Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper assesses the impact of removing consumer fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 across 26 countries, finding a simple average GHG emission reduction of 6% by 2030 compared to business as usual. The study argues that while FFSR alone is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals, combining it with a 10% energy tax and reallocating 30% of savings into renewable energy and energy efficiency could increase average reductions to 13.2% by 2030. It highlights that FFSR is a cost-effective tool, saving governments an average of USD 93 per tonne of CO2e removed. The paper also reviews the regressive nature of fuel subsidies and advocates for 'subsidy swaps' toward sustainable energy and social safety nets, noting that only 8% of current NDCs explicitly include FFSR.

The report 'Uncalculated Risks' examines how development finance institutions (DFIs) often fail to account for human rights risks, leading to the stigmatization, criminalization, and physical attack of human rights defenders. Through 25 case studies across various countries and sectors, it argues that DFIs frequently rely on inadequate client reporting and overlook the enabling environment for public participation. The document provides a 'Leverage Toolbox' and a 'Reprisal Prevention and Response Process' to help DFIs move toward a human rights-based approach to development.

Egypt is advancing its nuclear energy sector, primarily through the El Dabaa plant project with Russian support, to meet growing electricity demands and reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, this expansion occurs against a backdrop of domestic political consolidation, regional instability in Libya and Sudan, and severe climate risks. The Nile Delta is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, which could threaten coastal nuclear infrastructure and destabilize the economy. The report urges the U.S. to renew its leadership in nuclear nonproliferation and encourages Egypt to integrate comprehensive climate security assessments into its nuclear planning.

The report examines the complex relationship between the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), specifically the application of 'subsidiarity'—the principle that regional structures should lead in their own jurisdictions. It highlights systemic failures in North Africa due to the inactivity of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), tensions between the AU and SADC over elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the AU's successful re-assumption of leadership in the Central African Republic. The document also notes the East African Community's (EAC) internal trade disputes, ECOWAS's struggle to adapt to violent extremism in the Sahel, and the general lack of civil society engagement within the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The IAI Directorate implemented several initiatives between 2018 and 2019 to strengthen science-policy interfaces and regional cooperation. Key activities included signing a Memorandum of Understanding with IPBES, co-hosting a South-South Cooperation workshop on climate and sustainable development in Uruguay, and joining the Belmont Forum Steering Committee. The Directorate also explored becoming a Readiness Delivery Partner for the Green Climate Fund in Latin America and engaged with the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research on a new climate change initiative. Efforts to improve science communication included a social media campaign and discussions with the American Chemical Society and the Earth Journalism Network.

The IAI Executive Directorate reports on its 2018-2019 efforts to strengthen science-policy interfaces and international partnerships. Key activities include signing a Memorandum of Understanding with IPBES, collaborating with UNOSSC on South-South cooperation for urban climate resilience in South American megacities, and pursuing an Associate status with the Green Climate Fund. The IAI also joined the Belmont Forum Steering Committee and explored a cooperative research action on food security and climate change with France's National Research Agency, attracting interest from Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Additionally, the report details engagements with the IPCC, the European Commission, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to foster intercontinental cooperation on climate risks.

The document examines how mega-mergers and the 'financialization' of agriculture have concentrated control of the food chain in a few giant corporations. It highlights the emerging threat of 'big data' platforms, which allow tech and agribusiness giants to monopolize information, further marginalizing small farmers. The report details negative impacts including reduced farmer autonomy, environmental degradation, and labor exploitation, while advocating for agroecology and the protection of peasant rights as a sustainable alternative.

The document examines how mega-mergers and the integration of Big Data are consolidating power within the global agri-food system, marginalizing small farmers and increasing environmental risks.

The report finds that most indicators of global coal power growth declined in 2018, with significant drops in new construction starts and permits in China and India. While global retirements reached near-record levels, led by the US, China remains a major exception by resuming construction on previously shelved plants and proposing a high coal power cap for 2030. The document argues that current operating coal plants already exceed the limits necessary to meet IPCC global warming targets of 1.5°C or 2°C.

