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The research design for 'State Futures in the Global South' integrates the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze governance outcomes. The methodology involves benchmarking governance performance across six dimensions and incorporating regional perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia to validate scenario assumptions and identify emerging risks.

The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The report analyzes the role of Global North private equity firms in maintaining fossil fuel assets across the Global South, highlighting a pattern of extracting profits while offloading environmental and social risks onto local communities. Using data from the 2024 Climate Risk Scorecard, it identifies 13 firms with assets in 32 Global South countries, with a significant concentration of risky assets in Latin America, particularly Mexico. The document details specific instances of pollution in India, social displacement in Brazil, and financial instability in the Philippines, while providing a comprehensive case study on Mexico's LNG and pipeline infrastructure. It concludes that the private equity model's lack of transparency and short-term focus exacerbate climate injustice and expose institutional investors, such as public pensions, to significant financial risk.

The document critiques debt-for-nature swaps (EDN), asserting they are a 'green' facade for an unjust financial system. It argues that these mechanisms reinforce financial dependence, facilitate the privatization of common goods, and shift control of territories to foreign NGOs and private actors. The text highlights a 'vicious circle' where debt repayment forces countries toward extractivism and austerity, while modern EDN structures—often involving 'blue' or 'green' bonds—replace old debts with more opaque loans from international entities.

Friends of the Earth International (FoEI) argues that the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) promotes the 'financierization of nature' by treating forests as financial assets. FoEI criticizes the TFFF's structure for prioritizing private investor returns over conservation, creating a potential debt cycle for Global South countries, and maintaining colonial power asymmetries through the involvement of the World Bank and other international financial institutions. While acknowledging the TFFF's commitment to allocate 20% of payments to Indigenous Peoples and local communities (PICL), FoEI deems this insufficient and calls for a systemic shift toward community-led forest management, debt cancellation, and historical reparations.

The document introduces a workbook designed to help businesses and policy-makers navigate the compliance landscape of due diligence laws. It maps 12 specific mandatory regulations—including the EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and the U.S. Lacey Act—against six common themes: risk management, transparency, traceability, accountability, stakeholder engagement, and legality. The analysis is based on the OECD's definition of due diligence, which focuses on identifying and mitigating adverse environmental and social risks in supply chains.

The document identifies a strategic shift from outright climate denial to 'strategic doubt,' where influential economic and political actors—including fossil fuel companies and right-wing populist movements—deliberately spread misleading information to obstruct climate action. It highlights that policymakers are primary targets of these campaigns, which are disseminated through traditional media, social media, and non-public corporate channels. The report notes a significant research gap in the Global South and proposes four policy interventions: mandatory standardized carbon reporting, litigation against greenwashing, the creation of cross-sectoral voluntary alliances, and the enhancement of scientific and media literacy for the public and officials.

The report identifies a shift from outright climate denial to 'strategic skepticism,' where powerful economic and political actors—including fossil fuel companies and right-wing populist movements—undermine climate action by questioning the viability and cost of solutions. It highlights that policymakers are primary targets of this disinformation, which is disseminated through social media, traditional media, and corporate sustainability reports. This erosion of information integrity leads to a loss of public trust in climate science and a feedback loop of political inaction. The document recommends four key interventions: legislation for standardized carbon reporting and content labeling, judicial action against greenwashing, the formation of cross-sector coalitions, and enhanced scientific and media education for the public and policymakers.

The document identifies a shift from outright climate denialism to 'strategic skepticism,' where influential entities—including fossil fuel companies and right-wing populist movements—undermine climate action by questioning the economic efficiency and causes of climate change. It highlights that policymakers are primary targets of this disinformation, which is disseminated through social media, corporate sustainability reports, and interpersonal networks. The report argues that this environment erodes public trust in climate science and creates a cycle of political inaction. To combat this, the authors recommend standardized carbon reporting legislation, legal action against 'greenwashing,' the creation of multi-stakeholder coalitions, and the enhancement of scientific and media literacy for both the public and officials.

The document identifies a shift from absolute climate denial to 'strategic skepticism,' where powerful economic and political actors intentionally spread misleading narratives to obstruct climate action. It highlights that policymakers are primary targets of this disinformation, which erodes public trust in science and creates a feedback loop of political inaction. To counter this, the report recommends standardized carbon reporting legislation, litigation against greenwashing, the formation of multi-stakeholder coalitions, and enhanced scientific and media literacy.

The report identifies a shift from outright climate denialism to 'strategic skepticism,' where powerful economic and political actors sow doubt about the feasibility and cost of climate solutions. It highlights that policymakers are primary targets of this misinformation, which is disseminated through corporate reports, lobbies, and social media, ultimately eroding public trust and delaying climate action. The document recommends four key policy levers: standardized carbon reporting legislation, litigation against greenwashing, the creation of multi-stakeholder coalitions, and enhanced science and media literacy.

The policy brief contends that carbon markets are a flawed mechanism that fails to provide real climate finance, instead allowing Global North polluters to avoid direct emission reductions while potentially harming Global South communities.

The Civil Society FfD Mechanism calls for a fundamental overhaul of the global financial architecture through the establishment of several UN-led conventions and regulatory bodies. Key proposals include a UN Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation to create a fairer tax system, a UN Framework Convention on Sovereign Debt to resolve debt crises, and a UN Convention on International Development Cooperation to shift the narrative from charity to justice and reparations. The submission advocates for the cessation of Investor-State-Dispute-Settlement (ISDS) provisions, the regulation of Credit Rating Agencies via an ECOSOC Commission, and the immediate cancellation of unsustainable and illegitimate debts. Furthermore, it demands a transition away from GDP-centric growth models toward ecological stability, urging Global North countries to provide additional, grants-based climate finance rather than loans.

Friends of the Earth International calls for a legally binding global Plastics Treaty that prioritizes the full lifecycle of plastics, specifically targeting upstream production controls. The organization demands a mechanism to cap and phase down global plastic production, a ban on plastic waste exports from the Global North to the Global South, and the accountability of transnational corporations. The proposed framework rejects 'false solutions' like chemical recycling and plastic offsets, instead advocating for a 'Zero Waste Hierarchy' and a just transition that protects human rights and provides grant-based finance for the Global South.

Friends of the Earth International calls for a legally binding global plastics treaty that moves beyond voluntary measures to implement strict production caps, ban waste exports from the Global North to the Global South, and hold multinational corporations accountable. The organization advocates for a 'zero waste hierarchy' and a just transition that protects human rights and provides grant-based financing for developing nations.

Friends of the Earth International calls for a legally binding global treaty that addresses the full life cycle of plastics, specifically demanding mandatory targets to reduce global production, a ban on plastic waste exports from the Global North to the Global South, and the accountability of transnational corporations. The organization rejects 'false solutions' like chemical recycling and plastic offsets, advocating instead for a 'zero waste hierarchy' focused on reduction, reuse, and redesign. It further demands a just transition for waste workers, the application of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' for financing in the Global South via grants, and strict transparency regarding the chemical composition of plastics.

This briefing by Carbon Market Watch highlights a critical transparency gap in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), where intermediaries—including brokers, exchanges, and resellers—often hide their fees and mark-ups. The report argues that aggregate market value figures are misleading because they do not distinguish between funds reaching project owners and profits captured by financial go-betweens. Based on research by AlliedOffsets, the document reveals that 90% of intermediaries do not disclose exact fees, and some brokers may resell credits for at least three times the purchase price. It concludes with recommendations for buyers, industry standards, and registry managers to mandate the disclosure of pricing and account holdings to ensure climate finance effectively supports mitigation action.

The report identifies 601 International Climate Initiatives (ICIs) launched since 2013, noting that while the number of initiatives grew, productivity and performance have trended downwards since 2019. There is a significant underrepresentation of the Global South in terms of funding, leadership, and participation. Regarding the COP26 'Glasgow initiatives', the report finds they theoretically cover 75% of the 14 GtCO2e ambition gap for 2030, but current signatories would only provide 4 GtCO2e in additional reductions; an additional 7 GtCO2e could be achieved if more governments signed up.

The report argues that while shifting toward plant-based diets and away from industrial meat production is urgently needed for environmental and health reasons, such transitions must be planned inclusively to protect vulnerable stakeholders. It applies the 'just transition' framework—previously established in the energy sector—to the meat sector to ensure costs and benefits are evenly distributed among consumers, farmers, workers, communities, and companies.