Search Climate Insights Directory

The November 2024 update reveals a three-year stagnation in global warming projections, with current policies setting the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming by 2100. While renewable energy and electric vehicle deployment have seen record growth, these gains are offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies and increased funding for fossil fuel projects. The report warns that without a substantial increase in the ambition of 2030 and 2035 targets, the 1.5°C limit will likely be breached in the early 2030s, leading to a multidecadal overshoot.

The Madrid Conference, co-chaired by the US and Soviet Union, established a dual-track peace process consisting of bilateral negotiations between Israel and its Arab neighbors and multilateral thematic working groups. While the US successfully secured the participation of key parties—including a joint Jordanian-Palestinian delegation—the process struggled with Israeli and Syrian intransigence. The author contends that the loss of momentum following US Secretary of State James Baker's departure and the subsequent shift toward the direct Israel-Palestine negotiations of the 1993 Oslo Agreement ended the multilateral structure of the Madrid/Washington process.

The report examines how emerging technologies are being integrated into the civil nuclear sector to support the goal of tripling nuclear capacity by 2050. It highlights US-led diplomatic initiatives like the FIRST program, which promotes the export of next-generation reactors to counter Russian and Chinese influence. The text details technical advancements in neutron detection by the Bay Area Neutron Group and the IAEA's use of AI and satellite imagery for safeguards. It further explores the symbiotic relationship between AI and nuclear energy, where advanced reactors provide stable power for AI data centers while AI optimizes reactor design and safety through physics-informed machine learning and digital twins.

The document refutes the claim that Canada can obtain internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement by exporting LNG. It asserts that such exports likely do not reduce global emissions and that foreign buyers would not provide credits for free. The brief further notes that using Article 6.2 for coal-to-LNG switching would be a costly subsidy for domestic gas producers and would violate commitments against subsidizing fossil fuels abroad.

The document asserts that Canada's oil and gas sector emissions, which comprise nearly one-third of the national total, are rising and threaten climate commitments. While supporting the proposed emissions cap, the brief warns that a 25 Mt cushion of 'compliance flexibilities'—specifically the Decarbonization Fund and internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs)—may allow firms to emit more without real reductions. It further cautions that domestic offsets should only be used if they are permanent and additional.

The 2024 BRICS Summit is expected to focus on integrating new members and defining the role of 'partner countries' rather than further expansion. Key economic goals include increasing trade in local currencies to reduce dollar reliance and streamlining payments via the BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative. The document highlights opportunities for coordination between BRICS, the G20, and the G7, particularly with Brazil and South Africa holding leadership roles in 2025. On climate, BRICS is expected to reaffirm support for the Paris Agreement and a just transition that allows for the continued use of fossil fuels for energy security, while potentially introducing a new framework for sustainable development and carbon market projects.

The project examines hydroclimate variability in the American cordillera, specifically in western Canada, Mexico, the Altiplano, and Southern South America. Using tree-ring data, glacier studies, and streamflow records, the research analyzes the relationships between precipitation, runoff, and climatic drivers like ENSO and PDO over the last 300 years. Key outputs include long-term drought and precipitation reconstructions for central Mexico and the Bolivian Altiplano, as well as snowpack and river reconstructions for the Southern Andes.

The 2024 update by the NewClimate Institute finds that aggregated emissions for 25 major emitters could be 10% below 2019 levels by 2030 in a best-case scenario, an improvement over 2023 projections but still far short of the 43% reduction needed for the 1.5°C goal. While no country has strengthened its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) since 2023, half of the assessed countries are likely on track to meet their unconditional targets, suggesting an opportunity to increase ambition.

The paper examines the proliferation of border carbon adjustment (BCA) mechanisms, such as the EU CBAM, and the resulting risks of a 'spaghetti bowl' of incompatible standards. It argues that while comprehensive multilateral agreement on BCAs is hindered by political sensitivities and legitimacy disputes, strategic cooperation should first target technical areas. These include the measurement of greenhouse gas intensity, the determination of downstream coverage, the scope of emissions (Scope 1, 2, and 3), the crediting of foreign carbon prices, and the acceptance of carbon offsets. Such coordination is presented as essential to prevent trade frictions and support the capacity of producers in less developed economies to decarbonize.

The Private Equity Stakeholder Project and United Farm Workers argue that Instar Asset Management has violated the PRI's integrity by ignoring labor abuses at Windmill Farms, including wage theft, gender discrimination, and union-busting, despite Instar's public ESG policies.

The report examines the impact of methane emissions from global coal mining, noting that methane is 82.5 times more powerful than carbon dioxide over 20 years. It highlights a systemic failure in reporting, where governments rely on 'bottom-up' estimates that can underestimate emissions by a factor of 30, while operators possess precise data for safety reasons but are rarely required to share it. Despite the Global Methane Pledge, only the EU and Canada have committed to specific actions for active coal mine methane reduction.

The document reports that as of September 30, 2024, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research had received 38% of its member contributions for the 2024-2025 fiscal year. Total accumulated expenditures for the first three months of the fiscal year were $375,107, which is 10.7% lower than the budgeted amount of $420,000. Reductions in spending were most notable in operating costs (-22.7%) and travel and training (-10.9%).

The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment and partners call for Canada to prohibit CEPA-toxic substances like DEHP, BPA, and PFAS in plastic products before INC-5 to build global momentum for the Global Plastics Treaty. They recommend prioritizing various chemical groupings in the 2025 Priority Plan and finalizing a Plastics Chemicals Strategy by Fall 2025 to restrict precursors such as formaldehyde and vinyl chloride.

The document examines the legal mechanisms of treaty amendments, annex modifications, adjustments, protocols, entry into force, and reservations within multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) to inform the development of the future plastics treaty. It highlights that while treaty text amendments are infrequent and slow, annex amendments are common and more agile. The brief notes that the current 'Compilation Draft' for the plastics treaty proposes a three-fourths majority for amendment ratification and a 50-state threshold for entry into force, while advising the INC to consider 'hard majority' adjustments and the potential for protocols if a framework convention is pursued.

Global climate finance more than doubled between 2018 and 2022, reaching USD 1.46 trillion in 2022, yet remains far below the USD 7.4 trillion annual average needed by 2030 for a 1.5°C scenario. Mitigation finance dominates the landscape, driven by renewable energy and electric vehicles in advanced economies and China, while adaptation finance, though growing, remains severely underfunded, particularly for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The report highlights a critical imbalance, noting that fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 1.4 trillion in 2022, nearly equaling total climate finance. It recommends reforming the global financial architecture through increased concessional finance, risk mitigation, and the redirection of fossil fuel expenditures to close the investment gap.

Since 2023, Chinese firms have committed over US$100 billion in outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) across at least 130 major cleantech transactions, spanning solar, wind, batteries, and new energy vehicles (NEVs). This 'going global' strategy is driven by domestic overcapacity, which has caused solar module prices to drop 60% and battery prices 50% year-on-year, and a need to circumvent trade barriers from the US and EU. The report highlights China's dominance in the global battery supply chain, where it holds over 80% of manufacturing capacity, and its expansion into markets like Morocco, Brazil, and Thailand. For Australia, the report notes that Chinese OFDI reached a multi-decade low of US$613 million in 2023, and argues that Australia should clarify its foreign investment rules to attract Chinese private capital for onshore value-adding in critical minerals and renewable energy infrastructure.

The document examines the proposed regulatory framework to cap GHG emissions in Canada's oil and gas sector. It argues that existing carbon pricing is insufficient to incentivize decarbonization, as profit margins for production remain higher than those for emissions reductions. While the cap is deemed necessary for Canada to meet its Paris Agreement goals, the author warns that a 25-million-tonne 'compliance flexibility' cushion—comprising a Decarbonization Fund, domestic offsets, and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs)—could dilute the cap's impact by up to 25%. The brief specifically cautions against the use of ITMOs for LNG exports, citing risks of double counting, lack of additionality, and potential fossil fuel subsidies.

The document provides detailed standard operating procedures for the chemical analysis of freshwater, focusing on micronutrients and aquatic productivity. It covers the measurement of anions, cations, carbon speciation, nitrogen and phosphorus speciation, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, and soluble reactive silicon. The guide details labware cleaning, calibration of balances and pipettes, sample preparation using 1.2 µm GF/C filters, and the use of the Sample Master® Laboratory Information Management System (LIMS) for data tracking and validation. It also specifies protocols for outsourced analyses conducted at the University of Alberta's Biogeochemical Analytical Service Laboratory.

The report examines how Chile, Indonesia, and South Africa integrate mining sector decarbonization into their climate commitments. It finds that while mining is economically vital and essential for the energy transition, it is often not explicitly identified in NDCs, making cross-country comparison difficult. Chile is highlighted as a benchmark with sector-specific targets, whereas Indonesia and South Africa largely aggregate mining emissions within broader energy or industrial categories.

The document argues that while WTO rules provide significant policy space for LDCs to invest in agriculture through the 'Green Box' and 'Development Box', the primary barrier to increasing agricultural productivity is a lack of fiscal space rather than regulatory constraints. It suggests that new WTO rules should focus on reducing trade-distorting 'Amber Box' subsidies in developed and large developing countries to make LDC agriculture more competitive and attractive to private investors. Additionally, it recommends improving LDC market access by simplifying sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) measures and expanding duty-free market access for key agricultural exports.