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The policy brief examines the impact of the Trump administration's 'reciprocal tariffs' on Africa, noting that they destabilise global trade and signal the end of preferential market access under AGOA. It proposes a strategic response for African nations based on three pillars: rerouting trade via the AfCFTA and BRICS partners, subverting dependency through import substitution and critical mineral value-addition, and negotiating collectively through the African Union.

The document outlines the existential risk posed by the approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads held by nine nations. It explains the physics of fission and fusion weapons and analyzes the catastrophic effects of detonations, ranging from immediate blast and radiation deaths in urban centers to global climate disruption. The guide highlights the instability of 'launch on warning' postures and the potential for 'nuclear winter' and ozone depletion, arguing that even regional conflicts would cause global famine and societal collapse.

Russia is attempting to form a non-Western climate coalition through BRICS, the SCO, and the EAEU to define 'sovereign' climate priorities that protect its fossil fuel exports. The document argues that Russia's approach is obstructionist, relying on the recalculation of forest carbon sinks to meet neutrality goals on paper rather than implementing genuine mitigation. While Russia pushes for shared carbon markets and 'technological neutrality' to prolong fossil fuel use, its Asian partners have largely rejected deep regulatory harmonisation. Meanwhile, Russian non-fossil fuel exporters maintain independent ESG agendas to remain competitive against foreign carbon border adjustments, despite the government's lack of a domestic carbon price.

The report examines the intersection of Japan's energy policy and national security, arguing that a rapid shift toward renewable energy—potentially reaching a 70% electricity share by 2035—would mitigate risks from volatile fossil fuel supply chains and enhance diplomatic and military autonomy. It identifies critical vulnerabilities in current maritime fuel routes and suggests that the resulting cost savings from reduced imports could fund defense procurement. While acknowledging challenges such as China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and cybersecurity risks, the document asserts these are manageable through diversification and technical innovation. It recommends stronger coordination between the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense to integrate climate security into national strategy.

The document analyzes the systemic difficulties G20 nations face in transitioning from fossil fuels, citing economic dependencies, infrastructure lock-in, and social risks to workers. It notes a failure to meet 2009 G20 commitments to phase out subsidies, with G7 and developing nations spending hundreds of billions in 2023. The text emphasizes South Africa's 2025 G20 presidency as an opportunity to champion a people-centered approach involving green industrial hubs and socio-economic safeguards for coal-dependent regions.

The document analyzes the institutional strain on BRICS caused by its expansion, noting that while the bloc's global influence has grown, its consensus-based governance struggles with divergent member interests. It evaluates Brazil's 2025 presidency, which attempted to prioritize institutional development but saw most structural reforms deferred in the Rio Declaration. The authors contrast the informal nature of the broader bloc with the formal success of the New Development Bank (NDB) and propose six targeted, low-bureaucracy improvements—including a shared document repository and standardized onboarding—to improve operational effectiveness without sacrificing the group's flexible identity.

The report examines how G20 nations, which generate approximately two-thirds of global plastic waste, can utilize extended producer responsibility (EPR) to combat marine plastic pollution. Through a scoping review of 100 sources, it identifies a disparity in effectiveness between mandatory and voluntary EPR schemes, noting that mandatory systems generally achieve higher recycling collection rates. The document provides a detailed mapping of EPR regulations across G20 members and proposes a multi-level approach combining legislative strengthening, market incentives for recycled plastics, technological innovation in ecodesign, and the formal integration of informal waste workers to prevent plastic leakage into the oceans.

The report examines how AI accelerates biological research, creating a 'dual-use dilemma' where tools for medical advancement can be repurposed for bioweapons. It analyzes the 'risk chain' of biological weapon development, the capabilities of foundation models and biological design tools (BDTs), and the geopolitical landscape involving the US, China, and Russia. The document proposes a 'preferred' 2030 scenario characterized by geopolitical stability and responsible AI development, offering specific US policy recommendations across biosecurity foundations, technical governance, and international diplomacy.

Two years after the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable capacity by 2030, national targets remain largely stagnant. As of July 2025, the global sum of national targets has increased by only 2% since COP28, reaching 7.4 TW, which is significantly below the 11 TW required to meet the tripling goal. Only 22 countries have updated their targets, with the majority of these being EU member states revising plans through the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) process. Most non-EU updates occurred through routine planning cycles rather than as a direct response to COP pledges. Major electricity markets, including the US, Russia, and Canada, have either not set explicit targets or are unlikely to update them in 2025.

Susanne Riegraf, Deputy of the Federal Government Commissioner for Disarmament and Arms Control, delivered a keynote speech at the Berlin Biosecurity Dialogue on June 19, 2025. She highlighted the increasing risk of biological weapons due to the convergence of biotechnology, AI, and quantum computing, noting that AI-modified proteins can evade conventional detection methods. Riegraf discussed the limitations of the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), which lacks a verification regime, and the need for NATO allies to enhance collective biodefense and early-warning systems. She also detailed Germany's interagency coordination challenges and its international support efforts through the German Biosecurity Programme and the Global Health Protection Programme.

