Points of Reference

The document examines technical approaches to establishing reference levels for REDD+, comparing historical baselines with forward-looking and adjusted models. It argues that while different methods exist, most produce similar emissions reductions and costs, and that prioritizing the participation of high-forest low-deforestation (HFLD) countries is essential to prevent global leakage.

• National historical baselines are recommended as a starting point for reference levels because they help ensure that emissions reductions are "additional," meaning they would not have occurred without the REDD+ mechanism.
• Including high-forest low-deforestation (HFLD) countries in REDD+ is critical to prevent leakage, which occurs when carbon-emitting activities shift to different regions, resulting in no net global emissions reduction.
• Comparative research indicates that most reference level approaches—excluding the Terrestrial Carbon Group (TCG) model—result in similar total emissions reductions and similar costs per unit of reduction.
• The 'stock-flow' approach, which provides payments for both current carbon stocks and emissions reductions, is identified as having high overall performance due to its high participation rates and equity relative to opportunity costs.
• Certain 'liberal' approaches, such as the corridor and TCG methods, are criticized for crediting more emissions than were actually reduced, which undermines the criterion of additionality.
• The authors argue that the urgency of climate change outweighs the need for a perfect technical model, suggesting that a "good-enough" system should be implemented quickly rather than delaying action through prolonged negotiations.

APA

May-Tobin, C. (2011). Points of Reference. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Points-of-Reference.pdf

Chicago

May-Tobin, Calen. Points of Reference. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Points-of-Reference.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=May-Tobin |first1=Calen |title=Points of Reference |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=March 2011 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Points-of-Reference.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{maytobin2011points, author = {May-Tobin, Calen}, title = {{Points of Reference}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2011}, month = mar, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/Points-of-Reference.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }