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The author contends that the EU's approach to Turkey is overly focused on refugees and civil liberties, ignoring critical security dynamics in Syria. The text details Turkey's shifting relationship with the Assad regime, its conflict with the PKK, and the role of the Turkish 'deep state' in collaborating with various militants. It highlights the strategic importance of 'Operation Euphrates Shield' in closing IS communication lines and urges the EU to collaborate with Turkey on the liberation of Raqqa and the peace process with Kurdish separatists.

The Climate Accountability Scorecard evaluates the climate-related actions and disclosures of several major fossil fuel companies, including BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Arch Coal, CONSOL Energy, and Peabody Energy. The report assigns scores based on criteria such as support for the Paris Agreement, the use of internal carbon pricing, and the transparency of greenhouse gas emissions reporting. Findings indicate a widespread lack of company-wide emissions reduction plans and varying levels of transparency regarding low-carbon research and development investments.

The ATT Monitor 2016 report reviews the first year of the Arms Trade Treaty as international law, noting a rise in membership to 82 States Parties as of June 1, 2016. It highlights a significant gap between procedural progress and substantive compliance, particularly regarding arms transfers to conflict zones like Yemen. The report provides a detailed analysis of African states' engagement, the development of a 'Risk Watch' tool to monitor weapon misuse, and an evaluation of the first tranche of Initial and Annual Transfer Reports, noting inconsistent reporting rates and a lack of transparency in several regions.

The document examines youth radicalisation in Africa as a complex phenomenon driven by a combination of 'push' and 'pull' factors. It argues that while religious ideology is often used as a justification, the actual drivers are frequently rooted in political repression, systemic corruption, socio-economic exclusion, and weakened family structures. The paper emphasizes that responses must be nuanced and evidence-based, moving beyond a 'one size fits all' approach to address specific local and structural vulnerabilities.

The study finds that ethnic civil wars have indeed declined since the mid-1990s, supporting Ted Robert Gurr's projections. The authors demonstrate that this pacifying trend is associated with increased government accommodation, specifically through the granting of group rights, power-sharing, and democratization, which reduce the probability of conflict onset. Additionally, regional autonomy and peacekeeping operations are found to significantly increase the likelihood of conflict termination. Out-of-sample predictions show that a theory-driven model based on accommodative politics far outperforms a simple time-trend model in predicting the actual decline of ethnic conflict from 2000 to 2013.

The report examines 'anti-ISIS foreign fighters', finding they are generally older than Islamist fighters, predominantly male, and frequently U.S. military veterans. It identifies the YPG and Peshmerga as the most popular affiliations and analyzes push factors like frustration with international responses and pull factors such as the desire to protect persecuted minorities. The document also explores the complex and inconsistent legal frameworks across Western nations regarding private citizens participating in foreign conflicts.

The report examines the recruitment of Turkish citizens into ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, identifying a total of 2,000 to 2,200 Turkish nationals who travelled to Iraq and Syria. It distinguishes between the recruitment styles of the two groups, noting that ISIS attracts more recruits through 'pop jihadist' propaganda and lower entry barriers, while Nusra relies on disciplined, historical al-Qaeda networks. Key push factors include personal alienation and socio-economic dislocation, particularly in Kurdish-majority areas and neighbourhoods affected by urban renewal. Pull factors include online Turkish-language propaganda, opposition to the Assad regime, and a specific focus on opposing the PKK. The report also details Ankara's response, including police outreach and Diyanet sermons, while noting the government's framing of the issue as a global problem driven by the Syrian regime and ineffective Western cooperation.

The report analyzes armed conflict trends using Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) statistics, noting a recent upsurge in both the number of conflicts and battle casualties in 2014. While long-term trends since the 1950s show a decline in warfare deaths and a shift from interstate to internal conflicts, 2014 saw 40 conflicts and over 100,000 deaths. The authors attribute the recent rise to nationalism and religious extremism, while predicting that long-term democratization and development will eventually lead to the waning of war.

The document argues that protecting minority rights is a prerequisite for lasting stability and a key element of a security-oriented foreign policy. It examines various power-sharing models—inclusion, portioning, and restrictions—concluding that rights-based restrictions on power are most effective for long-term peace. Case studies on Iraq, Syria, and Myanmar illustrate how the lack of minority protections can exacerbate conflict dynamics and how democratic transitions via majority-rule elections can paradoxically increase the vulnerability of minorities, such as the Rohingya.

The document argues that internally displaced persons in Syria are extraordinarily vulnerable to recruitment by both state and non-state armed actors. It highlights a critical gap in international attention and data regarding IDP mobilization compared to refugee militarization. The authors identify four key factors driving this risk: recruitment processes, the use of humanitarian resources, security vulnerabilities, and socialization through ideological education. Specifically, the Islamic State (IS) is noted for using religious emissaries and controlling school curricula to recruit and indoctrinate displaced populations.

The paper argues that the legal distinction between migrant smuggling (facilitating illegal movement for profit) and human trafficking (exploitation) is increasingly blurred in practice, as smugglers often transition into traffickers. It contends that restrictive border controls do not stop migration but instead make smuggling the 'new normal,' increasing migrant vulnerability and profitability for criminal networks. The authors highlight that most irregular migrants successfully reach their destinations despite high risks, and that state efforts to 'demonize' smugglers often serve as political cover for the failure of the global asylum regime.

The paper argues that ecological, financial, and political systems are under increasing pressure, creating a need to integrate 'hard' security (state-centric) with 'human' security (individual and ecosystem well-being). It identifies commonalities between these fields—such as uncertainty, irreversibilities, and multi-stakeholder complexity—and proposes a three-step methodology: context analysis, participatory scenario building, and options appraisal. Case studies demonstrate how water scarcity in the Nile and Euphrates-Tigris basins, climate-driven geophysical changes in the Arctic, and energy-water dependencies in Central Asia create security risks that require integrated governance and investment strategies.

Friends of the Earth International (FOEI) calls for solidarity with refugees and demands systemic changes to prevent future displacement. The statement identifies the Syrian civil war, resource extraction, and climate change as primary drivers of the refugee crisis and urges governments to end conflicts, phase out fossil fuels, and pursue climate justice to reduce resource scarcity and volatility.

Friends of the Earth International calls for global solidarity with refugees, particularly those fleeing the Syrian conflict, and argues that preventing future displacement requires urgent action on climate justice, the end of resource exploitation, and the reform of unfair trade agreements.

The paper analyzes the Islamic State's (IS) organizational approach to integrating foreign fighters and local recruits in Iraq and Syria. It argues that while foreign fighters provide essential manpower and ideological zeal for IS's territorial ambitions, they introduce risks of adverse selection (incompetence or infiltration). IS mitigates these risks through segregated training, vetting via extreme acts, and deploying foreign fighters in high-risk roles like suicide missions. Conversely, local recruits present a moral hazard of latent opportunism and personal vendettas. The authors conclude that IS effectively manages these diverse groups by aligning them under the overarching goal of establishing a Caliphate, though internal tensions can emerge during military setbacks.

The document critiques the traditional 'rescue paradigm' of humanitarian intervention, where external forces attempt to protect passive victims. Instead, it proposes a model based on 'self-reliance,' identifying four primary civilian survival strategies: avoidance, concession, collective action, and arming. The author suggests that international efforts, including military and aid operations, should be redesigned to support these local initiatives rather than imposing top-down solutions.

The document analyzes international mediation as a tool for peacemaking, noting that while it has become more common since the Cold War—particularly for interstate conflicts—it is underutilized in civil wars. It highlights a geographical bias toward Europe and the Middle East and a trend toward the regionalization of mediation through organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS. While mediation significantly increases the likelihood of short-term settlements, the authors find no evidence of consistent long-term positive effects on durable peace.

The document details the construction of the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, which uses a composite index approach to map global water risks. It describes the development of six modeled indicators (baseline water stress, inter-annual variability, seasonal variability, upstream storage, return flow ratio, and upstream protected land) and the adaptation of six externally sourced indicators (flood occurrence, drought severity, groundwater stress, media coverage, access to water, and threatened amphibians). The methodology involves using an ensemble of regression models to project water withdrawals to 2010, spatial disaggregation to the catchment scale, and a catchment-to-catchment flow accumulation approach for water supply. The final water risk scores are generated through a linear weighted aggregation process, allowing users to customize weights based on their specific sector or risk sensitivity.

The author contends that Germany's historical preference for non-military foreign policy and economic cooperation is no longer viable in a globalised world. Highlighting the paralysis of the UN Security Council and the rise of authoritarianism, the text calls for a more active European foreign policy. It specifically emphasizes the need for the EU to support Ukraine against Russian neo-imperialism and to maintain a value-based partnership with the United States to avoid security vacuums.

The author advocates for the use of federalism as a long-term political framework to manage ethnically divided states, arguing that the international community can and should impose such structures even without the initial volition of local elites. Using Bosnia and Herzegovina as a primary example, the text contrasts federalism with the historical approach of creating ethnically homogeneous nation-states through population transfers. The author suggests that a federal solution, involving power-sharing among moderate elites and international oversight, could be applied to conflicts in Israel/Palestine and Ukraine, provided there is sufficient international political will and a commitment to transitional justice.