Search Climate Insights Directory
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Besides greed and grievances
The research examines how the physical and economic characteristics of natural resources predispose them to be exploited by warring factions in Africa. It posits that resources requiring low specialized skills, high portability, and high liquidity (like alluvial diamonds) are more likely to fuel conflict. Conversely, capital-intensive resources (like deep-level gold or oil) are less attractive to rebels but can still be linked to conflict through state weakness and elite rent-seeking. The author emphasizes that while resource characteristics create vulnerabilities, the state's capacity to manage grievances and maintain territorial control determines whether these vulnerabilities lead to actual conflict.
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Document type: Research paper
China’s Economic Statecraft and African Mineral Resources: Changing Modes of Engagement
The document analyzes the evolution of China's strategies to secure mineral resources in Africa, moving from a primary reliance on 'infrastructure-for-resources' loans to a more diversified approach emphasizing mergers and acquisitions (M&A). While infrastructure-for-resources deals have been effective in locking in long-term supply, they have often failed to secure hard equity assets due to project delays and political instability. In contrast, the 2008-09 global financial crisis enabled Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to use their high liquidity to acquire significant mining and oil assets through M&As, particularly in the mining sector. The author concludes that while the Chinese state remains a critical financier, the strategy has shifted toward more market-oriented, direct acquisitions to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and gain control over commodity prices.
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Document type: Research paper
Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa: Prospects for 26 ‘more fragile’ countries
The report identifies a 'syndrome of fragility' in Africa driven by the interaction of poor governance, conflict, inequality, and poverty. Using the International Futures (IFs) system, it forecasts that while 16 of the 26 identified 'more fragile' states could transition toward resilience by 2050, ten countries—including the DRC, Somalia, and South Sudan—are at risk of remaining in a fragility trap. The analysis warns that climate change and democratic deficits could exacerbate these risks, and recommends long-term national development plans, extractive sector reform, and direct cash transfers to the poor to pivot toward a more optimistic future.
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Document type: Report
Preventing Conflict-related Sexual Violence
The document argues that conflict-related sexual violence is not inevitable, as evidenced by armed groups that successfully prohibit it. It identifies causes of such violence—ranging from opportunistic gratification to strategic instrumental use—and proposes six primary avenues for prevention: changing social and military norms, creating safer physical spaces, improving reporting mechanisms, ending impunity, ensuring commander accountability, and integrating prevention into post-war DDR processes.
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Document type: Policy brief
Preventing Perpetrators
The policy brief contends that international efforts to combat sexual violence in war have focused excessively on victim protection and criminal prosecution, leaving the motivations of perpetrators largely unexamined. To move toward effective prevention, the author proposes three focused approaches: analyzing individual personality traits during military recruitment, holding military leadership accountable to dismantle the perception that sexual violence is a permissible wartime activity, and challenging militarized masculinities that may justify such crimes. The document emphasizes that understanding the intersection of personal traits and the coercive environment of war is essential for identifying preventive remedies.
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Document type: Policy brief
APRM PEER REVIEW: 10 YEARS OF GOVERNANCE IN AFRICA
The document describes a planned conference, 'The APRM +10: Reviewing a Decade of Peer Learning and Projecting a Future of Governance in Africa', to be held in Addis Ababa in May 2013. It seeks to evaluate the APRM's progress since its 2003 establishment, specifically focusing on the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs) and the role of civil society in holding member states accountable. The briefing highlights the tension between the voluntary nature of the APRM and the compulsory nature of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), while calling for better synergies between the APRM and other AU organs, such as the Pan African Parliament and the Peace and Security Commission.
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Document type: Briefing
Blue Carbon: The Opportunity of Coastal Sinks for Africa
The policy brief highlights the significant potential of Africa's coastal ecosystems, including mangroves, seagrasses, and tidal marshes, to act as carbon sinks. It argues that these 'Blue Carbon' sources are currently undervalued and under-accounted for in international frameworks like the UNFCCC. The author recommends that African nations advocate for the expansion of IPCC guidelines and the integration of coastal sinks into REDD+ and NAMA frameworks to attract conservation financing and meet national emission targets.
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Document type: Policy brief
Toolkit on Internet Public Policy Dialogue
The document argues that Internet policy must move beyond technical management to include broad societal impacts on rights, security, and sustainable development. It advocates for a multistakeholder model involving government, the private sector, civil society, and academia to ensure legitimacy and effectiveness. The toolkit details eight specific tools—ranging from expert roundtables and policy mapping to online surveys and public forums—designed to generate evidence and foster public consent. It emphasizes 'adaptive policy making' and the principle of subsidiarity, suggesting that policy action should occur at the lowest jurisdictional level consistent with effectiveness.
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Document type: Guide
The natural resource conflict dataset: 1946-2006 Version 1.0
The document is an appendix to a research paper that lists specific conflict episodes where natural resources played a role. It categorizes these links into mechanisms such as financing, distribution, and aggravation, providing brief descriptions of how resources like oil, diamonds, timber, and land influenced the conflicts across various global regions.
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Document type: Research paper
Sustainable Procurement in Fragile States
The document presents a business case for implementing sustainable public procurement in fragile states, highlighting its potential to mitigate risks, combat corruption, and build local industrial capacity. It identifies significant challenges, including weak institutional capacity and political opposition from vested interests, and proposes the use of readiness assessments to tailor procurement policies to individual national contexts.
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Document type: Report
Sino-African Union cooperation in peace and security in Africa
The report details a conference on Sino-African Union cooperation in peace and security, exploring the intersection of China's economic engagement and Africa's security architecture. Key discussions focus on the 'African solutions to African problems' principle, the role of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) like ECOWAS and IGAD, and specific conflict zones such as the two Sudans and Somalia. While acknowledging China's role in infrastructure and condition-free aid, the report highlights concerns regarding environmental degradation, the influx of cheap goods, and the impact of arms supplies. It recommends a shift from ad-hoc crisis reaction to a proactive role for China, emphasizing capacity building for the AU's African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS).
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Document type: Report
Africa’s international borders as potential sources of conflict and future threats to peace and security
The document argues that while governance-related intra-state conflicts have become more prevalent than direct inter-state border disputes since the late 1980s, Africa's porous and artificial colonial borders continue to threaten peace and security. These boundaries facilitate the 'regionalisation of conflict' by allowing domestic instability to spill over into neighbouring states, as seen in the Great Lakes region, the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. The author contends that the African Union's (AU) policy of maintaining the colonial status quo (the 'inviolability of national boundaries') has not eliminated tensions. To address this, the AU Border Programme (AUBP) seeks to transform borders from 'barriers' into 'bridges' through proper delimitation and demarcation, which the author identifies as a necessary precondition for successful continental integration and the structural prevention of conflict.
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Document type: Research paper
TWO DECADES OF CONFLICT AND DEMOCRACY IN SIERRA LEONE
Former President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah details Sierra Leone's transition from a failed state characterized by a brutal civil war (1991–2002) to a functioning democracy. He attributes the conflict to bad governance, corruption, and the influence of the Liberian conflict, while highlighting the role of international interventions (ECOMOG, UN, UK, US) and internal reforms in restoring peace. The report emphasizes the importance of constitutional adherence, security sector reform, and the fight against corruption in sustaining stability.
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Document type: Report
DEALING WITH DISCLOSURE: IMPROVING TRANSPARENCY IN DECISION-MAKING OVER LARGE-SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS, ALLOCATIONS AND INVESTMENTS
The report argues that secrecy in large-scale land deals drives bad governance and human rights abuses. It proposes a precautionary principle of "if in doubt, disclose" and identifies four critical entry points for transparency: participatory land use planning, free prior and informed consent (FPIC), public disclosure of all contracts, and independent multi-stakeholder oversight.
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Document type: Report
Identifying opportunities for climate-smart agriculture investments in Africa
The document examines how National Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plans (NAFSIPs) in 14 African countries can be leveraged for climate-smart agriculture. Using a rapid screening methodology, the study finds that approximately 60% of planned activities in these plans address slow-onset climate change, while 18% address extreme events and 19% focus on mitigation. The paper concludes that all reviewed NAFSIPs have potential for both extreme event adaptation and climate mitigation, and recommends further analysis of cost-effectiveness, financing sources, and the integration of innovative climate financing mechanisms to transform these plans into climate-smart interventions.
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Document type: Research paper
Zimbabwe’s Marange diamonds & the need for reform of the Kimberley Process
The document examines how the Kimberley Process (KP) failed to address human rights abuses in Zimbabwe's Marange region because its definition of 'conflict diamonds' only covers those used by rebel groups. It details the involvement of Zimbabwean security forces in torture, rape, and smuggling, and the lack of transparency regarding diamond revenues. The authors recommend that the KP expand its definition to include governments, establish local monitoring mechanisms, and require transparency in mining licenses.
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Document type: Policy brief
Conservation and Peacebuilding in Sierra Leone
The report examines the intersection of biodiversity conservation and peacebuilding in post-conflict Sierra Leone. It details the current network of protected areas, which covers only 4% of the land and none of the marine territory, and identifies significant threats including demographic pressure, industrial mining, and agricultural expansion. The authors argue that while conservation can foster peace by creating jobs and promoting transparent resource governance, poorly managed efforts—such as those involving disputed boundaries or inequitable benefit-sharing—can exacerbate local tensions. The report concludes with recommendations to strengthen legislative frameworks, improve stakeholder coordination, and involve local communities in decision-making.
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Document type: Report
Going public to improve investment in agriculture
The briefing examines the surge of foreign agricultural land investments since 2008 and the subsequent lack of transparency in host government contracts. It argues that secrecy undermines accountability and human rights, while highlighting countries like Liberia that have implemented transparency legislation to improve governance without deterring investment.
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Document type: Briefing
Globalisation and human rights in Africa
This report documents the 5th African Conference of Commandants (ACoC), held from 28–30 November 2011 in Gaborone, Botswana. The conference brought together commandants from African Staff Colleges to discuss the impact of globalisation on human rights, the proliferation of small arms, gender equality in the military, and the standardisation of military education to support the African Standby Force (ASF) and peace support operations (PSOs).
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Document type: Report
South Africa’s Development Partnership Agency: A Burden or Blessing?
The document examines the transition from the African Renaissance Fund (ARF) to the South African Development Partnership Agency (SADPA). It details SADPA's intended role in coordinating international development cooperation, its potential funding of up to R3 billion, and its dual purpose of supporting African regional integration while opening economic opportunities for South African businesses.
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Document type: Research paper