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The study concludes that greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions contributed to the increased intensity and probability of heavy rainfall during the 2022 tropical storm events in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi. While Tropical Storm Ana was a rare 1-in-50-year event for Mozambique and Malawi, Cyclone Batsirai was a more common 1-in-2-year event for Madagascar. The humanitarian impact was severely amplified by compound factors, including preceding floods, existing droughts in southern Madagascar, and high socio-economic vulnerability. Despite accurate forecasting by regional meteorological centers, infrastructure damage and a lack of trust in warnings hindered effective responses.

The document explains how 'attribution' studies determine if global warming increased the likelihood or intensity of a specific extreme weather event. It warns journalists against three common errors: ignoring climate change, claiming it caused an event without evidence, or treating it as the sole cause. The guide provides specific findings for heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, heavy snowfall, droughts, and wildfires, noting that while heatwaves are globally linked to warming, other phenomena like droughts and floods vary significantly by region.

The document serves as a journalistic guide to 'event attribution', the scientific method used to determine if and to what extent climate change influenced a specific extreme weather event. It warns against common reporting errors—such as ignoring climate change, claiming it as the sole cause without evidence, or over-caution in reporting heatwaves—and provides specific scientific guidance on heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, tropical cyclones, and heavy snowfall.

The document explains the methodology of extreme event attribution, which determines how much human-induced climate change has influenced the probability or intensity of a specific weather event. It provides a detailed breakdown of different types of extreme events—heatwaves, floods, tropical storms, snowfall, droughts, and wildfires—outlining where scientific confidence in climate links is high and where it remains uncertain. The guide emphasizes that while climate change influences the likelihood and severity of events, local vulnerabilities and human management often determine whether an event becomes a disaster.

The document explains the science of 'extreme event attribution,' which calculates how much climate change increases the probability or intensity of specific weather events. It warns journalists against three common errors: ignoring climate links, asserting links without evidence, or citing climate change as the sole cause. The guide provides specific scientific consensus and attribution examples for heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, heavy snow, droughts, and wildfires, emphasizing that while some events (like heatwaves) have a very strong global link to warming, others (like droughts or cyclones) are more complex and vary by region.

The document details the climate vulnerabilities of Belize's coastal communities, the selection of ten target fishing villages, and the operational structure of the Resilient Bold Belize (RBB) initiative. It highlights observed trends such as rising sea and air temperatures, sea-level rise, and increased storm intensity, which are depleting fish stocks and damaging infrastructure. The RBB initiative, supported by a Project Finance for Permanence (PFP) model, focuses on strengthening fisher associations, diversifying livelihoods through nature-based solutions, and improving coordination between government and local stakeholders. It includes detailed terms of reference for project management roles and criteria for selecting sustainable business investments.