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Ghana's December 2024 elections are occurring during a period of extreme economic distress and high political tension. The race is primarily between the NPP's Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and the NDC's John Dramani Mahama. Public trust in the Electoral Commission and the judiciary is low, and the NDC has previously threatened to boycott the courts if the results are unfavourable. The country faces risks of election-related violence, particularly in the North, and the outcome is seen as a critical test for democratic resilience in West Africa.

The document argues that Africa-EU and Africa-Germany relations are still defined by 'coloniality', manifesting as power imbalances that marginalise African agency. It critiques the EU's security-development nexus and the 'Samoa Agreement' for prioritising European interests, and examines German development aid through the GIZ as often intrusive or tokenistic. The author highlights the exploitation of raw materials and the use of intelligence services to acquire indigenous medicines as contemporary colonial practices. To decolonise, the paper recommends respecting African demands on trade and resource beneficiation, ending the 'Europeanisation' of security missions, and shifting from development aid to industrialisation projects.

The LoCAL+ programme aims to increase the climate resilience of approximately 3.49 million people across 85 local governments in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger. The initiative combines a performance-based climate resilience grant (PBCRG) system for public investments with Blended Finance Facilities to support local SMEs and producers' organisations. The programme focuses on seven key intervention areas: climate-adapted agriculture, forestry and ecosystem conservation, agroforestry, water and health, energy efficiencies and renewables, climate-resilient infrastructure, and coastal areas in Ivory Coast. It is implemented by the West African Development Bank (BOAD) as the Accredited Entity, with UNCDF as an implementing partner and various national agencies as executing entities.

The document examines the resurgence of military coups in Africa since 2020 and the fragmented reactions of BRICS nations. It argues that while Russia engages in 'coup protection schemes' and China maintains a 'non-interventionist policy' to secure economic interests, India, Brazil, and South Africa have taken more muted or supportive stances toward constitutional order. This lack of unity suggests BRICS operates as a 'house of cards' with disaggregated interests, potentially limiting its ability to effectively challenge US and European influence in Africa.

The paper explores the intersection of gender inequality and climate change, particularly in Africa, highlighting how women are disproportionately affected by climate-related displacement, food insecurity, and energy poverty. It details structural barriers in employment, land ownership, and political representation that limit women's adaptive capacity. The document reviews international frameworks like the Paris Agreement and the Lima Work Programme on Gender, and calls for COP29 to prioritize honoring financial pledges, increasing women's access to clean energy, and investing in gender-disaggregated data to ensure a just social order.

The report analyzes the complex landscape of African migration governance, highlighting the role of the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in promoting free movement and regional integration. It identifies significant gaps between the adoption of policy frameworks—such as the 1991 Abuja Treaty and the 2018 Free Movement Protocol—and their actual implementation. The document emphasizes the growing impact of climate change as a driver of mobility and the risks posed by the increasing use of immigration detention. It concludes that while subregional progress exists, overlapping memberships in RECs and a lack of compliance monitoring hinder the achievement of a borderless continent.

The report assesses gender dynamics and climate vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Niger. It identifies a consistent gap between national gender policies and real-world implementation, noting that women are often framed as victims rather than active agents of adaptation. Key challenges include limited access to land, finance, and education, alongside high rates of gender-based violence. The document recommends institutionalizing local gender assessments, ensuring women's representation in project design, and using gender-disaggregated data to guide the LoCAL+ programme's investments in climate resilience.

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The report identifies soil acidity as a critical threat to food security and agricultural sustainability in East Africa, noting that over 60% of arable land in the region is degraded. It proposes a holistic approach centered on 'high-priority areas' (HPAs) where interventions can be scaled. The core strategy involves combining the application of agricultural lime with integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) practices, such as crop rotation and organic matter application. To achieve this, the report recommends scaling up soil testing via rapid kits, increasing farmer awareness through community-based extension agents, and developing a robust lime value chain by engaging private sector actors and optimizing last-mile distribution.

The document examines the role of migrant remittances as a resilient financial flow to Africa, highlighting their potential to bypass bureaucratic barriers in climate adaptation. It notes that while remittances reached US$100.1 billion in 2022, high transaction costs and low climate literacy hinder their effectiveness. The brief recommends lowering remittance costs, enhancing diaspora engagement through mechanisms like diaspora bonds, and improving climate literacy to empower local communities in building resilience.

The document analyzes China's dominance in Africa's critical minerals landscape, highlighting its role as a primary investor and buyer. It argues that while Africa's reserves are vital for the global energy transition, the current model of exporting raw materials without local processing limits socioeconomic benefits and risks environmental degradation. The brief recommends that African governments pursue strategic partnerships, invest in research and development, and build energy infrastructure to move up the value chain, while urging international partners to support technology transfer and local capacity building.

The policy brief argues that the African mining sector is hindered by political and institutional lock-ins, specifically the slow ratification of AMDC statutes. It proposes integrating strategic foresight—a systematic approach to anticipating future trends—into the AMDC's four-pillar mandate to move from reactive to proactive governance. The authors advocate for a 'foresight-led social contract' to ensure mineral wealth benefits local communities and supports the green energy transition. Key recommendations include establishing an anticipatory governance unit, reforming financial architectures to reduce debt dependency, and coordinating regional responses to transnational risks such as deep-sea mining and Global North competition.

The report tracks the shift in China-Africa energy cooperation from large-scale infrastructure and thermal power projects toward 'small and beautiful' green initiatives. It highlights a growing alignment between China's commitment to stop funding overseas coal-fired projects and Africa's strategic priorities for climate finance, renewable energy access, and resilient infrastructure. While China offers technological and financial aid, the report notes that some African priorities, such as critical minerals, remain insufficiently addressed.

The Sahel region is experiencing a major geopolitical shift as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and severed ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This move reflects deep-seated anti-French and anti-EU sentiment, driven by perceptions of neo-colonialism and a focus on security and migration over socio-economic development. As the EU's influence wanes, Russia has expanded its presence through military cooperation and strategic economic interests, including potential control over Niger's uranium. The author argues that the EU and ECOWAS must move away from punitive sanctions and colonial-era approaches toward equal partnerships and dialogue to maintain stability and influence in the region.

The research paper examines the role of vertical industrial policies in Africa, contrasting them with horizontal policies and global value chain (GVC) theories. It highlights how Nigeria and Morocco successfully developed their cement sectors through targeted government interventions, while noting that replicating these specific tools in other sectors, such as sugar and tomato paste in Nigeria, has failed due to different raw material coordination needs.

The document examines the gap between high popular support for democracy in Africa and the low satisfaction with its actual implementation. It highlights a trend of disputed elections and popularly celebrated coups as symptoms of leadership failure and the inability of democratic systems to provide basic socio-economic rights. Using examples from Zimbabwe and Gabon, it argues that when elections fail to reflect the will of the people or improve living conditions, the stability of democratic institutions is threatened.

The US Treasury is criticized for not opposing World Bank Group financing of fossil fuel projects, including recent International Finance Corporation commitments to oil and gas in Nigeria and Mali, and a feasibility study for a Liquid Natural Gas terminal in Morocco.

Between March and May 2024, global temperature records were broken for three consecutive months. Using the Climate Shift Index (CSI), the analysis found that approximately one in four people worldwide experienced temperatures at least three times more likely due to climate change (CSI level 3+) daily. Exposure peaked on April 6, 2024, with 2.7 billion people affected. The most severe impacts were concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, and South America, with 44% of Africa's population experiencing the most extreme attributable heat (CSI level 5 for 60+ days). The report also highlights a strong regional contrast in the U.S., where coastal areas and islands showed higher CSI signals despite lower temperature anomalies compared to the Upper Midwest.

The document outlines Ghana's position as a leading gold exporter and the resulting economic benefits, contrasted with severe environmental and health impacts caused by mining, particularly illegal 'galamsey' operations. It details the legislative framework, centered on the Minerals and Mining Act 2006, and the institutional roles of entities like the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources and the Minerals Commission. The briefing introduces a series of thematic papers focusing on mineral rights, benefit sharing, stakeholder engagement, and mining in forest reserves.

The report analyzes the ASM value chain, from exploration to mine closure, highlighting a stark divide between rudimentary artisanal methods and more capitalized small-scale operations. It identifies critical gaps in technology for ore extraction, transportation, and beneficiation, while showcasing promising innovations in mercury-free gold processing, blockchain-based traceability, and digital mining cadastres. The document warns that while mechanization can boost yields and critical mineral supply, it risks displacing labor—particularly women—and increasing environmental degradation if not managed through inclusive policies and strategic zoning.