The 2019 report by Global Energy Monitor, Sierra Club, and Greenpeace indicates a three-year decline in major growth indicators for coal-fired power generation. While global project pipelines and new licenses in China and India have dropped significantly, China remains a critical factor due to its financing of international projects and potential policy shifts regarding its domestic capacity ceiling. The United States led the world in coal plant retirements in 2018, despite political efforts to maintain aging plants. The report emphasizes that current operational coal capacity exceeds the limits required to meet IPCC climate goals of 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) faces a gap between political enthusiasm and technical implementation. While the African Union aims for a formal launch in July 2019, critical components such as tariff schedules, rules of origin, and protocols for trade in goods and services remain unfinished. UNCTAD suggests full liberalisation could increase intra-African exports by 33%, but failure to deliver concrete benefits for investors and traders could undermine the project's legitimacy.

Egypt's 2019 AU chairmanship focuses on economic goals, intra-African trade, and institutional reform, though the author notes a significant gap regarding governance and the need for Egypt to ratify the CFTA.

The document reports on the growth of sovereign green bond issuance in 2018, noting that sovereign issuance reached 10.5% of the green bond market share. It details specific issuances from countries like France, Indonesia, and the Seychelles, and outlines the development of the Green Bond Market Development Toolkit for emerging markets. Additionally, it describes the EU's progress toward a sustainable finance taxonomy and the efforts of central banks, such as the Bank of England and De Nederlandsche Bank, to integrate climate risk into financial supervision and stress testing.

The study evaluates the resilience of the Eastern African Power Pool's electricity infrastructure against climate-induced water availability variations, finding that planning for a slightly wetter climate than historical trends provides the most resilient strategy. It highlights that failing to climate-proof investments can lead to significant electricity price fluctuations in countries like Uganda and Tanzania, whereas Egypt is less vulnerable.

The report analyzes the legal frameworks of 22 IGF member countries, identifying systemic weaknesses in how ESIAs and related plans (ESMPs, closure plans, and RAPs) are used as decision-making tools. Key issues include ambiguity over the rights of exploration permit holders during the transition to exploitation, inadequate sequencing of document submission, and weak monitoring mechanisms. It argues that ESIAs should be capable of leading to project rejection and recommends the use of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs) to identify sensitive areas before exploration permits are granted. The document also highlights the risk of international arbitration arising from these legal ambiguities.

The report analyzes the legal frameworks of 22 IGF member countries to identify systemic gaps in the implementation of Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs) in mining. Key issues include ambiguity over the rights of exploration permit holders to transition to exploitation, inadequate timing for submitting closure plans and financial guarantees, and a lack of coordination between mining and environmental authorities. The document argues for a shift toward using ESIAs as genuine decision-making tools that can lead to project rejection, the adoption of Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs) to identify sensitive zones, and the strengthening of community participation and independent monitoring to ensure sustainable mine closure.

The document examines the reciprocal relationship between climate and land in Africa, highlighting how desertification and land degradation exacerbate food insecurity and poverty. It identifies specific risks for arid zones, the disproportionate impact on women and marginalized groups, and proposes integrated governance and sustainable land management practices to build resilience.

The document examines how climate change and unsustainable land management drive desertification and food insecurity in Africa, while highlighting sustainable land management practices and the necessity of integrated governance and gender-inclusive policies to build resilience.

The Q4 2019 Risk Dashboard reports that the Green Climate Fund's portfolio concentration and liquidity remain within approved risk tolerance levels. As of December 31, 2019, the fund managed a portfolio of 124 approved funding proposals with a total value of USD 20.63 billion, including GCF's approved funding of USD 5.63 billion. The portfolio is distributed across Africa (39%), Asia-Pacific (34%), Latin America and the Caribbean (23%), and Eastern Europe (4%), with a funding balance of 42% mitigation and 21% adaptation (excluding cross-cutting projects). The fund reports no non-performing loans for the past eight quarters and maintains a foreign exchange commitment risk buffer of USD 86.9 million.

The document examines the transition in Sudan after the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, highlighting the tension between the civilian-led Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the military-led Transitional Military Council (TMC). It argues that while regime change occurred on paper, the 'Islamic security state' remains influential. The author outlines five scenarios ranging from a return to the status quo or civil war to successful systemic reform, emphasizing that economic recovery and security sector transformation are critical for success.