Search Climate Insights Directory

The document examines the role of African states in the global nuclear security framework, specifically focusing on the transition from the Nuclear Security Summit process to the IAEA's leadership. It highlights the limited representation of African nations at summits but notes their substantive contributions through treaty ratification and regional cooperation. The brief recommends that African states develop a unified perspective for upcoming international conferences and strengthen domestic legislation to align with global safety and security standards.

The document examines the evolving relationship between France and Senegal, highlighting a shift from exclusive ties to a more diversified partnership under President Abdoulaye Wade. While France remains the primary economic partner and donor, the paper details periods of diplomatic tension, the reduction of French military presence, and a renewed cordiality following the 2012 elections of Macky Sall and François Hollande.

The assessment identifies that the village of Atom is highly vulnerable due to a combination of unpredictable rainfall, forest degradation, and a lack of alternative livelihoods. While traditional shifting cultivation provides some flexibility, the loss of labor due to urban migration and restrictions on hunting in protected areas have weakened local resilience. The document recommends implementing climate-smart agriculture and improving market linkages to enhance food security and adaptive capacity.

The document finds that while trade among BRICS nations has grown, intra-BRICS FDI remains low and lacks strategic policy direction. Most BRICS countries rely on traditional investors from the EU, US, and Japan, though China, India, and Brazil have increased resource-seeking investments in Africa. The briefing recommends collaborative research, comparative studies of investment frameworks, and improved statistics to foster sustainable, development-oriented FDI within the bloc.

The document analyzes the evolution of China's strategies to secure mineral resources in Africa, moving from a primary reliance on 'infrastructure-for-resources' loans to a more diversified approach emphasizing mergers and acquisitions (M&A). While infrastructure-for-resources deals have been effective in locking in long-term supply, they have often failed to secure hard equity assets due to project delays and political instability. In contrast, the 2008-09 global financial crisis enabled Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to use their high liquidity to acquire significant mining and oil assets through M&As, particularly in the mining sector. The author concludes that while the Chinese state remains a critical financier, the strategy has shifted toward more market-oriented, direct acquisitions to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and gain control over commodity prices.

The document describes a planned conference, 'The APRM +10: Reviewing a Decade of Peer Learning and Projecting a Future of Governance in Africa', to be held in Addis Ababa in May 2013. It seeks to evaluate the APRM's progress since its 2003 establishment, specifically focusing on the implementation of National Programmes of Action (NPoAs) and the role of civil society in holding member states accountable. The briefing highlights the tension between the voluntary nature of the APRM and the compulsory nature of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG), while calling for better synergies between the APRM and other AU organs, such as the Pan African Parliament and the Peace and Security Commission.

The document discusses the election of South Africa's Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as head of the African Union (AU) Commission on 15 July 2012. It analyzes the aggressive campaign by South Africa and SADC, the reasons for her success—including election fatigue and the absence of key opponents—and the potential for resistance from AU members who perceive South Africa as having 'bullied' its way into the position. Despite these tensions, the briefing suggests her administrative skills and pan-African knowledge could improve AU functionality and consolidate peace, security, and governance initiatives.

The African Union (AU) has shifted the continental focus from decolonisation to development and economic integration. While it has established institutional infrastructure, implemented peacekeeping missions, and promoted democratic norms—such as refusing to recognise coup-led governments—it faces a structural impasse in achieving developmental goals. The author argues that the AU must move beyond ambitious declarations toward pragmatic outcomes, specifically by translating governance into developmental deliverables, strengthening regional economic communities like ECOWAS, and clarifying leadership principles for the AU Commission.

The analysis finds that South Africa became more confident during its second UN Security Council (UNSC) term, increasing its co-sponsorship of resolutions and strengthening cooperation with other African members, as well as North-South and South-South partners. A central achievement was the adoption of resolution 2033 in January 2012, which focused on strengthening the relationship between the UN and regional organizations like the African Union (AU). The document notes a significant increase in the proportion of UNSC resolutions concerning Africa, rising from 56% during South Africa's first term to 65% in 2011. While South Africa generally aligned its votes with the AU and its African agenda, it faced criticism for its support of Resolution 1973 on Libya and its opposition to sanctions on Zimbabwe. The author concludes that while South Africa has successfully promoted the African agenda, its long-term goal of securing a permanent seat on a reformed UNSC remains uncertain due to regional competition and skepticism regarding Council reform.

The document analyzes the International Bar Association's Model Mining Development Agreement (MMDA 1.0), providing a template and narrative to ensure mining contracts promote sustainable development, transparency, and equitable resource distribution. It details key contractual areas including land tenure, royalties, taxation, and community obligations, while emphasizing the use of international standards like the IFC Performance Standards and EITI. Additionally, the report investigates the existence of similar model agreements for the oil and gas sector, concluding that no internationally accepted model currently exists despite the availability of various national form contracts.

The document outlines three primary factors for South Africa's success on the UN Security Council: restoring relations between the African Union and the Council, adopting a coherent approach to African conflicts, and securing a unified voice with other African members, specifically Morocco. It highlights the tension between South Africa's ambition for a permanent seat and the difficulty of building African consensus, citing divisions over Libya, Syria, and the election of Morocco. The author suggests a pragmatic approach to cooperation with Morocco, potentially using the instability in Sudan as a starting point for alliance-building.

The document argues that the 2011 intervention in Libya, led by NATO and driven by European security concerns, has strained the Africa-Europe relationship. It identifies three primary challenges: the hierarchical European framing of North Africa as a distinct security zone compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, disagreements over the 'responsibility to protect' humanitarian norms, and internal divisions within the African Union's foreign policy architecture, specifically between Francophone and Anglophone interests.

The document analyzes French relations with sub-Saharan Africa under President Nicolas Sarkozy, highlighting a pattern of oscillation between a public discourse of renewal and the practical maintenance of ties with authoritarian leaders. It details reforms in military presence, such as the closure of the Dakar base and the renegotiation of defense agreements, while noting continued interventions in Côte d’Ivoire and Chad. Commercially, France remains dominant in Francophone Africa through the CFA Franc zone and strategic interests in oil and uranium, though it is increasingly competing with new powers like China. The author argues that a lack of transparency continues to fuel conspiracy theories and negative perceptions of French influence across the continent.

The document examines the strategic partnership between China and Gabon, centered on the Bélinga iron ore project. It analyzes how Gabon seeks to diversify its oil-dependent economy through Chinese investment in mining and infrastructure, while China seeks to secure strategic mineral resources. The paper highlights significant delays in the project's execution following the death of President Omar Bongo in 2009, commodity price volatility, and increasing pressure from civil society regarding environmental and labor issues. It concludes that while the project offers potential for regional development and infrastructure, the current 'barter' model of loans-for-resources may limit short-term economic benefits and fail to trigger a major structural change in Gabon's rentier economy.

The Stockholm Environment Institute's Climate Impact Equity Lens (CIEL) tool reveals that while aggregate economic models often suggest modest climate damages, these averages hide a wide disparity in outcomes. By comparing individual climate damages against the savings gained from not reducing emissions, CIEL demonstrates that the most vulnerable people—particularly in poor countries—are already facing net losses. While many currently benefit from the status quo, the tool projects that by 2100, the majority of the global population will suffer net losses, and by 2150, almost everyone across all regions will be net losers, except potentially in China.

One year after the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the author contends that South Africa must translate the success of the event into diplomatic action. By utilizing its positions in SADC, the AU, and the UN Security Council, South Africa is urged to address critical issues such as the Zimbabwe stalemate, crises in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire, and conflicts in Somalia, Darfur, and Abyei, thereby challenging 'Afro-pessimism' through substantive political leadership.

The document examines technical approaches to establishing reference levels for REDD+, comparing historical baselines with forward-looking and adjusted models. It argues that while different methods exist, most produce similar emissions reductions and costs, and that prioritizing the participation of high-forest low-deforestation (HFLD) countries is essential to prevent global leakage.

The document examines the tensions in France's Africa policy, noting a pattern of maintaining ties with authoritarian leaders in countries such as Chad and Gabon despite promises of reform. It highlights the specific diplomatic friction between France and South Africa over the recognition of Alassane Ouattara's presidential victory in Côte d’Ivoire, contrasting France's recognition with South Africa's call for compromise.

India's engagement with Africa has evolved from a post-colonial focus on decolonisation and non-alignment to a pragmatic 'enlightened national interest' approach. This modern strategy is driven by India's need for energy security, specifically crude petroleum, and its ambition for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Trade has grown significantly, with bilateral trade reaching $39 billion in 2008–09, and Indian investment has expanded across hydrocarbons, mining, agriculture, and ICT. India continues to support African capacity building through the ITEC programme and the Pan-African e-network project, aiming to marry its traditional idealistic goals with contemporary economic and strategic needs.

The document assesses how Indonesia's shift from a protected to an open economy has affected its SMEs, which constitute over 90% of all firms. Despite facing significant institutional constraints—such as lack of capital, technology, and skilled labor—the author finds no evidence that trade liberalization has negatively impacted the overall number or GDP contribution of Indonesian SMEs. While most SMEs remain domestically focused or export indirectly through intermediaries, the paper argues that a free-trade regime generally provides more long-term benefits than protectionism, provided that supporting policies for human resource and technological upgrading are implemented.