Online Appendix to the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises

The appendix describes the technical process for estimating the 'government plans and projections' (GPP) pathway using data from 19 major producer countries and deriving climate-consistent pathways from IPCC AR6 mitigation scenarios. It outlines the conversion of physical production data into energy and extraction-based GHG emission units and explains the scenario-filtering process used to exclude pathways with unrealistic reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Additionally, it compares the 2023 findings with the 2021 assessment, noting a widening production gap for coal by 2030.

• The 2023 analysis of the government plans and projections (GPP) pathway is based on data from 19 major producer countries, which together represented approximately 80% of global fossil fuel production on a primary energy basis in 2021.
• To derive 1.5°C- and 2°C-consistent pathways, the report filtered IPCC AR6 scenarios to exclude those with excessive reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), specifically capping BECCS at 5 GtCO2/yr and afforestation/reforestation at 3.6 GtCO2/yr by mid-century.
• The production gap for coal has widened by 2030 compared to the 2021 assessment, driven partly by increased government projections in China, India, and Indonesia, and partly by a faster coal phase-out required in AR6 mitigation scenarios.
• The production gap for oil is narrower in both 2030 and 2040 in the 2023 assessment compared to 2021, primarily because the median 1.5°C-consistent pathway now allows for a slightly slower decline in oil production.
• The report uses specific top-down emission factors to convert energy units to extraction-based GHG emissions: 0.098 GtCO2eq per EJ for coal, 0.069 for oil, and 0.058 for gas.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2023). Online Appendix to the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-appendix.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. Online Appendix to the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises. 2023. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-appendix.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=Online Appendix to the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises |date=2023 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-appendix.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2023online, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{Online Appendix to the 2023 Production Gap Report: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2023}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/pgr2023-appendix.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }