Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the transition of Somalia toward a post-transitional government following the 2012 presidential election. While noting progress in security and political milestones, the authors identify three critical risks: grievances stemming from the peace process, the conflict of interest among transition leaders acting as both referees and players, and the potential evolution of Al-Shabaab's tactics following the loss of Kismayo.

• Somalia achieved significant political milestones in 2012, including the adoption of a provisional constitution by the National Constituent Assembly and the swearing-in of over 200 parliamentarians on 20 August 2012.
• The peace process has been marred by grievances regarding the selection of 135 traditional leaders, the composition of the Constituent Assembly, and allegations of seat-buying and intimidation of elders.
• A 'referee/player syndrome' emerged where leaders of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)—specifically President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, and Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden—were perceived to have used their roles in the transition to influence the selection of elders for their own political benefit.
• There is a strategic risk that Al-Shabaab will adapt its tactics after the loss of Kismayo, potentially shifting from a hybrid of conventional and guerrilla attacks to 'Boko Haram-style guerrilla attacks' using hit-and-run tactics to make the state ungovernable.
• Despite the capture of Kismayo, Al-Shabaab is expected to maintain influence through safe havens in ungoverned areas, such as the Galgala militia bases in northern Somalia.

APA

Atta-Asamoah, A., & Warries, T. (n.d.). Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress

Chicago

Atta-Asamoah, Andrews, and Tarryn Warries. Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress. Institute for Security Studies, n.d. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Atta-Asamoah |first1=Andrews |last2=Warries |first2=Tarryn |title=Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |url=https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{attaasamoahndsomalia, author = {Atta-Asamoah, Andrews and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.org/iss-today/somalia-next-steps-are-important-for-sustaining-progress}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }