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The Production Gap Report 2025 finds that governments are planning more fossil fuel production than in 2023, with projected 2030 levels exceeding 1.5°C-consistent pathways by over 120%. While some countries are advancing clean energy transitions, 17 of 20 profiled major producers still plan to increase the production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, undermining global climate commitments.

The appendix outlines the technical process for estimating the 'government plans and projections' (GPP) pathway using data from 19 major producer countries, which accounted for approximately 81% of global fossil fuel production in 2022. It describes the harmonization of diverse national data into exajoules (EJ) per year and the use of IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) to scale these figures to a global estimate. The document also explains the conversion of energy units into physical units and extraction-based greenhouse gas emissions using specific emission factors for coal, oil, and gas.

The document details a campaign of coordinated inauthentic activity on social media platforms—primarily X, Facebook, and YouTube—attributed to Azerbaijan during the lead-up to and duration of COP29. It highlights the use of thousands of bot-like accounts to amplify pro-government and pro-fossil fuel messaging while drowning out criticism of the regime's human rights record and climate policies. The report criticizes Big Tech companies for failing to enforce policies against coordinated inauthentic behavior and calls for better guardrails in the COP Presidency process.

Carbon Market Watch condemns FIFA's hosting decisions for the 2030 and 2034 World Cups, asserting that the events will cause severe environmental damage. The organization highlights the failure of the 2022 Qatar World Cup's carbon neutrality claims and warns that the 2030 tournament's multi-continental structure and Saudi Arabia's 2034 bid—which includes building 11 new stadiums—will lead to massive emissions from construction and air travel. The statement also links these decisions to the influence of polluting corporate sponsors like Aramco and raises concerns over migrant worker deaths in host nations.

The document examines the potential for rechannelling Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from wealthy IMF member states to Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the African Development Bank (AfDB), to address Africa's annual financing gap of over $400 billion. It details a proposal where SDRs would serve as hybrid capital, allowing the AfDB to leverage funds up to four times on capital markets. The brief identifies significant political and legal barriers, including the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary financing prohibition and the lack of formal commitment from major holders like China, Japan, and the US. It recommends that South Africa's G20 presidency use diplomacy to seek ECB clarification, coordinate a Liquidity Support Agreement (LSA) with bilateral partners, and explore innovative fiscal tools such as SDR bonds or direct allocations to prescribed holders.

The report finds that Canadian financial institutions are major global contributors to LNG expansion, with nine banks providing US$16.7 billion and 21 investors holding US$15.8 billion in LNG assets between 2021 and May 2024. Despite commitments to a 1.5°C pathway, major banks like RBC and Scotiabank have increased their financing for LNG export development. The document highlights the climate risks of this expansion, including methane leakage and the potential for stranded assets, particularly in Europe. It calls for an immediate end to financial services for new LNG projects and the adoption of transition plans aligned with the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario.

The briefing reveals that German financial institutions continue to pour billions into LNG expansion despite climate pledges. Between 2021 and 2023, nine German banks provided US$7.6 billion in financing, with Deutsche Bank and LBBW accounting for 65% of this total. Additionally, eight German investors held US$5.8 billion in assets of top LNG developers as of May 2024, led by Allianz and Deutsche Bank/DWS. The report highlights a significant gap between these institutions' net-zero commitments and their actual financial activities, noting that Deutsche Bank's financing to LNG expansion rose by 35% between 2021 and 2023. Reclaim Finance argues that this infrastructure locks in long-term fossil fuel dependence and risks creating stranded assets, especially in Europe where gas consumption is declining.

The report examines the role of Italian financial institutions in funding the global expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG). It finds that between 2021 and 2023, 12 Italian banks provided US$6 billion to the top 150 LNG developers, with Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit accounting for over 85% of this total. The document highlights a gap between these banks' net-zero pledges and their continued financing of LNG projects, including support for Eni and Enel. It warns that this support risks creating stranded assets and locking in long-term fossil fuel reliance, particularly in Europe where gas consumption is declining.

The report finds that French financial institutions are among the top global supporters of LNG expansion, with four banks providing nearly all of the US$14 billion in financing between 2021 and 2023. It highlights a significant gap between these institutions' net-zero pledges and their continued funding of LNG export and import terminals, including support for TotalEnergies. The document argues that current sector policies are insufficient due to loopholes regarding corporate financing and import terminals, and calls for a comprehensive end to financial services for new LNG projects.

The report argues that European oil and gas companies are pursuing LNG projects in Africa that expose host countries to significant financial and environmental risks. Due to delayed revenue-sharing structures and a predicted global LNG supply glut by the 2030s, African states face the prospect of stranded assets and debt traps. The document highlights a contradiction between Europe's domestic decarbonization goals and its promotion of fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa, while noting that high breakeven costs make African producers particularly vulnerable to price competition.

The document defines traditional and synthetic securitization and analyzes how these mechanisms can be used by fossil fuel companies to diversify funding and manage balance sheets. It critiques current 'green' securitization definitions for being too broad and proposes a three-dimensional framework—focusing on use of proceeds, asset character, and company commitment—to prevent the mechanism from indirectly financing fossil fuel expansion. Reclaim Finance advocates for a regulatory framework that ensures transparency and restricts securitization to sustainable energy activities.

The policy brief examines the risk of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon, highlighting the potential for regional escalation involving Iran and its allies, and the subsequent impact on the EU. It criticizes the EU's current approach to Lebanon, which it claims prioritizes migration control over structural stability, and calls for a shift toward comprehensive economic support, targeted sanctions against corrupt elites, and active diplomacy to avoid a humanitarian and energy catastrophe.

The report finds that many of the world's largest fossil fuel producers fail to address the transition of the fossil fuel sector in their climate plans. It argues that third-generation NDCs must include specific targets, pathways, and policies to wind down production in alignment with the COP 28 agreement to ensure a just and orderly transition.

The document assesses the viability of Canada's planned LNG expansion, concluding that it is incompatible with 1.5°C global warming targets and economically precarious. It highlights that new facilities would increase domestic emissions and divert clean energy resources. Economically, the brief warns of a global supply glut by 2030, with Canadian projects struggling to compete against lower-cost producers in Qatar and the United States, thereby risking significant losses for taxpayers and investors.

The statement emphasizes the necessity of accurate environmental reporting to address the 'triple planetary crisis' of pollution, climate, and biodiversity loss. It notes that environmental journalism is among the most dangerous beats, second only to war reporting, particularly for citizen journalists from Indigenous communities.

The report highlights a surplus of approximately 829 million carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), with renewable energy (RE) projects accounting for 35% of all project types. It argues that large-scale, grid-connected RE projects are generally non-additional because they are economically feasible without carbon credit revenues. The document traces this issue back to lax methodologies from the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), specifically methodology ACM0002, which has been adopted by VCM standards like Verra and Gold Standard. The report also notes human rights concerns, including forced displacements linked to large hydroelectric dams. Furthermore, it observes a trend of anonymous retirement for 89.9% of RE credits, suggesting buyers are aware of their low quality but purchase them due to low cost. The report warns that the transition of CDM projects to the Paris Agreement's Article 6 mechanism risks flooding new markets with low-quality credits.

The report finds that most voluntary carbon market standards have inadequate or non-existent grievance mechanisms, leaving local communities vulnerable. While Gold Standard and the Green Climate Fund's Independent Redress Mechanism are identified as best practices, others like the Global Carbon Council lack any mechanism, and standards such as Verra, CAR, ACR, and ART suffer from shortcomings in accessibility, transparency, and independence.

The document assesses the viability of Canadian LNG expansion, concluding that it is incompatible with climate goals and economically precarious. It highlights that new facilities would increase domestic emissions and potentially strand assets due to a projected global supply glut and declining demand in advanced economies. The brief specifically notes that Canadian projects face higher production costs than competitors in Qatar and the United States, making them reliant on substantial public subsidies. It recommends a shift in investment toward green industries to avoid economic shocks and environmental damage.

The report analyzes the current state of fossil fuel production references in the climate commitments of the 20 largest producers and provides a framework for including production phase-outs in future NDCs and LT-LEDS. It finds that most producers either omit production plans or signal continued extraction, which contradicts 1.5°C-compatible scenarios. The authors propose five key elements for new commitments: background production data, phase-out targets, restrictive policies, just transition planning, and equity-based international cooperation.

The author contends that the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would undermine China's energy security by increasing dependence on Russia, create unnecessary capital expenditure in an oversaturated market, and conflict with China's goal to peak carbon emissions by 2030.