The Production Gap

The 2023 Production Gap Report reveals that governments plan to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with the 1.5°C temperature limit. Specifically, projections indicate 460% more coal, 29% more oil, and 82% more gas in 2030 compared to the 1.5°C pathway. The report notes that while major producers have pledged net-zero emissions, none have committed to production reductions aligned with the 1.5°C goal. To mitigate risks, the report recommends a near total phase-out of coal by 2040 and a three-quarters reduction in oil and gas production by 2050 from 2020 levels.

• Governments' planned fossil fuel production for 2030 exceeds the levels consistent with a 1.5°C temperature limit by approximately 110%, meaning they plan to produce more than double the allowed amount.
• The production gap varies significantly by fuel type, with coal showing the highest misalignment: projections for 2030 show 460% more coal, 82% more gas, and 29% more oil than the 1.5°C limit allows.
• Current government plans project an increase in global coal production until 2030 and continued increases in oil and gas production until at least 2050, contradicting Paris Agreement commitments and expectations that demand for these fuels will peak within the current decade.
• Despite pledging net-zero emissions and launching emission-reduction initiatives for production, no major producer countries have committed to reducing the actual production of coal, oil, and gas in line with the 1.5°C limit.
• To address the gap and account for the uncertainties of carbon capture and removal technologies, the report suggests a near total phase-out of coal by 2040 and a minimum three-quarters reduction in oil and gas production by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.

APA

Analytics,E3G,IISD,UNEP,, S. (2023). The Production Gap. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-2023

Chicago

Analytics,E3G,IISD,UNEP,, SEI,Climate. The Production Gap. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2023. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-2023.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Analytics,E3G,IISD,UNEP, |first1=SEI,Climate |title=The Production Gap |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=9 November 2023 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-2023 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{analyticse3giisdunep2023production, author = {Analytics,E3G,IISD,UNEP,, SEI,Climate}, title = {{The Production Gap}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-2023}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }