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In a speech at COP28, Colombian President Gustavo Petro calls for a global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to end the exploitation of oil, coal, and gas. He argues that current fossil fuel deposits are sufficient to lead the planet to a 3°C temperature increase and subsequent collapse. Petro frames the climate crisis as a struggle between 'fossil capital' and human life, highlighting the imminent threat of 'ethnocide' for island nations like Tuvalu and the necessity of a rational transition for oil-dependent economies, including Colombia.

The briefing analyzes the communique from the 52nd Pacific Island Forum Leaders’ Meeting, noting the historic mention of a "Fossil Fuel Free Pacific" while criticizing qualifiers that weaken the commitment. It highlights the use of terms like "aspire" and "in our energy systems" as loopholes that allow countries, particularly Australia and New Zealand, to avoid committing to a phase-out of fossil fuel production. The document also criticizes Australia for using climate resilience funding and resettlement offers for Tuvalu to mask its continued support for fossil fuel companies and its pursuit of carbon dioxide dumping legislation.

The 2023 Production Gap Report reveals that governments plan to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Specifically, projections indicate 460% more coal, 29% more oil, and 82% more gas in 2030 compared to the 1.5°C pathway. The report notes that while major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, none have committed to production reductions aligned with the 1.5°C goal. To mitigate risks, the report recommends a near total phase-out of coal by 2040 and a three-quarters reduction in oil and gas production by 2050 from 2020 levels.

The report forecasts a significant increase in Africa's energy demand due to population growth, projecting that it will overtake the EU27 by 2043. While Africa possesses vast oil, gas, and hydropower reserves, its current energy mix remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 'other renewables' making up only 1.6% of production in 2023. The document highlights a trajectory where Africa will eventually become a major global source of carbon emissions from fossil fuels, overtaking the EU by 2034.

The report analyzes global and African energy trends, forecasting a significant increase in energy demand driven by population growth. It details the slow decline of fossil fuels and predicts specific transition points where renewables and gas will overtake other energy sources in both global and African contexts.

The briefing contends that fossil fuel extraction in Africa has failed to provide universal electricity access, with 600 million people still lacking power, while most production is exported. It highlights that Africa possesses 39% of the world's renewable energy potential but receives only 2% of global renewable investments. The document proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: non-proliferation of new infrastructure, a just phase-out of existing production, and financial/technical support for a global transition to renewables.

The document contends that qualifiers such as "unabated" and "inefficient" in climate policies allow the fossil fuel industry to maintain production and profits despite the 1.5C goal. It asserts that there is no globally agreed definition for "unabated" fossil fuels and that carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains unproven at scale. Similarly, the term "inefficient" regarding subsidies is viewed as vague, contributing to a surge in fossil fuel subsidies to over 7 trillion USD in 2022. The briefing calls for unambiguous language focusing on the absolute decline of both production and emissions to align with the Paris Agreement.

Reclaim Finance recommends that French life insurers implement a Climate/Energy policy across all asset classes to end support for fossil fuel expansion. The guide details specific implementation paths for 'fonds euro' (general funds) and 'unités de compte' (unit-linked accounts), proposing a phased timeline from 2024 to 2026 to pressure asset management companies (SdG) into compliance through divestment threats and strict selection criteria.

The document argues that because a significant portion of the EU's methane footprint originates from imported energy, the European Commission should leverage new energy contracts to mandate methane mitigation. It suggests that EU-based companies in joint ventures abroad should be encouraged to adopt best practices for reducing emissions from production operations outside EU borders.

The document describes governance in the DR Congo as being dominated by rent-seeking elites and systemic corruption, particularly within the extractive industries. It highlights the failure of decentralisation efforts, where the central government in Kinshasa maintains control by withholding funds from provinces. Despite recent commitments from the presidency to combat corruption through the creation of the Agence de prévention et de lutte contre la corruption (APLC), the report notes that the country remains an 'anocracy' with a significant gap between nominal electoral practices and substantive liberal democracy.

The briefing advocates for a global Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: ending new exploration and production, phasing out existing production equitably, and enabling a just global transition. It outlines the necessity of international coordination to address the supply side of climate change, noting that current global production plans exceed 1.5°C limits. The document provides a roadmap for governments to support the treaty through public endorsements, diplomatic engagement, and domestic policy measures such as removing subsidies and restricting new infrastructure.

The briefing advocates for an international treaty to end the proliferation of coal, oil, and gas, phase out existing production equitably, and enable a global just transition. It outlines the necessary 'ingredients' for such a treaty, proposes specific diplomatic and domestic actions for governments, and provides suggested language for multilateral statements.

The briefing advocates for an international treaty to end fossil fuel proliferation through three pillars: prohibiting new exploration and production, phasing out existing production equitably, and facilitating a just transition for dependent countries and communities. It outlines the necessary ingredients for such a treaty—including civil society movements and 'champion' countries like Vanuatu and Tuvalu—and provides a roadmap of diplomatic and national policy actions for governments to reduce fossil fuel dependency.

The briefing advocates for an international treaty to end the proliferation of fossil fuels through three pillars: prohibiting new exploration and production, phasing out existing production equitably, and facilitating a just transition for dependent countries and workers. It outlines a diplomatic strategy for 'champion countries' to drive this process, suggests specific national policy actions to reduce supply-side dependence, and provides model text for governments to use in multilateral negotiations.

The briefing proposes a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty based on three pillars: preventing new exploration licenses, phasing out existing production equitably, and ensuring a just transition for workers and dependent communities. It outlines a strategy for 'precursor countries' to drive international cooperation, suggests specific diplomatic actions for national governments, and provides a menu of domestic policy options to reduce fossil fuel dependency.

The briefing asserts that current global production plans for fossil fuels will lead to emissions more than double what is compatible with the 1.5 °C target. It argues that while the Paris Agreement focuses on emissions, a new international legal instrument is needed to specifically target the supply side by ending new exploration and managing the equitable decline of existing production. The proposed treaty framework emphasizes a 'just transition' where wealthy nations transition fastest and provide financial and technological support to poorer, dependent nations. The document suggests a path toward this treaty through new country coalitions, such as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), increased transparency via the Global Fossil Fuel Registry, and the potential creation of a Global Commission on Fossil Fuels.

The briefing advocates for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to address the climate crisis by targeting the supply side of fossil fuels. It argues that existing frameworks like the Paris Agreement are insufficient because they focus on emissions rather than production. The proposed treaty would focus on three pillars: non-proliferation of new fuels, an equitable phase-out of existing production, and a global just transition. The document outlines necessary international cooperation, including new coalitions like the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) and tools like the Global Fossil Fuel Register, while drawing parallels to successful treaties on nuclear weapons and landmines.

A response from the Petroleum Agency SA (PASA) to the Centre for Environmental Rights regarding the regulation of upstream gas and petroleum activities, addressing public access to rights, environmental inspectors, and the status of hydraulic fracturing.

The appendix describes the technical process for estimating the 'government plans and projections' (GPP) pathway using data from 19 major producer countries and deriving climate-consistent pathways from IPCC AR6 mitigation scenarios. It outlines the conversion of physical production data into energy and extraction-based GHG emission units and explains the scenario-filtering process used to exclude pathways with unrealistic reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Additionally, it compares the 2023 findings with the 2021 assessment, noting a widening production gap for coal by 2030.

The 2023 Production Gap Report finds that governments plan to produce significantly more fossil fuels by 2030 and 2050 than is compatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement. Despite net-zero commitments, major producers continue to plan expansions, with coal production projected to increase until 2030 and oil and gas until at least 2050. The report emphasizes that relying on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is risky due to technical failures and scale issues, urging a phase-out of coal by 2040 and a reduction of oil and gas to 25% of 2020 levels by 2050.