Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab

The document argues that tensions between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and regional actors over the creation of the Jubaland state—comprising Gedo, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba—threaten national stability. While Kenya and Ethiopia seek a buffer zone to secure their borders against Al-Shabaab, the SFG views the current process as unilateral and unconstitutional. The briefing warns that these disputes over governance, clan representation, and sovereignty create security gaps that Al-Shabaab can exploit, as evidenced by the group's rapid takeover of Huddur following Ethiopian troop withdrawals.

• The Somali Federal Government (SFG) considers the process of creating the Jubaland state to be "unilateral and thus unconstitutional" because it is not being driven by the leadership in Mogadishu, which prefers to facilitate SFG-mandated local administrations.
• Kenya and Ethiopia have strategic interests in Jubaland's formation to serve as a "buffer zone" to prevent Al-Shabaab incursions and secure their respective borders, a goal reflected in the 2012 IGAD Grand Stabilisation Plan for South Central Somalia.
• The SFG is concerned that a lack of representivity in the Jubaland process could lead to "Ogaden sub-clan dominance," potentially fueling clan-based grievances that would undermine national reconciliation.
• Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat and is capable of acting swiftly to seize territory when weaknesses appear, as demonstrated when fighters "quickly took over the town" of Huddur after Ethiopian troops withdrew.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A. (n.d.). Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tensions-over-the-jubaland-process-in-somalia-could-embolden-al-shabaab

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews. Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tensions-over-the-jubaland-process-in-somalia-could-embolden-al-shabaab.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |title=Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tensions-over-the-jubaland-process-in-somalia-could-embolden-al-shabaab |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoahndtensions, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews}, title = {{Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/tensions-over-the-jubaland-process-in-somalia-could-embolden-al-shabaab}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }