La région MENA à la croisée des chemins : exposition croissante aux turbulences commerciales, aux droits de douane et aux tensions stratégiques

While the MENA region has low direct exposure to US tariffs, it faces significant indirect risks including energy price volatility, trade diversion (specifically 'dumping' of Chinese steel and aluminium), and inflationary pressures. Certain countries are more exposed than others, with Jordan facing risks to its garment exports, while Türkiye may gain competitiveness in textiles. The region's long-standing policy of non-alignment between the US and China is under pressure as trade is increasingly weaponized, though the Gulf's strategic geography and investments in digital infrastructure offer paths toward resilience.

• The MENA region has low direct exposure to US tariffs because the US is not a major trading partner for most of the region, with exports to the US averaging only about 5%, much of which consists of oil and gas that are typically exempt from tariffs.
• Indirect risks are significant, particularly for oil markets where prolonged trade disputes between major economies could lower global growth and energy prices, creating budget constraints for Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman.
• There is a risk of trade diversion where Chinese producers with excess capacity may 'dump' cheap steel and aluminium into Gulf markets, repeating a pattern seen in 2017 that pressured local producers.
• Country-specific impacts vary: Jordan is highly vulnerable as over 25% of its exports (mainly clothing) go to the US, whereas Türkiye may see increased competitiveness in textiles and machinery due to higher tariffs on European and Chinese competitors.
• The region's strategic non-alignment between the US and China is becoming harder to maintain as trade is increasingly used as a geopolitical weapon and security concerns influence economic policy.

APA

Aziz, Y. (n.d.). La région MENA à la croisée des chemins : exposition croissante aux turbulences commerciales, aux droits de douane et aux tensions stratégiques. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/middle-east-north-africa-crossroads

Chicago

Aziz, Yara. La région MENA à la croisée des chemins : exposition croissante aux turbulences commerciales, aux droits de douane et aux tensions stratégiques. International Institute for Sustainable Development, n.d. https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/middle-east-north-africa-crossroads.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aziz |first1=Yara |title=La région MENA à la croisée des chemins : exposition croissante aux turbulences commerciales, aux droits de douane et aux tensions stratégiques |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |url=https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/middle-east-north-africa-crossroads |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{azizndrgion, author = {Aziz, Yara}, title = {{La région MENA à la croisée des chemins : exposition croissante aux turbulences commerciales, aux droits de douane et aux tensions stratégiques}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/fr/articles/policy-analysis/middle-east-north-africa-crossroads}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }