis requires a combination of regional cooperation to curb arms proliferation, increased intelligence gathering with civilian support, and the mitigation of socio-economic grievances such as youth unemployment and marginalisation.

The document examines Uganda's threat to withdraw its forces from AMISOM, which follows allegations of Ugandan support for the M23 rebellion in the DRC. It highlights the risk that an untimely withdrawal without replacement could reverse security gains in Somalia and damage Uganda's reputation as a regional peace-broker. The briefing suggests the threat may be a political strategy to emphasize Uganda's contributions to international security, noting that diplomatic pressure, including a visit by US Ambassador Wendy Sherman, is likely being used to dissuade the withdrawal.