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Policy Digest #19
The document details regulatory actions, litigation, and legislative updates across several countries focusing on AI, data privacy, and online safety. It also reviews four reports on algorithmic recommender systems, highlighting risks such as the amplification of harmful content and the prioritisation of short-term engagement over long-term user value.
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Document type: Briefing
Submission to the Clean Energy Regulator: Enhancing Method 2 for Coal Mine Emissions Reporting
The document critiques 'Method 2', a site-specific approach to estimating methane emissions at open-cut coal mines in Australia, noting that its compulsory implementation for large mines is undermined by measurement failures and a lack of independent verification. It advocates for the adoption of modern stationary and atmospheric measurement technologies and reforms in data collection and modelling to improve the accuracy of Australia's emissions inventory.
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Document type: Report
Submission to the Clean Energy Regulator: Enhancing Method 2 for Coal Mine Emissions Reporting
The document assesses the impact of Method 2 on coal mining emissions reporting in Australia, highlighting a significant gap between reported fugitive methane and satellite-derived estimates. It argues that the shift from state-based to site-specific emission factors has led to a consistent decrease in reported emissions, particularly in New South Wales, while production has continued to grow. The author recommends mandating regular updates to emission factors, increasing borehole density, expanding gas modelling extent, and implementing independent atmospheric verification using tools like the TROPOMI satellite to ensure the integrity of Australia's national inventory.
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Document type: Report
Estimating CMM emissions
A satellite-based study of six coal mining clusters in Australia indicates that fugitive methane emissions are significantly higher than official reports, with 2020 estimates showing 1.42 million tonnes released compared to the 1.01 million tonnes officially reported.
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Document type: Report
Challenges and next steps
The report advocates for Australia to adopt satellite-based top-down verification for methane emissions to complement existing bottom-up estimates. It highlights the TROPOMI satellite's ability to provide frequent global daily coverage, making it suitable for verifying emissions across clustered coal mining areas despite its lower spatial resolution compared to point-source imagers. The document cites Canada's use of a hybrid reporting framework as a successful precedent and notes that 91% of Australia's annual coal production occurs in regions well-suited for such monitoring. It also identifies a need for spatially distributed methane inventories, noting that the Safeguard Mechanism's shift in April 2024 to report methane quantities rather than CO2-equivalent will facilitate these comparisons.
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Document type: Report
State-level CMM emissions
The report finds that officially reported coal mine methane emissions in Queensland and New South Wales are significantly under-reported. In Queensland, TROPOMI-based satellite estimates for 2020 showed emissions 11% higher than the state's total reported fugitives, despite only modelling four sub-regions. In New South Wales, satellite estimates for 2020 and 2021 identified methane levels nearly double the official reports, despite covering only approximately 61-64% of the state's coal production. Specific site analysis of the Hail Creek mine via satellite and aircraft measurements showed emissions 2.4 to 12.9 times higher than reported values.
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Document type: Report
Emissions accounting variability
Satellite analysis indicates that fugitive methane emissions from Australian open-cut coal mines are increasing, contradicting a decline in company-reported figures. This discrepancy is attributed to the adoption of 'Method 2', a site-specific emissions estimation approach that allows companies to move away from higher state-based averages. In New South Wales, where state-based factors are higher, 75% of open-cut mines use Method 2, contributing to a reported emissions decrease of 65–70% according to Reputex. Ember's reconstruction of emissions using the state-based 'Method 1' shows a closer correlation with satellite data, which found emissions 90% to 107% higher than reported figures for 2020 and 2021 respectively.
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Document type: Report
Satellite analysis identifies 40% more methane from Australian coal mines
A satellite analysis using TROPOMI data reveals that Australia's coal mine methane emissions are significantly under-reported. For the 2020 financial year, satellite estimates for six mining clusters—representing 79% of black coal production—were 40% higher than the national total reported by the National Greenhouse Accounts. The discrepancy is most pronounced in New South Wales, where fugitive emissions were found to be approximately twice as high as official reports in both 2020 and 2021. The report attributes some of this variability to the adoption of 'Method 2', a site-specific company-led estimation approach for open-cut mines that often results in lower reported emissions compared to state-based averages (Method 1).
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Document type: Report
Global Electricity Source Trends
In 2024, global electricity generation reached new record highs for solar, wind, hydro, gas, and coal. Solar was the fastest-growing source, increasing by 474 TWh to reach a 6.9% share of the global mix, with China contributing 53% of this growth. Wind generation also hit a record of 2,494 TWh, though growth slowed due to weather conditions. Hydro rebounded to an all-time high of 4,416 TWh following 2023 droughts, largely driven by China. Nuclear generation grew by 2.5% to 2,768 TWh, but its global market share fell to a 45-year low of 9%. Gas and coal both reached record generation levels in 2024, though their shares of the global electricity mix declined to 22% and 34% respectively, as electricity demand grew faster than their production.
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Document type: Report
The Big Picture
The report highlights solar power as the primary engine of the global energy transition, noting it surpassed 2,000 TWh of generation in 2024 and doubles every three years. While emerging drivers such as data centres, EVs, and heat pumps have structurally increased electricity demand, clean generation is projected to grow fast enough to meet this demand and drive a structural decline in fossil fuels by 2030. Central to this shift is the progress in China and India, where clean power deployment is breaking the historical link between economic growth and fossil fuel expansion, potentially tipping the global balance toward a decline in fossil generation.
