EMISSIONS – PLEDGES AND ‘PROJECTED ANYWAY’ IN 2020

The document analyzes the gap between emission pledges and projected emissions for 2020, highlighting that the global economic recession likely reduced the actual effort required to meet these targets. It identifies significant uncertainties in calculating 'allowed emissions' due to varying LULUCF rules and the carry-over of Kyoto Protocol credits. Quantitative comparisons across different data sources (PBL, GAINS, and National Communications) show considerable variance in 2020 projections, suggesting that many official projections may overstate emissions by not fully accounting for the recession's impact.

• The global economic recession likely lowered the long-term trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions by between 1% and 5%, assuming a permanent 7% reduction in energy prices.
• Projections for 2020 emissions found in countries' 5th National Communications likely overstate emissions because they did not fully incorporate the effects of the global economic recession.
• Calculating 'allowed emissions' for 2020 is complicated by uncertainties regarding Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) rules and the carry-over of surplus 'assigned amount' from the first Kyoto period.
• Quantitative estimates for 2020 reference emissions vary significantly across sources; GAINS estimates are generally the lowest, while PBL results for the US are the highest among projection estimates.
• For non-Annex I Parties like China and India, the recession's impact is partially mitigated because their pledges are based on emission intensity relative to GDP, though it is questioned if these targets encompass all planned domestic measures.

APA

Ward, M. (2010). EMISSIONS – PLEDGES AND ‘PROJECTED ANYWAY’ IN 2020. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-5-emissions-pledges-and-projected-anyway-in-2020-final.pdf

Chicago

Ward, Murray. EMISSIONS – PLEDGES AND ‘PROJECTED ANYWAY’ IN 2020. Climate Strategies, 2010. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-5-emissions-pledges-and-projected-anyway-in-2020-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ward |first1=Murray |title=EMISSIONS – PLEDGES AND ‘PROJECTED ANYWAY’ IN 2020 |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=11 July 2010 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-5-emissions-pledges-and-projected-anyway-in-2020-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ward2010emissions, author = {Ward, Murray}, title = {{EMISSIONS – PLEDGES AND ‘PROJECTED ANYWAY’ IN 2020}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-5-emissions-pledges-and-projected-anyway-in-2020-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }