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The report analyzes energy pricing reforms in the MENA region, specifically within the GCC, following the 2014 oil price collapse. It argues that while price increases are a regional trend, they are not yet a norm and risk political instability if not accompanied by social safety nets and labor market reforms. The document details specific reform measures in countries like Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Morocco, and provides technical recommendations for international assistance to support a transition toward productive economies.

In July 2014, Egypt implemented significant energy subsidy cuts, including a 64% increase in diesel prices, as part of a five-year plan to eliminate most energy subsidies. The reforms aimed to reduce the budget deficit and signal economic stability to investors. While the cuts caused an initial spike in inflation and public discontent among lower-income groups and transport operators, the broader economic outlook improved, and large-scale protests were avoided. The report notes that the government's compensation measures were limited and ad hoc, and that the success of future reforms will depend on more robust social safety nets and the management of politically sensitive products like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

The Indonesian government implemented significant energy subsidy reforms starting in November 2014, transitioning from fixed prices to a more market-responsive pricing mechanism. While initial price hikes in November 2014 led to inflation and public protests, a sharp decline in global oil prices allowed the government to lower fuel prices in January 2015 while simultaneously removing subsidies on Premium gasoline in the Java-Madura-Bali region. The government aims to reallocate an estimated IDR 194.2 trillion in savings toward productive sectors, including infrastructure and state-owned enterprises. Additional reforms targeted LPG and electricity tariffs, supported by social assistance programs like the Indonesia Smart Card to mitigate impacts on vulnerable populations.

The report examines Sudan's fuel subsidy reform process, highlighting the September 2013 price hikes for petrol, diesel, and LPG. It analyzes the economic drivers, such as the loss of oil revenue following South Sudan's secession, and the subsequent social unrest and inflationary pressures. The document concludes with lessons learned regarding pricing systems, mitigation strategies, and the necessity of public support.

The document assesses Iran's transition from heavy fossil fuel subsidies to a system of higher energy prices compensated by nationwide cash transfers. It details the 'shock therapy' approach to price increases for petrol, diesel, natural gas, and electricity, and the subsequent fiscal challenges in managing cash payouts. The brief highlights a reduction in most energy consumption but an increase in natural gas use, while noting significant inflationary pressures exacerbated by international sanctions. It concludes with recommendations to target cash transfers more precisely and shift toward in-kind mitigation measures.

The author contends that while increasing Eskom's electricity tariffs may cause short-term inflation, failing to do so will lead to chronic power shortages and rolling black-outs that will be more inflationary and disproportionately harm the poor. The text suggests that the current crisis stems from unsustainably low electricity prices and a failure to invest in infrastructure. To mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations, the author proposes targeted protections such as price discrimination and free basic energy, while urging the government to invest in job-intensive renewable energy sources, potentially funded by international carbon credits.

The author contends that Zimbabwe's entry into the Common Monetary Area (CMA) would undermine the agreement's credibility due to Zimbabwe's inability to back currency issuance with foreign reserves. Furthermore, the move would strip Zimbabwe of its monetary and fiscal sovereignty, lead to an overvalued currency that destroys export competitiveness, and fail to curb inflation without the removal of trade barriers. Politically, such a surrender of sovereignty is viewed as unpalatable for Zimbabwe's leadership.

The report describes a Zimbabwean economy in crisis, driven by the breakdown of the rule of law and a chaotic land resettlement program that undermined the agricultural sector. It details severe macroeconomic instability, including hyperinflation, currency collapse, and a reliance on parallel markets. The document argues that recovery is impossible without fundamental political change, the restoration of property rights, and a return to democratic governance.

The report details Ghana's economic crisis in 2022, characterized by credit rating downgrades from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, and a sharp depreciation of the cedi. It identifies the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2017 banking sector clean-up, and the Russia-Ukraine war as primary drivers, with the latter specifically impacting fertilizer costs and agriculture. Inflation rose to 31.7% by July 2022, driven by imported inflation and rising food prices. The government responded with policy rate hikes by the Bank of Ghana, increasing the rate from 14.5% in January to 22% by August 2022, and attempted to curb forex irregularities. However, the report notes skepticism regarding these measures, emphasizing the need for expenditure cuts and anti-corruption efforts to restore stability.

While the MENA region has low direct exposure to US tariffs, it faces significant indirect risks including energy price volatility, trade diversion (specifically 'dumping' of Chinese steel and aluminium), and inflationary pressures. Certain countries are more exposed than others, with Jordan facing risks to its garment exports, while Türkiye may gain competitiveness in textiles. The region's long-standing policy of non-alignment between the US and China is under pressure as trade is increasingly weaponized, though the Gulf's strategic geography and investments in digital infrastructure offer paths toward resilience.

The paper examines how Zambia manages competing public needs through macroeconomic reforms and growth stimulation. It details the transition from state-led economic management to a liberalised system, focusing on GDP growth, inflation control, and interest rate reductions to expand the state's resource envelope.

The document analyzes Senegal's macroeconomic trajectory from the 1970s through the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights how the pandemic caused a significant drop in GDP growth in 2020, severely impacting sectors such as tourism, transport, and agriculture. To counter this, the Senegalese government and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) deployed a combination of stimulus packages, tax rebates, and liquidity measures. These interventions are credited with achieving a 1.3% real GDP growth in 2020, outperforming initial IMF forecasts of -0.4%. The paper also discusses the role of foreign direct investment, the potential of future oil and gas production, and the long-term goals of the Emerging Senegal Plan.

The document analyzes Benin's macroeconomic response to COVID-19, noting that while stringent health measures and high citizen compliance kept infection rates low, the economy suffered a GDP growth decline from 6.5% in 2019 to 4.8% in 2020. The government and BCEAO deployed expansionary monetary policies to increase liquidity and fiscal measures including cash transfers and subsidies. While these actions supported the agricultural sector and prevented food price inflation, the overall expansion of the money supply contributed to higher consumer prices, potentially increasing poverty risks for vulnerable households.

The document analyzes Nigeria's economic contraction and subsequent recovery during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the role of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and fiscal stimulus. It identifies critical gaps in social protection, gender-responsive policy, and fiscal buffers, while advocating for central bank independence and digital economy integration for long-term stability.

The briefing compares the macroeconomic resilience of Benin and Togo from 2000 to 2020, finding that Benin's economy is more volatile due to greater global integration, while Togo's performance has been shielded by phosphate exports. It examines the impact of national crises—such as political instability in Togo and trade disputes in Benin—and regional shocks like COVID-19 and Ebola, evaluating the fiscal and monetary policy responses of both nations.