Production Gap Report 2025

The Production Gap Report 2025 by the Stockholm Environment Institute finds that global fossil fuel production plans are increasingly divergent from the Paris Agreement's goals. Governments are collectively planning higher levels of production for coal, oil, and gas than in 2023, with projected 2030 production exceeding 1.5ºC-consistent levels by more than 120%.

• Global fossil fuel production plans for 2030 have increased since 2023 and significantly exceed the limits required to restrict warming to 1.5ºC or 2ºC. Specifically, projected 2030 production is more than 120% above the median 1.5ºC pathway and 77% above the median 2ºC pathway.
• Governments have increased their planned production levels for coal and gas compared to 2023 estimates. Planned coal production for 2030 is 7% higher and planned gas production is 5% higher than the 2023 Production Gap Report analysis.
• Planned production levels for 2030 are drastically higher than 1.5ºC-consistent pathways across all three fuel types: coal is 500% higher, gas is 92% higher, and oil is 31% higher.
• Of the 20 major producer countries profiled, 17 still plan to increase the production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030, and 13 plan significant increases in gas production. Furthermore, 11 of these countries expect higher production of at least one fuel in 2030 than they planned in 2023.
• Many governments continue to provide financial support for fossil fuels despite international commitments to phase out inefficient subsidies. Examples include direct infrastructure investment in Canada, streamlining contracting in Brazil, direct subsidies for state-owned enterprises in China, India, and Mexico, tax incentives in Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation, and opening new exploration areas in the US and Norway.
• There are some positive trends among the profiled countries: six are now developing production scenarios aligned with net zero targets (up from four in 2023). Specific examples include Colombia's Just Energy Transition roadmap, Germany's accelerated coal phase-out, Brazil's Energy Transition Acceleration Program, and China's rapid deployment of renewables.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2025). Production Gap Report 2025. https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SEI_PGR2025_ExecSum_r6-rev.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Production Gap Report 2025. 2025. https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SEI_PGR2025_ExecSum_r6-rev.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Production Gap Report 2025 |date=2025 |url=https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SEI_PGR2025_ExecSum_r6-rev.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2025production, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Production Gap Report 2025}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2025}, url = {https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/SEI_PGR2025_ExecSum_r6-rev.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }