Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress

The document argues that while Somalia has made progress in security and political stability, including the swearing-in of parliamentarians and the adoption of a provisional constitution, this progress is fragile. It identifies three primary risks: grievances stemming from the peace process and candidate selection, the 'referee/player syndrome' where transitional officials act as political competitors, and the potential for Al-Shabaab to shift to guerrilla tactics following the loss of Kismayo. The authors emphasize that managing 'bad losers' from the presidential election and planning for the evolution of Al-Shabaab are essential for long-term stability.

• The Somali political transition has achieved several milestones, including the adoption of a provisional constitution and the swearing-in of over 200 parliamentarians on 20 August 2012, alongside security extensions beyond Mogadishu.
• The peace process is undermined by grievances regarding the selection of 135 traditional leaders, allegations of seat-buying, and the rejection of nominees by the Technical Selection Committee (TSC), which may create 'bitter losers' in the elections.
• A 'referee/player syndrome' exists where key transition officials, including then-President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, and Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, are perceived to have used their roles to control the selection of elders and favor their own political interests.
• The anticipated loss of Kismayo may not end Al-Shabaab's influence; instead, the group may shift from hybrid attacks to 'Boko Haram-style guerrilla attacks' and hit-and-run tactics, utilizing ungoverned areas like the Galgala militia bases in northern Somalia.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A., & Warries, T. (n.d.). Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews, and Tarryn Warries. Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |last2=Warries |first2=Tarryn |title=Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoahndsomalia, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }