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The report argues that civil war is 'development in reverse,' creating a 'conflict trap' where poverty and institutional failure increase the risk of war, and war further degrades development. It identifies three rings of adverse effects: internal civilian suffering, regional spillovers (such as arms races and disease), and global costs (including drug trafficking and terrorism). The authors find that civil war is increasingly concentrated in 'marginalized' low-income countries and those in the conflict trap. To combat this, the report proposes a policy package including improved aid timing, transparent natural resource governance, and coordinated military-development sequencing in postconflict decades.

The document describes the DIADATA dataset, which lists diamond occurrences worldwide, including geographic coordinates, geological forms, and dates of discovery and production. It details the data collection process from academic, governmental, and industry sources, and explains the coding structure for variables such as geological form (primary, secondary, or marine) and production status. Additionally, it describes a 'compact version' of the dataset where sites within 50 km are aggregated into multipoints to reduce missing temporal data. The document includes detailed country profiles for 53 countries, outlining their diamond discovery and production histories.

The authors contend that African urbanization is a demographic megatrend that reshapes politics in diverse, context-specific ways. They reject a uniform 'urban effect,' proposing instead that political changes—such as shifts in citizen preferences, elite incentives, and forms of mobilization—are the direct result of territorially-situated power struggles and the specific social relations produced within built environments. The paper examines six domains: citizen preferences, elite interests, political mobilization, gender roles, civil society, and contentious collective action, highlighting how these are mediated by the unique histories and physical characteristics of different urban places.

The research investigates the relationship between capitalism and domestic peace, arguing that economies favorable to free enterprise reduce the risk of civil war by increasing the opportunity costs of rebellion. Using the Index of Economic Freedom and UCDP/PRIO conflict data from 1970–2005, the authors find that higher economic freedom is associated with a lower risk of conflict onset, a result that remains significant even when controlling for per capita income, institutional quality, and state repression. The study concludes that market-friendly policies do not undermine state autonomy to maintain peace, contrary to some globalization skeptics.

The SADC region exhibits significant economic disparities, with South Africa dominating both regional GDP (55.5%) and intra-regional exports (68.1%). While the region saw an average annual GDP growth of 4.7% from 2003-2013, competitiveness is hindered by poor infrastructure, corruption, and limited access to finance. The services sector is the primary driver of regional growth, though reliance on agriculture remains high in countries like Mozambique, Madagascar, and Malawi. Intra-regional trade has stagnated relative to other African regional economic communities, further hampered by severe transport inefficiencies and customs delays.

The document examines the lack of progress in implementing the SADC univisa, despite the 1998 Protocol on the Development of Tourism. It identifies a conflict between economic goals—where tourism contributes 5.8% to SADC's GDP—and security concerns held by home affairs and security agencies. While a pilot group of countries (including South Africa, Namibia, and Zimbabwe) has worked on harmonisation, political will remains low. The study suggests using the Kavango Zambezi (KAZA) TFCA pilot as a model to overcome bureaucratic resistance.

The document analyzes the inefficiencies of national customs bond systems in Southern Africa, where transporters must purchase separate bonds for every border crossed, increasing costs and delays. It evaluates the regional transit bond (RTB) initiatives of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), noting that both suffer from poor implementation and a lack of stakeholder awareness. By comparing these to the successful Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) system, the study argues that a participatory management structure involving the private sector and financial institutions is essential for the successful deployment of a regional system, particularly in anticipation of the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA).

The Beit Bridge border post, a critical transit link for Southern and Eastern Africa, suffers from severe delays averaging three days, with some extending to two weeks. These delays are driven by inadequate physical infrastructure, such as a single commercial vehicle lane, frequent power outages in Zimbabwe, and non-harmonised IT systems between the South African Revenue Service (SARS) and the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA). The document highlights a systemic culture of bribery and corruption among immigration and police officials, as well as high crime rates that effectively limit operations to daylight hours. Economic consequences include increased transport costs of approximately $400 per truck per day and higher consumer prices for goods like fuel and sugar.

The SADC Non-Tariff Barrier (NTB) Monitoring Mechanism allows private sector actors to report trade barriers via an online database, but the resolution of these barriers is often ineffective. NTBs affect products accounting for $3.3 billion, or 20%, of regional trade, with transport-related barriers being the most persistent. Resolution is hampered by inefficient National Monitoring Committees, a lack of technical expertise, and a political preference for cooperative rather than litigious dispute settlement. The document argues that resolution depends on political will, as some states maintain barriers to protect local industry or revenue. Proposed solutions include strengthening business membership organisations, capacitating national focal points, and creating forums for facilitated dialogue between the private sector and government.

The document examines Namibia's strategy to position the Port of Walvis Bay as a competitive alternative to other SADC ports. It details the role of the Namibian Ports Authority (Namport) and the Walvis Bay Corridor Group (WBCG) in expanding infrastructure and improving trade facilitation. Key developments include a new container terminal funded largely by the African Development Bank and the conceptual SADC Gateway Port. While the port benefits from strategic location and political stability, it faces challenges in human capital and administrative bureaucracy.

This research paper by Amanda Lucey argues for the integration of peace and security into the discourse of South-South Cooperation (SSC), specifically in the context of the BAPA+40 conference. The author contends that while the original 1978 Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA) focused on economic and social development, the contemporary African reality necessitates a holistic approach where peace and development are viewed as mutually reinforcing.

The document examines the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), a voluntary governance assessment tool launched by the African Union in 2002 under the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). It details the five-stage review process—ranging from national self-assessment to peer pressure from heads of state—and analyzes the varying degrees of civil society involvement in early adopters like Ghana, Rwanda, Mauritius, and Kenya. The authors argue that the efficacy of the APRM depends on the transparency of final reports and the willingness of African leadership to implement national action plans.

The document reports on a November 2008 conference regarding regional integration in southern Africa. It argues that while EPAs have contributed to the fragmentation of regional economic bodies, they have also forced a necessary debate on the inefficiency of overlapping memberships in regional economic communities (RECs). The report notes a shift in preference away from linear integration models (like customs unions) toward simpler free trade agreements (FTAs) and infrastructure development. It specifically examines the roles of SADC, COMESA, and the EAC, as well as the Tripartite Alliance and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).

This policy briefing evaluates the feasibility of establishing a regional stabilisation fund for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to counter revenue volatility. The author argues that such a fund is inappropriate due to the differing sources and scales of revenue volatility among member states and a lack of historical precedent for regional stabilisation funds. Instead, the document recommends revising the SACU revenue-sharing formula and implementing country-level fiscal instruments.

The document outlines predictable trends and critical unknowns for the Southern African region, noting a decline in solar energy costs and increasing climate vulnerability, while questioning the pace of EV adoption, infrastructure availability, and the role of South Africa's auto-manufacturing protections.

Ambassador-designate Chen Xiaodong describes a shift in China-Africa relations from government-led assistance to market-driven investment and trade. He highlights China's role as Africa's largest trading partner and a primary financier of infrastructure, while proposing new cooperation in the 'Fourth Industrial Revolution' and digital infrastructure. The speech also addresses COVID-19 support, debt relief for African nations, and a rejection of 'debt trap' narratives.

This policy brief by the South African Institute of International Affairs examines the gap between the African Union's (AU) normative commitments to democracy and human rights and the actual foreign policies of its member states. The author argues that strong sovereignty norms and a state-centric approach have hindered the domestication of human rights, leading to a state of 'stasis' or reversal in several countries. The brief recommends that the AU embrace global partnerships with civil society and that pivotal states like South Africa rejuvenate human rights as a core pillar of their external engagements to ensure continental stability.

This case study examines the Walvis Bay Corridor Group (WBCG), a hybrid public-private partnership established in 2000 to facilitate trade and infrastructure development in Namibia and neighboring SADC countries. The WBCG coordinates a network of roads and rail—including the Trans-Kalahari, Trans-Caprivi, Trans-Cunene, and Trans-Oranje corridors—to connect the Port of Walvis Bay and the Port of Lüderitz to landlocked markets.

The report examines the South African mining industry's decline, highlighted by the Marikana shootings, and argues that structural issues—including regulatory uncertainty, failing social and labour plans, and 'narrow' BEE policies—undermine investor confidence and social stability. It proposes adopting the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights, replacing Social and Labour Plans with Community Development Agreements, and reforming BEE to benefit workers and communities rather than a small elite. The author warns that the ANC's proposed 'strategic nationalisation' of minerals like platinum and coal, as suggested in the SIMS report, could further jeopardise economic growth and exacerbate social conflict.

The paper evaluates how South Africa and Botswana have managed macroeconomic shocks, comparing their fiscal and monetary strategies. It highlights South Africa's diversified economy and inflation-targeting regime against Botswana's diamond-dependent economy and crawling peg exchange rate. The authors analyze the impact of the Global Financial Crisis, commodity price drops, and COVID-19, concluding that both nations face declining fiscal resilience due to structural constraints, debt burdens, and resource volatility.