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Document type: Report
Promoting the right to a safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment (RtHE)
The document examines the gap between legal frameworks and the actual implementation of environmental procedural rights in Southeast Asia. It identifies challenges such as ambiguous disclosure requirements, lack of enforcement in public participation during Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), and barriers to judicial remedies. The brief highlights community-driven alternatives like counter-EIAs and the role of legal networks in strengthening the judiciary to protect vulnerable groups and environmental defenders.
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Document type: Policy brief
China’s weakening demand for oil and gas
The document reports a decline in Chinese crude oil consumption and LNG imports, alongside significant economic and regulatory volatility in the US oil and gas sector. It highlights corporate shifts at Shell and BP, the risk of USD 2.3 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets, and various international developments in LNG and carbon capture.
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Document type: Newsletter
The State of Green Banks 2025
The report examines the role of green banks in bridging the USD 7.4 trillion annual climate funding gap. It identifies four main structures: standalone de novo banks, enhanced public development banks (PDBs), green facilities within PDBs, and country platforms. While standalone banks are more common in advanced economies, EMDEs frequently utilize green facilities as transitional mechanisms. The report emphasizes that success depends on financial, environmental, and political sustainability, and proposes three international support options: a new design initiative, expanding the FiCS Innovation Lab, or forming a coalition of existing initiatives.
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Document type: Report
FLEXIBLE, CLEAN INDUSTRY AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POWER STRONG ECONOMIES
The document proposes an "energy park" model that co-locates renewable generation with flexible industrial loads and long-duration storage to replace retiring coal capacity. Using Pueblo, Colorado, as a case study, the authors model a system combining 2,000 MW of solar, 1,600 MW of wind, short-duration batteries, and flexible loads (thermal batteries and electrolyzers). The findings indicate that such a park can achieve 99% reliability in mimicking the dispatch of the Comanche Unit 3 plant while providing significant local economic benefits, including over $40 million in annual property taxes and 350 permanent jobs. Financially, the energy park is estimated to be at least 50% cheaper for electricity ratepayers than a comparable small modular nuclear reactor.
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Document type: Case study
繁荣与衰落2025
In 2024, global coal power saw a contradiction: while new completions reached a 20-year low of 44 GW and the EU increased retirements fourfold, China and India saw record-breaking activity. China's new coal starts reached a ten-year high of 94 GW, driven by approval surges in 2022-2023 and supportive policies like capacity electricity tariffs and long-term power purchase agreements. Conversely, OECD nations have significantly reduced planned projects, though their retirement pace remains too slow to meet Paris Agreement goals.
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Document type: Report
Yükseliş ve Çöküş 2025 Küresel Kömürlü Termik Santral Takibi
In 2024, global coal-fired power capacity additions reached their lowest level in 20 years at 44 GW, though net capacity still increased by 18.8 GW due to continued growth in China and India. While the EU saw a fourfold increase in retired capacity and the UK became the sixth country to fully exit coal since the Paris Agreement, China and India saw record-high numbers of new plant starts and proposals. In OECD countries, planned coal plants have dropped from 142 in 2015 to five today, with Turkey and Australia remaining among the few with active projects. Turkey specifically is noted as the only OECD country actively increasing coal-based electricity production, despite a 2053 net-zero target and the recent approval of an expansion at the Afşin-Elbistan complex.
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Document type: Report
Boom and Bust Coal 2025
In 2024, the world commissioned the lowest amount of new coal power capacity in twenty years (44 GW), yet the global fleet still grew by 18.8 GW because additions exceeded retirements (25.2 GW). While the UK became the sixth country to phase out coal entirely and EU27 retirements grew fourfold, China and India dominated new developments, accounting for 92% of all newly proposed coal capacity. China saw its highest construction starts since 2015 (94 GW), and India recorded its highest year for new proposals (38.4 GW). In the OECD, proposals dropped to five, but annual retirements must more than triple to 70 GW to align with 1.5C pathways. Other trends include a surge in captive coal plants in Indonesia, the promotion of ammonia co-firing in Japan and South Korea, and continued coal pursuit in Russia, Mongolia, and Central Asia.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSMENT OF ENI’S CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report finds that Eni's strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over renewable energy investments. Eni's projected 2030 production levels and LNG capacity expansions significantly overshoot NZE requirements, while its diversification into renewables remains marginal, representing only 5.8% of its projected 2030 energy mix.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSMENT OF SHELL’S CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report finds that Shell's investment strategy prioritizes oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over renewable energy, with 2030 production targets and LNG capacities significantly overshooting IEA Net Zero Emissions (NZE) levels. Shell's diversification into sustainable energy remains marginal, and the company has recently reduced its decarbonization targets for product carbon intensity.
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Document type: Report
ASSESSMENT OF TOTALENERGIES’ CLIMATE STRATEGY
The report argues that TotalEnergies' investment and production strategies prioritize oil and gas expansion and shareholder returns over climate solutions, leading to a significant overshoot of the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
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Document type: Report