ISSUES ABOUT MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN 2020

The paper examines the likely balance of demand and supply for carbon units in 2020, analyzing the 'emissions anyway' projections for major developed nations against their pledges. It concludes that while a theoretical demand gap exists, actual market demand for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) may be low due to policy preferences for sectoral crediting in the US and EU, and a likely oversupply of CERs. The author warns that this suggests a potentially low-value international carbon market, which could hinder global efforts to peak emissions by 2020.

• The estimated market demand for carbon units in 2020 varies significantly based on the targets used, ranging from a negative gap of -138.4 MtCO2e to a high gap of 2,575.1 MtCO2e across selected countries.
• The United States is projected to have a substantial demand for carbon units in 2020, estimated between 1,048.4 and 1,679.4 MtCO2e, though US policy signals suggest a preference for sectoral crediting mechanisms over regular CDM credits.
• Russia is identified as a potential source of significant supply, with a projected excess of units that is unlikely to find buyers of a commensurate size.
• The supply of CERs from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is likely to be in substantial over-supply compared to the expected demand for regular CDM credits, even under restrictive scenarios.
• The EU's aggregate demand figures are considered an 'artefact of aggregation' because the 27 member states act independently and there is complex interplay regarding the legal ownership of carry-over units.
• The analysis suggests a 'sobering picture' of a potentially low-value international carbon market and limited domestic abatement, which may obstruct the goal of peaking global emissions by 2020 to stay on the 2°C path.

APA

Ward, M. (2010). ISSUES ABOUT MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN 2020. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-6-issues-about-market-demand-and-supply-final.pdf

Chicago

Ward, Murray. ISSUES ABOUT MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN 2020. Climate Strategies, 2010. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-6-issues-about-market-demand-and-supply-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ward |first1=Murray |title=ISSUES ABOUT MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN 2020 |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=11 July 2010 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-6-issues-about-market-demand-and-supply-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ward2010issues, author = {Ward, Murray}, title = {{ISSUES ABOUT MARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN 2020}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cs-paper-6-issues-about-market-demand-and-supply-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }