Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 27

The document discusses the election of South Africa's Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as head of the African Union (AU) Commission on 15 July 2012. It analyzes the aggressive campaign by South Africa and SADC, the reasons for her success—including election fatigue and the absence of key opponents—and the potential for resistance from AU members who perceive South Africa as having 'bullied' its way into the position. Despite these tensions, the briefing suggests her administrative skills and pan-African knowledge could improve AU functionality and consolidate peace, security, and governance initiatives.

• Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was elected head of the African Union (AU) Commission on 15 July 2012, following a period of uncertainty after the 18th AU Summit in January 2012 where neither she nor Dr Jean Ping secured the required two-thirds majority.
• Several factors contributed to Dr Dlamini-Zuma's victory, including a desire among AU members to avoid further uncertainty, the inability of sanctioned countries (Mali, Guinea-Bissau, and Madagascar) to vote, the absence of key supporters of Dr Ping (Presidents Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria and Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia), and a united front from the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
• The election is historically significant because Dr Dlamini-Zuma is the first woman to hold the position since the creation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and represents one of Africa's major powers, breaking a previous ban on 'big countries' standing for the role.
• Dr Dlamini-Zuma faces significant challenges, including internal AU divisions, acrimonious relationships resulting from South Africa's 'aggressive' campaign, and a general 'bureaucratic malaise' within the AU.
• There is a risk that some AU members may deliberately refuse to cooperate with Dr Dlamini-Zuma due to the perception that South Africa 'bullied' its way into the position.

APA

Zounmenou, D., Atta-Asamoah, A., Motsamai, D., Dzinesa, G. A., Joala, R., Kok, N., & Warries, T. (2012). Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 27. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/18July2012.pdf

Chicago

Zounmenou, David, Andrew Atta-Asamoah, Dimpho Motsamai, Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa, Refiloe Joala, Naomi Kok, and Tarryn Warries. Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 27. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/18July2012.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Zounmenou |first1=David |last2=Atta-Asamoah |first2=Andrew |last3=Motsamai |first3=Dimpho |last4=Dzinesa |first4=Gwinyayi A. |last5=Joala |first5=Refiloe |last6=Kok |first6=Naomi |last7=Warries |first7=Tarryn |title=Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 27 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=18 July 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/18July2012.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{zounmenou2012conflict, author = {Zounmenou, David and Atta-Asamoah, Andrew and Motsamai, Dimpho and Dzinesa, Gwinyayi A. and Joala, Refiloe and Kok, Naomi and Warries, Tarryn}, title = {{Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis (CPRA) –Pretoria CPRA Daily Briefings Week 27}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/18July2012.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }