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This policy brief examines the challenges of rural insurance in Brazil amidst climate change, using soybean production as a case study. It finds that while the insurance market has grown, it remains geographically concentrated in the South and Center-West, leaving high-production, high-risk areas like MATOPIBA underserved. Using machine learning, the authors identify precipitation, wind, and fire risk as primary drivers of losses. The report recommends expanding insurance coverage to vulnerable regions, utilizing yield data for pricing in areas with limited insurance history, and aligning government subsidies with sustainable agricultural practices.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) evaluates the 10-year implementation status of Brazil's Forest Code (Law no. 12,651 of 2012). It identifies the analysis of Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) data as the primary bottleneck and provides a seven-point priority agenda for the Lula administration to accelerate environmental regularization and the implementation of Environmental Compliance Programs (PRA).

This 2023 report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) provides a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (Law No. 12.651/2012) across Brazilian states. It focuses on the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA), detailing the progress in registration, data analysis, and the formalization of environmental recovery commitments. The document highlights a significant acceleration in 2023, with several states adopting automated analysis tools and expanding the number of signed commitment terms, while identifying persistent bottlenecks in communication with landowners and the lack of technical staff in certain regions.

A study of soy farmers in Brazil's Matopiba region finds that land-use decisions are driven by profit and legal permissiveness rather than sustainability, leading to the erasure of the biodiverse Cerrado savanna. The authors conclude that voluntary conservation efforts are insufficient and that strict regulatory enforcement and supply-chain requirements are necessary to prevent further deforestation.

This policy brief analyzes the 10-year implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code, highlighting a severe lack of uniformity across states. While some states have fully implemented the CAR and PRA systems, others remain stagnant. The analysis of CAR data is identified as the primary bottleneck, with only 2% of national registries fully concluded. The document proposes a seven-point agenda for the federal government, including the creation of a national implementation plan, strengthening the SICAR system, and improving the integration of the Forest Code with anti-deforestation policies and rural credit incentives.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon biome from 2012 to 2021, categorizing forest loss by land tenure to identify priority areas for federal and state government intervention.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the financing landscape for highway and railroad projects in Brazil's North Region and nationwide between 2012 and 2021. It identifies a heavy reliance on public funding, particularly from the federal government and BNDES, while noting a growing but still limited role for private capital via incentivized debentures. The report emphasizes that infrastructure in the Amazon is a primary driver of deforestation and calls for strengthened governance, increased transparency, and rigorous socio-environmental criteria to ensure that future investments do not cause further ecological damage.

BNDES financing in the Legal Amazon from 2009 to 2019 was heavily concentrated in large-scale hydroelectric infrastructure that serves the wider Brazilian grid, despite the region's own significant energy poverty and lack of basic services. While the North Region receives the lowest total share of BNDES disbursements, these funds are highly significant relative to its regional GDP. Recent BNDES initiatives are shifting toward the energy transition, including agreements to replace diesel generation with renewables and a pilot project for solar microgeneration. The report emphasizes that future investments should prioritize reducing regional inequalities in energy, internet access, and basic sanitation.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the activities of the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) in the Legal Amazon from 2009 to 2019. It highlights a concentration of funding in large-scale hydroelectric infrastructure that serves the rest of Brazil, while a significant portion of the local population remains without reliable electricity or basic sanitation. The document suggests that BNDES has an opportunity to pivot toward the energy transition and regional development by investing in renewable energy and digital connectivity.

This document is a legal bibliography listing the federal and state laws, decrees, and regulations consulted for a 2022 report on the implementation of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA) across various Brazilian states.

This report analyzes the link between forest fires and deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (2013-2020). It finds that while only 11% of fire-affected forest is directly converted to clear-cut deforestation within three years, fire is a strong indicator of regional risk, with high rates of nearby deforestation. This association is particularly strong in rural settlements and public land holdings, suggesting fire's role in land grabbing. Regional disparities exist, with significant intensification of this pattern in states like Acre and Pará.

This case study by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the governance and environmental risks associated with four federal transport infrastructure projects in the state of Pará: Ferrogrão, BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230. Using a 'market access approach' to quantify deforestation risks, the study finds that these projects collectively threaten nearly 7,000 square kilometers of Amazonian native vegetation, with over half of the impact concentrated in Pará. The report highlights significant transparency issues regarding project documentation and urges the Pará state government to engage in dialogue with the federal government to integrate deforestation control funding into project designs.

This case study by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the governance, areas of influence, and environmental risks associated with four federal transport infrastructure projects in the state of Pará: Ferrogrão, BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230. Using a 'market access approach' to quantify deforestation risks, the study finds that these projects collectively threaten nearly 7,000 square kilometers of native Amazon vegetation, with over half of that impact occurring in Pará. The report highlights significant transparency issues regarding project documentation and argues that the state government should engage in earlier dialogue with the federal government to incorporate mitigation costs and deforestation control into project designs.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the governance, influence areas, and environmental risks of four federal transport infrastructure projects in the state of Pará: the Ferrogrão railway and the BR-155/158, BR-163/230/MT/PA, and BR-230 highways. The study highlights a systemic lack of transparency in socio-environmental documentation and uses a market-access methodology to quantify the risk of deforestation associated with these projects.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the rural credit market in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, highlighting a concentration of financial flows toward large-scale producers and soy production, while noting a scarcity of credit for small and medium-sized family farmers.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the characteristics of rural credit in the Brazilian Cerrado biome. It highlights a significant concentration of financial flows toward large producers and the expansion of soybean production, contrasting this with limited credit access for small and medium-sized family farmers. The study also notes a growing trend of private financing sources, although public banks continue to dominate the distribution of credit.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the rural credit market in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, highlighting a significant concentration of financial flows toward large-scale producers and soy production, contrasted with limited credit access for small and medium-sized family farmers.

This policy brief by the Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyzes the potential for increasing cattle productivity in the Legal Amazon. It finds that current livestock production is homogeneously low-productivity and extensive, meaning that simply disseminating existing local best practices would only yield modest gains. The authors argue that significant productivity increases require a new business model involving technologies not yet used at scale and a crackdown on land grabbing and illegal deforestation.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative/PUC-Rio analyzes the productivity of livestock farming in the Legal Amazon. It finds that the region is dominated by a homogeneous, low-productivity extensive business model, meaning that simply scaling existing local best practices would yield limited gains. The authors argue that significant productivity increases require a new business model involving technologies not yet used at scale and the combatting of land grabbing (grilagem).

This 2021 report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) provides a comprehensive analysis of the implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (Law No. 12.651/2012) across Brazilian states. It focuses on the progress of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and the Environmental Regularization Program (PRA), identifying significant bottlenecks in the analysis and validation of registries and the low rate of producer adherence to regularization programs. The report highlights disparities between states, noting that while registration is advanced nationwide, the transition to actual environmental recovery remains a major challenge.