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The research finds that while the CDM successfully drove N2O abatement efficiencies to 98-100%, it created significant competitive advantages for registered plants. This led to carbon leakage during 2008 and 2009, where production shifted from plants in industrialized countries or those with existing abatement to CDM plants. The authors estimate that approximately 13.5 MtCO2e of issued CERs for 2008 and 2009 did not represent real emission reductions. To mitigate this, the paper recommends implementing ambitious baseline emission benchmarks in the CDM methodology.

The document introduces the 'Smart Garage' concept—the convergence of electrified vehicles, smart grids, and building energy systems—and provides a framework for a stakeholder charrette to overcome implementation barriers. RMI's financial modeling suggests that while basic convenience charging (V0G) is costly, integrated scenarios like Vehicle-to-Building (V2B) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) can be profitable, with V2B estimated at a net present value of $34B. The briefing identifies critical technical and business barriers, such as battery costs and lack of standardization, and outlines 'hot topics' for debate, including control of charging and the role of government subsidies.

The report analyzes 11 international funding entities to determine the staffing intensity needed to manage climate finance. It finds that official staffing figures often underestimate actual needs due to the exclusion of contract workers and the channelling of funds through other agencies. Based on these findings, the authors estimate that administering US$ 30 billion in annual funds would require between 7,500 and 12,000 staff, while US$ 100 billion would require 25,000 to 40,000 staff. The report argues that to improve cost-effectiveness and country ownership, administrative capacity should be delegated to recipient nations, supported by capacity building via fast start finance.

The policy brief analyzes the staffing intensity of twelve major international development agencies to estimate the personnel needed to manage increased climate finance flows. It finds that agencies typically employ between 25 and 40 full-time equivalent staff per USD 100 million in disbursements. The authors conclude that administering USD 30 billion annually would require 7,500 to 12,000 new administrators, while USD 100 billion would require 25,000 to 40,000. The report argues against the existence of economies of scale for larger agencies and suggests delegating administrative duties to recipient countries to improve cost-effectiveness and local ownership.

The author critiques South Africa's proposed industrial strategy, which relies on state subsidies, selective import barriers, and 'infant industry' protection. Drawing on examples from East Asia, the paper argues that such policies often fail and that sustainable growth in the 21st century requires integrating into global production chains, attracting foreign investment, and improving basic infrastructure and education rather than relying on government intervention to 'pick winners'.

The research evaluates the economic impact of forest area changes from 2000 to 2050, focusing on provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Using a combination of market data, meta-analysis, and value transfer, the study finds that while managed forests may increase provisioning revenues, the loss of natural forests—particularly in tropical and boreal biomes—leads to significant welfare losses, primarily driven by the loss of carbon sequestration capacity. Brazil is projected to suffer the highest economic loss, potentially reaching 6% of its 2050 GDP.

The report argues that while the Mekong subregion is highly vulnerable to climate-related risks, ASEAN-facilitated free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnership agreements (EPAs) largely lack explicit commitments to climate change. It highlights a tension between low-carbon initiatives, such as hydroelectric dams, and the resulting loss of natural capital. The document recommends mainstreaming climate risk assessments into trade mechanisms and fostering cooperation between ASEAN, the Mekong River Commission (MRC), and the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) initiative.

The paper addresses the 'windfall' emissions permits (AAUs) held by countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Former Soviet Union (FSU), which threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto Protocol. It analyzes the conflicting positions of Russia and the EU, noting that Russia views its surplus as a hedge against future emissions growth. To resolve this, the authors propose creating a non-tradable strategic compliance reserve for first-period surpluses and implementing 'optimized trading' for second-period over-allocations. This approach aims to maintain carbon market prices and recognize the 'early action' of transition economies while preventing the market saturation that would occur if all surpluses were traded.

The policy brief argues that the steel sector, responsible for 5% of global CO2 emissions, requires a dedicated international negotiation forum within the UNFCCC to overcome competitiveness fears and leakage. It proposes a 'bottom-up' approach where existing national policies—such as China's energy efficiency targets and India's 'Perform, Achieve and Trade'—serve as building blocks. The author identifies six abatement categories ranging from closing inefficient plants to developing breakthrough technologies, noting that carbon pricing alone is insufficient to realize these opportunities. The brief recommends that the UNFCCC establish a steel-specific forum involving both government and industry to coordinate technology transfers, minimum standards for new plants, and funding for Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS).

The briefing argues that the steel sector, which accounts for 5% of global CO2 emissions, requires a dedicated international framework to prevent emissions growth driven by demand. It recommends a 'bottom-up' approach using existing national policies—such as China's energy efficiency targets and India's 'Perform, Achieve and Trade'—as building blocks. To overcome competitiveness fears and carbon leakage, the author proposes establishing a steel-specific negotiation forum within the UNFCCC. This forum would address six abatement categories, ranging from closing inefficient plants to developing breakthrough technologies, and would integrate technical industry expertise to ensure ambitious national commitments.