The essay examines the rise of Captain Ibrahim Traoré in Burkina Faso, analyzing the socio-political drivers of his popularity—such as the 'youth bulge', failure of previous civilian regimes, and the threat of violent religious extremism—against the actual outcomes of his rule. The author contends that military governance is fundamentally unsuitable for state administration and that under Traoré, Burkina Faso has seen a decline in security, a shrinking of civic space, and an increase in human rights violations. The text further questions the efficacy of shifting foreign alliances from France to Russia, noting that terrorism-related fatalities remain high despite the deployment of the Russian Africa Corps.

The research paper examines whether South Africa has eclipsed Nigeria as Africa's dominant power. While Nigeria maintains significant demographic and resource-based weight, the author argues that South Africa has leveraged multilateral institutions, a diverse economy, and a value-driven foreign policy to achieve greater global visibility and influence. The analysis highlights Nigeria's internal security challenges and strategic drift as factors that have diminished its international standing, while noting that South Africa faces its own domestic vulnerabilities, including energy crises and high unemployment.

The author contends that military spending alone cannot ensure European security and that current fiscal rules unfairly prioritize defense over climate and social investments. The text argues that ecological investments provide higher economic multipliers than military spending and warns that diverting resources to armaments drains capacity from renewable energy and electric vehicles. It proposes a new economic model involving a revision of fiscal rules, the issuance of new common debt, and the implementation of a minimum tax on the wealthy to fund long-term resilience.

BRICS nations now generate over half of the world's solar power, driven primarily by China, India, and Brazil. In 2024, these countries accounted for 51% of global solar electricity generation, with China alone contributing 39%. Solar power met 37% of the total increase in electricity generation across BRICS members in 2024, contributing to a total clean energy share of 70% for new generation growth. While China, India, and Brazil show strong continued growth in 2025, other members like Russia, Indonesia, and Egypt lag in solar deployment or remain dependent on fossil fuels.

The document outlines the technical framework for the Europe Electricity Interconnection Data Tool, detailing how Ember maps Bidding Zones to countries and calculates key metrics like Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) and variable RES penetration. It specifies the use of ENTSO-E and TYNDP 2024 data to provide current (2024) and future (2030, 2040) snapshots of European grid characteristics, including 'Reference', 'Projects', and 'Needs' scenarios for grid expansion.

The BRICS bloc generated over half of the world's electricity in 2024, with China dominating renewable energy production. While solar and wind capacity have grown exponentially in China, India, and Brazil since 2015, progress has stalled in Russia and South Africa. Hydropower's share of BRICS renewable generation fell from 82% in 2015 to 45% in 2023 as solar and wind expanded. China leads the bloc in total renewable energy jobs, though Brazil has the highest proportion of such jobs relative to its population.

The document argues that many fish populations not managed by a Total Allowable Catch (TAC) have been exploited unsustainably, despite legal requirements in the EU and UK to apply precautionary and ecosystem-based approaches to all harvested species. It calls for the introduction of effective management measures for all non-TAC stocks, the use of Remote Electronic Monitoring (REM) to improve data, and the implementation of clear criteria for the prohibited species list. Specific urgent actions are recommended for the European eel, including adding it to the prohibited species list and stopping all targeted fishing, and for sea bass, including limiting catches below headline scientific advice to ensure recovery.

The briefing reports that while new coal mine capacity additions declined by 46% in 2024, approximately 2,270 Mtpa of new capacity remains under development globally. This pipeline is heavily concentrated in China, India, Australia, and Russia, which together account for nearly 90% of proposed developments. The document highlights that if fully realized, these projects could emit 15.7 million tonnes of methane annually, significantly hindering the achievement of the Paris Agreement and IEA Net Zero scenarios. It emphasizes the prevalence of 'greenfield' projects and the high methane intensity of underground and metallurgical coal mines.

The policy brief examines the barriers to phasing out oil and gas within G20 nations, noting that while renewable capacity has grown, fossil fuel subsidies and deep industrial integration persist. It advocates for measurable phase-out targets, subsidy reform, and increased concessional financing for the Global South to ensure a just energy transition.

The policy brief examines the energy landscape of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the region's struggle to balance immediate energy affordability with long-term decarbonisation. It identifies new security risks, specifically China's dominance in clean energy supply chains and conflicting policy signals from the US and EU. The author advocates for a technology-neutral approach—integrating nuclear, renewables, and emerging technologies like CCS—and suggests that CEE can become a clean-tech manufacturing hub. Furthermore, it emphasizes the strategic importance of integrating Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans into the EU energy grid to enhance regional resilience.