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The report analyzes Mozambique's development prospects through 2043 using the International Futures (IFs) modeling platform. It finds that under the current trajectory, Mozambique is unlikely to meet most of its national development goals due to governance failures, infrastructure gaps, and low agricultural productivity. While liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects are expected to boost GDP, they are not projected to significantly reduce extreme poverty without broader structural reforms. The report evaluates eight sectoral scenarios, concluding that infrastructure investment has the highest impact on GDP growth, while a combined approach across all sectors—including agriculture, governance, and trade—offers the most substantial improvements in poverty reduction and per capita income.

The document critiques Draft 1 of Mozambique's proposed Land Law, stating it enables land privatisation, restricts access to 'unavailable land', and lacks legal guarantees for community decision-making and protection against forced displacement. It highlights that previous consultations were inadequate, reaching only approximately 75,000 people out of a population of 32 million, and urges citizens to exercise their constitutional right to participate in the reform process.

Natural Justice's 2024-2028 strategy focuses on the legal empowerment of African communities to defend their rights against harmful extractive projects and climate impacts. The organisation employs a 'Litigation Plus' approach, combining strategic legal action with community-led research and policy influencing. Key priorities include securing land tenure, protecting traditional knowledge via the Nagoya Protocol, and promoting a just energy transition. The strategy is implemented through three main programmes: Standing with Communities, Defending Rights against Environmental and Social Impacts, and Affirming and Securing Rights to Lands, Resources and Knowledge.

The report examines the energy landscapes of seven southern African states, highlighting a stark divide between vast renewable energy potential and a continued reliance on fossil fuels or traditional biomass. While most surveyed countries have established renewable energy targets and some have liberalized their energy markets, the transition is often hindered by governance challenges, high rural-urban electricity gaps, and the pursuit of new oil and gas reserves. The document advocates for an 'energy justice' framework to ensure that the shift to low-carbon energy is inclusive, transparent, and protects the rights of marginalized communities and future generations.

Natural Justice's 2024-2028 strategy focuses on empowering African indigenous peoples and local communities to defend their land, resource, and human rights against environmental threats and extractive projects. The organization employs a 'litigation plus' approach, combining strategic legal action with community legal education and advocacy. Key priorities include fighting fossil fuel expansion, securing land tenure, and protecting traditional knowledge, with a specific emphasis on feminist leadership and the decolonization of environmental justice.

The report outlines the potential for green mini-grids to provide electricity to millions in Africa, emphasizing the need for patient growth capital, concessional finance, and robust regulatory frameworks. It highlights the shift toward 'energy services' models that integrate productive use of energy (PURE) to increase profitability and the critical need for domestic workforce skilling and technological innovation to reduce costs.

The report reveals a decline in international public finance for energy access, with electricity commitments peaking in 2018 and clean cooking funding showing extreme volatility. Significant regional and developmental disparities exist, with a heavy concentration of funds in a few countries like India, China, and Bangladesh, and a predominance of debt-based financing over grants. Case studies of Bangladesh and Kenya highlight that while both achieved significant access gains through concerted policy and financial efforts, they face ongoing challenges with system inefficiency and affordability.

The document analyzes the increasing debt distress in Africa, noting that public debt reached 65.6% of GDP in 2022. It highlights the shift toward non-concessional debt and the role of private creditors, who now hold over 40% of Africa's total external debt. The brief argues that the G20's Common Framework needs reform to be more inclusive of middle-income countries and private creditors. It advocates for the establishment of an African Credit Rating Agency to counter perceived biases from global agencies and the creation of an African Debt Monitoring Mechanism by June 2024 to improve transparency. Key recommendations include restructuring multilateral development banks, extending debt repayment periods, and increasing IMF Poverty Reduction Growth Trust access limits.

Reclaim Finance challenges the claim that French banks are leaders in the ecological transition, noting that their financing ratio of sustainable electricity to fossil fuels (0.94:1) is far below the 6:1 ratio required by the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario for 2030. The document highlights continued exposure to coal and hydrocarbons, specifically criticizing BPCE for lacking commitments to limit fossil fuel expansion and Crédit Agricole for supporting TotalEnergies' Papua LNG project.

The briefing reports a global pipeline of 917 mtpa in new LNG export capacity and 705 mtpa in import capacity, representing an estimated US$1 trillion investment. It warns that a wave of new projects coming online by the middle of the decade, primarily in the United States and Qatar, could lead to market saturation and unprofitable stranded assets. The report highlights that while Asia and Europe are the primary developers of import capacity, demand in these regions is uncertain due to decarbonization goals and price sensitivity. It further notes that many projects are already facing delays or cancellations, and that the buildout in the U.S. may conflict with national interests by raising domestic gas prices and increasing emissions.

The report examines the risks associated with LNG export projects in Mozambique, particularly those involving the European Union. It finds that these projects have caused social displacement, environmental damage, and increased sovereign debt without delivering promised economic development. The authors argue that the 'gas for development' narrative is unsupported by evidence, as Cabo Delgado's socio-economic conditions have worsened since gas discoveries. Financial risks include volatile global gas prices, declining long-term demand due to the energy transition, and contractual designs that delay government revenues until the 2030s. Furthermore, the report highlights an erosion of sovereignty through investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms and the prioritization of infrastructure security over civilian protection. It recommends that Mozambique reassess operational projects, halt new LNG developments, and prioritize sustainable economic diversification.

The report argues that while healthcare facilities in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa face severe energy deficits and climate vulnerabilities, there is a strong climate rationale for investing in low-carbon and resilient technologies. It identifies various climate finance sources—including bilateral finance, multilateral funds, private foundations, carbon/REC markets, and green bonds—and analyzes the barriers to accessing these funds, such as high transaction costs for small-scale projects and limited local technical capacity. The document proposes a programmatic approach to aggregate facilities to achieve economies of scale and recommends integrating energy, health, and climate expertise to mobilize the necessary capital.

This briefing, submitted by Natural Justice and the Environmental Lawyers Collective for Africa (E.L.C.A), provides commentary on a zero draft study by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR) regarding the impact of climate change on human and people's rights in Africa. The document evaluates the study's identification of vulnerable groups and rights, critiques its approach to corporate accountability and extractive industries, and offers recommendations to strengthen the protection of indigenous peoples, children, and the environment through legal and monitoring frameworks.

Ember's analysis reveals that 97% of reported coal mine methane (CMM) emissions are based on emission factors rather than direct measurements, leading to widespread underreporting. The report finds that 22 countries may have more than double the emissions they officially report, with extreme discrepancies noted in South Africa, Indonesia, and Germany. Only 44 countries published CMM data for 2021, and many major producers, including China and India, have not reported recently.

The report outlines the strategic positions of African nations and multilateral structures at COP28, emphasizing the Nairobi Declaration and the AU's Climate Change and Resilient Strategy and Action Plan. It details the leadership of specific countries in areas such as green hydrogen (Morocco, Kenya), critical minerals (Namibia), and forest restoration (Ethiopia, Rwanda, Republic of Congo), while analyzing the influence of negotiating blocs like the G77 and China, BASIC, and the LDC group in securing climate finance and adaptation support.

The document argues that the Mozambique LNG project is irresponsible and harmful, citing the failure of TotalEnergies and the Mozambican government to address conflict drivers in Cabo Delgado, the displacement of families, and the project's significant contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. It calls for financial institutions to cancel their support and conduct independent reassessments.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The document examines Africa's natural gas landscape, noting that while the continent holds approximately 10% of global proven gas reserves, a lack of domestic infrastructure means most production is destined for export. It highlights a potential global LNG supply glut starting in mid-2025 and 2026, which may lower prices and profits for exporters. Key reserves are concentrated in Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya, while new discoveries are emerging in countries like Mozambique and Senegal. Specific large-scale projects are detailed for Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

The report identifies Africa as a net energy exporter, though it forecasts that total energy demand will exceed production by 2039. While a small group of countries like Algeria, Nigeria, and Angola maintain high export values, a significant number of African nations remain heavily dependent on energy imports, a group expected to expand by 2043.

The document lists the top five African countries possessing 90% of Africa's proven coal reserves, with South Africa holding the largest share.