The document analyzes the gap between emission pledges and projected emissions for 2020, highlighting that the global economic recession likely reduced the actual effort required to meet these targets. It identifies significant uncertainties in calculating 'allowed emissions' due to varying LULUCF rules and the carry-over of Kyoto Protocol credits. Quantitative comparisons across different data sources (PBL, GAINS, and National Communications) show considerable variance in 2020 projections, suggesting that many official projections may overstate emissions by not fully accounting for the recession's impact.

The paper examines the likely balance of demand and supply for carbon units in 2020, analyzing the 'emissions anyway' projections for major developed nations against their pledges. It concludes that while a theoretical demand gap exists, actual market demand for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) may be low due to policy preferences for sectoral crediting in the US and EU, and a likely oversupply of CERs. The author warns that this suggests a potentially low-value international carbon market, which could hinder global efforts to peak emissions by 2020.

The paper examines historical cases from the Roman Empire, Early Modern Europe, and the Far East to argue that long-term economic growth is possible within renewable energy systems if demand, supply, and trade are managed through sound government policy. It contrasts successful management in Germany and Japan with failures in China, and assesses the technical potential of global renewable resources compared to current energy consumption.

The document analyzes the structural transformation of the Chinese economy, noting that the tertiary industry's share of GDP rose from over 20% in 1978 to around 40% by 2007. While trade in services is growing rapidly—exceeding US$190 billion in 2006—China remains a net importer with a deficit primarily driven by transportation, insurance, and royalties. The authors argue that the service sector's development is inextricably linked to urbanization and the creation of productive cities. They identify challenges including weak international competitiveness in high-end producer services and a reliance on foreign direct investment that targets the domestic market rather than offshoring. The paper recommends relaxing migration restrictions to cities and increasing competition from both domestic and foreign sources to drive innovation and productivity.

The document analyzes the 'Made in China' phenomenon, noting a shift from light industry to technology-intensive sectors like electronics, while highlighting that most firms remain in low-end, low-added-value links. It argues that traditional cost advantages are fading due to rising wages and land costs, and that the dominance of foreign-funded enterprises creates an 'enclave economy' with limited spillover to native firms. The authors recommend a 'clean' upgrading strategy inspired by the German coordinated market economy model, emphasizing long-term employment relationships, incremental innovation, and stringent environmental regulations to ensure sustainable growth.

The report examines carbon leakage—the migration of emissions to regions with laxer carbon pricing—specifically focusing on the EU ETS Phase III. It criticizes the European Commission's broad identification of 164 sectors at risk, arguing that the criteria used were too simplistic and failed to account for the 2008 economic recession or the actual auctioning rates. The authors suggest that leakage risk is actually concentrated in a few sectors, including steel, cement, and aluminium, and recommend tailored policy responses such as border adjustments for cement and investment subsidies for aluminium, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach of free allowance allocation.

The paper examines the complexity of comparing national emissions pledges due to inconsistent base years, varying scopes of greenhouse gases, and divergent accounting methods for LULUCF. It analyzes the specific pledges of Annex I countries (Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, Russia, Kazakhstan) and non-Annex I countries (China, India), highlighting how 'cherry picking' accounting systems can make targets appear more ambitious than they are. The authors recommend a common accounting framework where countries provide scenarios showing how energy-related emissions, LULUCF, and international offsets contribute to their total commitments.

The document investigates how the global economic slowdown affects greenhouse gas emissions, arguing that while recessions reduce emissions in the short term, the long-term impact depends on whether the downturn permanently lowers the GDP trajectory and how it influences energy prices and investment. It finds that many official projections may underestimate the long-term reduction in emissions by treating the recession as a transitory business cycle effect rather than a permanent shift in output. The authors estimate that the global emissions trajectory could be lowered by 1-5% in the long run, or 5-9% if a 'price rebound' effect from lower energy prices is excluded.

The report analyzes how the Canadian agricultural sector can contribute to greenhouse gas reductions and the economic implications of emerging climate policies. It highlights the potential for carbon sequestration in soils and the role of bioenergy, while discussing the complexities of implementing a national cap-and-trade system. Key concerns include the integrity of agricultural offsets, the risk of carbon reversal, and the impact of international trade rules and U.S. policy alignment on Canadian competitiveness.

The paper reviews China's rapid growth in foreign trade since 1978, highlighting its shift from primary commodity exports to manufactured goods. It identifies critical challenges, including a high dependence on external energy and resources, low value-added exports due to a lack of intellectual property rights, and increasing trade frictions with partners like the US and EU. The author proposes a 'sustainable trade strategy' based on three pillars: economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Key recommendations include upgrading manufacturing to increase value-added, expanding the service sector, reducing the export of energy-intensive and polluting products, and fostering the growth of Chinese multinational corporations.