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A case for decreasing plastic production to reduce the European Union’s dependence on fossil fuels and Russia
The report highlights the high energy and feedstock intensity of the EU's plastic production industry, noting its significant reliance on Russian fossil fuels. It argues that reducing plastic production, particularly packaging, is a critical but overlooked lever for enhancing EU energy security and meeting climate goals.
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Document type: Report
GREEN GUARANTEE COMPANY INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS
The Green Guarantee Company (GGC) is designed to unlock private institutional capital for climate projects in emerging and frontier markets by providing full hard-currency guarantees for bonds and loans of USD 50-200 million with maturities of 5-20 years. To address technical barriers, the GGC includes a USD 10 million technical assistance (TA) facility to build issuer capabilities and support certification against the Climate Bond Standard (CBS). The instrument will pilot in South Africa before expanding to other large emitters like Brazil, India, and Indonesia, and eventually to more vulnerable least developed countries. Financial modeling suggests the GGC can catalyze up to USD 10.6 billion in climate debt over 20 years, achieving operating breakeven within 3 to 7 years across various scenarios. Expected impacts include the addition of 7.97 GW of renewable energy capacity and the avoidance of approximately 75 Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent.
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Document type: Report
Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa
The report finds a massive gap between Africa's annual climate finance needs (USD 277 billion) and actual flows (USD 29.5 billion). While international public finance dominates, private sector contribution is low at 14%. Finance is heavily concentrated in a few countries and sectors, with energy receiving the most investment, while agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) remains underfunded. The report recommends scaling up concessional finance, improving data tracking, and catalyzing private investment to meet 2030 goals.
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Document type: Report
Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa
Africa requires USD 277 billion annually to meet its 2030 climate goals, yet only USD 29.5 billion was tracked in 2019/2020. International public finance dominates the landscape, while private sector contributions remain low at 14%. The report highlights significant investment gaps, particularly in Southern Africa, and a critical need to shift funding from fossil fuels toward renewable energy and adaptation, especially in the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector.
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Document type: Report
STUDY ON PRIVATE DEBT MARKETS IN AFRICA
The report assesses the private debt landscape in Africa, noting that while the market is growing, it remains heavily dominated by Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), primarily in hard currency. It highlights a significant gap in local institutional investor participation due to regulatory constraints, risk aversion, and a lack of local currency vehicles. The study provides detailed analysis of focus markets—Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, and Morocco—and uses South Africa as a reference for a more developed financial sector. Key recommendations include the introduction of credit enhancement facilities, improved data transparency, and the creation of local currency investment vehicles to reduce foreign exchange risk for borrowers and attract domestic pension funds.
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Document type: Report
Crude awakening
Global Energy Monitor reports that 24,166 km of oil pipelines are in development worldwide, with an estimated cost of USD 75.4 billion. This expansion, led by the United States, India, China, and Russia, is projected to add approximately 30.1 million barrels per day of transmission capacity, potentially generating 4.61 billion tonnes of CO2 annually. The report argues that this buildout creates significant stranded asset risks and contradicts the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario, which states that no new oil fields are necessary to meet Paris Agreement goals.
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Document type: Briefing
The Green Pivot: Cyprus and the regional energy market
Cyprus currently relies heavily on fossil fuels and suffers from energy isolation and high electricity costs. The report proposes a 'green pivot' involving grid interconnectivity via projects like the EuroAsia Interconnector, the liberalisation of the electricity market through the 'Net Pool' model, and increased investment in solar power and energy storage. By comparing Cyprus to the successful Nordic model, the authors suggest that physical interconnectivity and market transparency could reduce CO2 emissions and lower annual electricity bills for the average consumer by approximately €200.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Nuclear Future: Increasing the Participation of Women and Youth
The policy brief examines the role of nuclear science and technology in Africa's development and the necessity of integrating women and youth into the field. It highlights that while women currently represent only 30% of experts and trainees, frameworks like Agenda 2063 and the Maputo Protocol provide a basis for their inclusion. The document identifies challenges such as a lack of sustainable human resource development and the need for updated expert databases. It recommends enhancing STEM education, increasing government commitment, and leveraging the roles of the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to foster a more inclusive nuclear sector.
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Document type: Policy brief
Is the AfCFTA the ‘Game Changer’ for Africa?
The AfCFTA aims to create a $3.4 billion economic bloc to foster structural transformation through agricultural upgrading, light manufacturing growth, and the deepening of regional value chains (RVCs). While initial tariff offers show potential for significant gains, the document notes that the liberalisation of services has lagged, with a new deadline of December 2023. Implementation is supported by mechanisms like the Afreximbank Adjustment Fund and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, though the authors highlight a critical weakness in accountability: private parties cannot access the AfCFTA's dispute settlement mechanism. The brief concludes that while the project is long-term and potentially 'oversold' to the private sector, it remains a vital instrument for overcoming the limitations of smaller regional economic communities.
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Document type: Policy brief
WACC | On “shrinking space”: A framing paper
The document argues that the concept of "shrinking space" is often used to depoliticize the targeted repression of radical social movements. It identifies ten trends of repression, including philanthropic protectionism and the criminalization of human rights defenders, and contends that these tools are applied selectively by states to maintain power. The author suggests that the focus should shift from a generic "civil society" lens to one of political marginalization and solidarity with those on the margins.
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Document type: Research paper
Ukraine war and the global food system
The briefing examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security, noting that the two nations provide 12% of global calories. It highlights how port blockades and fertiliser export suspensions have driven up prices and hunger, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. The document warns that protectionist export bans by countries like India and Argentina are exacerbating the crisis, and argues that increasing cropland to compensate is problematic due to the associated fossil fuel and fertiliser requirements.
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Document type: Briefing
Africa needs to forge a unified approach to Russia before 2023 Russia-Africa Summit
The document examines Russia's increasing diplomatic and military push into Africa, highlighted by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's July 2022 visits to Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia. It notes that while Russia was the largest arms supplier to Africa in 2021 (44% of imports) and a critical wheat provider, African states remain divided in their response to the invasion of Ukraine, with 48% abstaining from a UN General Assembly resolution. The author contends that Africa's collective GDP of $2.7 trillion in 2021 exceeds Russia's $1.7 trillion, suggesting that a unified approach via the African Union's Partnership Management and Coordination Division and the African Continental Free Trade Area would increase the continent's agency and bargaining power.
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Document type: Research paper
JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION
The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate Finance Innovation for Africa
Africa's climate finance needs are estimated at USD 250 billion annually, yet only USD 29.5 billion was mobilized in 2020. The report identifies critical barriers—financial, governance, project-level, and infrastructure-related—across the energy, transport, buildings, and AFOLU sectors. It argues that bridging this gap requires 'climate finance innovation,' defined as using financial instruments to overcome barriers in novel contexts. The document details a toolbox of solutions, including blended finance, capital market instruments like YieldCos and Green Bonds, and results-based finance, while providing case studies such as TerraFund and Acorn to demonstrate how these tools can catalyze private investment.
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Document type: Report
Climate Finance Innovation for Africa
Africa's annual climate finance needs are estimated at USD 250 billion, yet only USD 29.5 billion was mobilized in 2020. The report identifies critical barriers—financial, governance, project-level, and infrastructure-related—across the energy, transport, buildings, and AFOLU sectors. It argues that bridging this gap requires shifting from traditional grants and concessional debt toward innovative structures like YieldCos, Green Bonds, and blended finance to 'crowd-in' private capital. The document provides a toolbox for matching specific instruments to barriers and highlights four case studies: TerraFund for AFR100, the Sub-National Climate Finance Initiative, Acorn's green housing ecosystem, and the Revego Africa Energy Fund.
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Document type: Report
Why Canadian Liquefied Natural Gas Is Not the Answer for the European Union’s Short-Term Energy Needs
The document examines the feasibility of using Canadian LNG to replace Russian gas in the EU, concluding that the 3-to-5-year timeline for building new Canadian facilities is incompatible with the EU's immediate needs and its medium-term goal of phasing out gas by 2025-2027.
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Document type: Policy brief
Korea and Africa: Partnerships on Climate and Energy
The document explores the evolving relationship between Korea and Africa, focusing on how Korea's carbon-neutrality goals and technological expertise can support Africa's climate resilience. It identifies key areas for partnership, including renewable energy, green minerals for batteries, smart city development, and climate-resilient agriculture, while emphasizing the need for these initiatives to be African-led and aligned with the AU's strategic framework.
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Document type: Research paper
Developments in Africa’s Free Trade Area: Opportunities for Korean Investors
The document analyzes the AfCFTA's potential to industrialize Africa and create a market of 1.3 billion consumers. It highlights a decline in Korea-Africa trade since 2011 and suggests that Korea leverage its strengths in capital goods, specifically the automotive and shipping sectors, to integrate into emerging African regional value chains. The authors recommend that Korea pursue formal economic partnership agreements with African regional economic communities, focusing on asymmetric trade liberalization and supporting Africa's green energy transition.
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Document type: Research paper
Safety and Security of Nuclear Facilities and Materials in Africa
The document examines the governance of nuclear safety and security in Africa, highlighting the roles of the Pelindaba Treaty, the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It notes that while South Africa is currently the only operator of a nuclear power reactor on the continent, Egypt is constructing one and 16 other nations are investigating nuclear programmes. The brief identifies risks including radioactive waste management, the vulnerability of materials during transit, and the potential for human error, citing specific incidents at South Africa's Koeberg and Pelindaba facilities and Namibia's Rössing Uranium Mine. It recommends increased cooperation with the IAEA, ratification of the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM), and prioritising human resource training to prevent accidents.
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Document type: Policy brief
Shifting U.S. Cities
A Climate Central analysis projects that by 2100, the average summer warming across 247 U.S. cities will be 8 °F, with many cities experiencing conditions currently found 437 miles to their south. For 16 cities, future summer temperatures will have no equivalent on the North American continent, instead mirroring conditions in Egypt and the Middle East. Specific projections for major cities include New York warming by 7.6 °F (similar to present-day Columbia, S.C.) and Chicago warming by 9.1 °F (similar to Montgomery, Ala.).
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Document type: Research paper