Eventi meteorologici estremi e cambiamenti climatici

The document explains the methodology of extreme event attribution, which determines how much human-induced climate change has influenced the probability or intensity of a specific weather event. It provides a detailed breakdown of different types of extreme events—heatwaves, floods, tropical storms, snowfall, droughts, and wildfires—outlining where scientific confidence in climate links is high and where it remains uncertain. The guide emphasizes that while climate change influences the likelihood and severity of events, local vulnerabilities and human management often determine whether an event becomes a disaster.

• Event attribution science uses three primary methods to determine the influence of climate change: simulating current versus pre-industrial climates using multiple models, analyzing historical weather observations to see how probabilities have shifted, and using climate model simulations as historical observations from a specific date (e.g., 1900) to the present.
• Heatwaves are the most straightforward events to attribute; every heatwave globally is now made more intense and more likely due to human-induced climate change. An event that occurred once every 10 years in a pre-industrial climate now occurs 2.8 times every decade and is 1.2 warmer.
• Extreme precipitation has become more common and intense globally due to human-induced climate change, particularly in Europe, most of Asia, central and eastern North America, and parts of South America, Africa, and Australia. This is largely driven by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, where air that is 1
  C warmer holds 7% more moisture.
• While the total annual number of tropical storms has not changed globally, the frequency of the most intense and destructive storms (Categories 3-5) has increased. Climate change has specifically amplified precipitation in storms like Harvey, Katrina, and Irma, and increased storm surge heights due to sea-level rise.
• Extreme cold events have become less probable and less intense worldwide due to climate change. The impact on heavy snowfall is more uncertain, though intensity may have increased in parts of North America, Greenland, and eastern/northern Asia since the 1950s.
• Droughts are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change only in specific regions: Europe, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Central and Eastern Asia, Southern/Western Australia, and Western North America. This is caused by increased evaporation and a shift toward more intense but sporadic rainfall.
• The probability of 'fire weather' (conditions of temperature, drought, and wind) is increasing on every continent. This is clearly attributable to climate change in Southern Europe, Northern Eurasia, the United States, and Australia, with emerging signals in Southern China.
• A weather event becomes a disaster based on societal vulnerability, exposure, and human management (such as land use, water management, and fire prevention) rather than the meteorological event alone.

APA

Clarke, B., & Otto, F. (n.d.). Eventi meteorologici estremi e cambiamenti climatici. World Weather Attribution. http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA_GuideIT_2412.pdf

Chicago

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. Eventi meteorologici estremi e cambiamenti climatici. World Weather Attribution, n.d. http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA_GuideIT_2412.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Clarke |first1=Ben |last2=Otto |first2=Friederike |title=Eventi meteorologici estremi e cambiamenti climatici |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA_GuideIT_2412.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{clarkendeventi, author = {Clarke, Ben and Otto, Friederike}, title = {{Eventi meteorologici estremi e cambiamenti climatici}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {http://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA_GuideIT_2412.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }