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The report examines the global governance of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), noting a trend of weakening norms and rising threats. While highlighting successes like the 97% destruction of declared chemical weapons stockpiles and the near-universality of the NPT, CWC, and BWC, it warns of a new nuclear arms race and the increasing use of chemical weapons. It identifies critical gaps in verification—particularly for biological weapons—and the risks posed by technological convergence, such as synthetic biology and AI. The author recommends augmenting existing regimes with ad hoc mechanisms, increasing experiential learning for policymakers, and focusing on eliminating specific destabilizing capabilities like nuclear cruise missiles.

The 1969 OAU Refugee Convention has been ratified by 47 of 55 AU member states and is credited with expanding the legal definition of a refugee to include those fleeing external aggression or public order disturbances. Despite its wide domestication, implementation is hindered by xenophobia, security concerns, and declining international funding. The report argues that the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) and its Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) can reinforce the Convention by promoting responsibility sharing, regional approaches, and socio-economic inclusion of refugees.

The document examines Russia's return to Africa through the lens of its 'multi-vector' foreign policy, which seeks to establish a multipolar world order and reduce dependence on the West. It details Russia's focus on niche markets—specifically nuclear energy, arms, and extractives—and its use of 'state champions' like Rosatom and Rosneft. The paper highlights Russia's military-security cooperation, including the use of private military companies in the Central African Republic and Libya, and its strategic relationship with South Africa via the BRICS framework. It concludes that while Russia offers an alternative to Western conditionalities, its engagement often prioritizes elite networks and resource extraction over broad development.

The document examines the trade-offs for African nations joining the AIIB, noting that while the bank offers a new source of low-cost finance to address an annual infrastructure deficit of $68 to $108 billion, its lack of technical capacity-building and specific instruments for low-income countries outside Asia limits its appeal. It concludes that middle-income African countries are better positioned to benefit from membership than low-income countries.

The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.

The August 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union's (AU) struggle to define 'unconstitutional changes of government' in the context of popular uprisings in Algeria and Sudan. It highlights the risks of increasing foreign military presence, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and the resulting rivalry between global powers like the US and China. The report also advocates for the inclusion of women in Sudan's peace process and warns of potential political instability in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the 2020 elections. Finally, it discusses the limited access civil society organizations have to AU and regional economic community structures.

The document examines how Egypt's pursuit of nuclear energy, notably the $21 billion El Dabaa project with Russia, is complicated by climate vulnerabilities and security dynamics. It highlights risks such as sea level rise threatening coastal power plants and rising temperatures affecting reactor safety. The report recommends that the United States engage in nonproliferation efforts and that international entities help Egypt implement comprehensive climate security assessments for its nuclear infrastructure.

The policy brief argues that South Africa's 2017 White Paper on International Migration (WPIM) neglects the 'feminisation of migration,' leaving women migrants vulnerable to exploitation and violence. While women's migration to South Africa has quadrupled since 1990, current legislation remains gender-neutral, failing to address gender-specific drivers or the economic potential of women's remittances and entrepreneurship. The author highlights risks in the informal sector and the potential for human rights violations in proposed border processing centres, urging the government to adopt gender-disaggregated data and targeted protection strategies.

Egypt is advancing its nuclear energy sector, primarily through the El Dabaa plant project with Russian support, to meet growing electricity demands and reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, this expansion occurs against a backdrop of domestic political consolidation, regional instability in Libya and Sudan, and severe climate risks. The Nile Delta is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, which could threaten coastal nuclear infrastructure and destabilize the economy. The report urges the U.S. to renew its leadership in nuclear nonproliferation and encourages Egypt to integrate comprehensive climate security assessments into its nuclear planning.

Between 2016 and 2019, irregular migration from North Africa to Europe increased, characterized by a shift toward direct departures from home countries and a diversifying migrant demographic that now includes more women, children, and university graduates. The report identifies economic pessimism, structural inequality, and political exclusion as primary drivers, further amplified by a social media ecosystem that romanticizes Europe and provides practical smuggling advice. While European states prioritize border hardening, the report argues that such securitized approaches ignore underlying causes and may destabilize North African governments, which view migration as a social safety valve. It recommends transitioning from short-term technical fixes to comprehensive strategic programs addressing the rule of law and structural inequality.

The report examines the complex relationship between the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), specifically the application of 'subsidiarity'—the principle that regional structures should lead in their own jurisdictions. It highlights systemic failures in North Africa due to the inactivity of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), tensions between the AU and SADC over elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the AU's successful re-assumption of leadership in the Central African Republic. The document also notes the East African Community's (EAC) internal trade disputes, ECOWAS's struggle to adapt to violent extremism in the Sahel, and the general lack of civil society engagement within the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The paper examines the evolution of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA) and the 2019 BAPA+40 conference, arguing that while South-South Cooperation (SSC) has traditionally focused on economic and social activities, it must now incorporate peace and security to address the realities of intra-state conflict in Africa. It highlights the alignment between peace and development as seen in the African Union's Agenda 2063, the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (specifically SDG 16), and UN resolutions on sustaining peace.

The briefing examines the role of the Islamic State (IS) as a driver of global conflict, noting that IS-related conflicts constituted approximately one third of all civil conflicts over the past five years. It argues that IS increases conflict complexity and polarization, making peace agreements less likely. Analysis of IS in Syria and Iraq reveals a strategy that prioritizes fighting over economic development and targets Sunni-dominated areas and petroleum-rich border regions. The authors conclude that these patterns make IS a persistent threat in other resource-rich countries with uncontrolled hinterlands, such as Libya, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.

Egypt's 2019 AU chairmanship focuses on economic goals, intra-African trade, and institutional reform, though the author notes a significant gap regarding governance and the need for Egypt to ratify the CFTA.

The report analyzes the shift in irregular migration patterns in North Africa, where countries previously serving as transit zones have become points of departure. It argues that economic decline and structural inequality are driving young Maghrebi citizens to migrate, which in turn complicates diplomatic relations and security partnerships between Maghreb states and European nations.

The document examines the EU's strategy of externalising border control to Libya, noting that while migrant apprehensions fell from approximately 119,000 in 2017 to around 23,000 in 2018, this success is tactical and risks long-term stability. The author contends that by providing equipment and training to hybrid forces and armed groups—such as the Coast Guard unit in Zawiya—the EU reinforces the power of unaccountable actors and criminal networks. This approach creates a 'gatekeeper' role for certain commanders and ignores the primary security concerns of Libyan citizens, such as fuel smuggling and impunity. The brief recommends that counter-migration efforts be integrated into a broader, Libyan-owned security sector reform programme that prioritises the rule of law and clear distinctions between military and civilian security roles.

The document argues that the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) complements the 1969 OAU Refugee Convention by providing modern mechanisms for burden-sharing and regional cooperation. It highlights the challenges facing the Convention, including a rise in forced returns (refoulement) and the pressure of hosting 7.4 million refugees and 17.8 million internally displaced persons in Africa. The brief suggests that the GCR's Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) can reinvigorate African solidarity and promote durable solutions through a 'whole of society' approach involving the private sector and international financial institutions.

The document introduces a collective volume analyzing the shifting security and geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean. It identifies four primary drivers of change: hydrocarbon discoveries, geopolitical antagonisms (particularly involving Turkey), new human security imperatives resulting from Middle Eastern instability, and increased interest from external powers like the US, Russia, and China. The text focuses on the formation of trilateral partnerships (Cyprus-Greece-Israel and Cyprus-Egypt-Greece) as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and explores how these alliances intersect with energy security and the broader refugee crisis affecting Southern Europe.

The document analyzes Greece's strategic shift in the Eastern Mediterranean, emphasizing the role of personal beliefs of policymakers like Nikos Kotzias in shaping a 'diverse active policy'. It details Greece's efforts to establish trilateral partnerships with Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus to counter Turkish influence and leverage hydrocarbon discoveries. Central to this strategy is the ambition to become a regional energy hub through projects like the EastMed pipeline and electrical interconnectors, while positioning Greece as an 'exporter of stability' within a 'triangle of instability' comprising Ukraine, Libya, and Syria.

The document examines the geopolitical motivations driving the partnership between Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus, particularly following the election of Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi in 2014. It analyzes the role of massive natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean and the shared desire to counter Turkish influence. The author distinguishes between a rigid military alliance and a flexible 'entente,' concluding that the trilateral relationship is the latter, as it lacks binding commitments for military intervention during conflict.