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The report argues that Africa is currently deindustrialising, with structural transformation shifting from low-productivity agriculture to low-productivity urban retail services. It posits that manufacturing is unique in its ability to induce rapid economic growth and productivity gains. The author suggests that the fourth industrial revolution—characterised by robotics, AI, and 3D printing—could allow Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure deficits and establish regional value chains, provided governments implement determined industrial policies and invest in human capital and ICT.

FSD Tanzania (FSDT) provided approximately USD 1.36 million in grants to the Capital Markets and Securities Authority (CMSA) and the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) to establish the Enterprise Growth Market (EGM). The EGM aims to provide long-term equity capital for growth-oriented SMEs in sectors such as agribusiness, mining, and manufacturing. Since its launch, five companies have listed, raising approximately TZS 46 billion from 242,518 investors. While the initiative has successfully increased the number of investors and improved the capacity of regulators, challenges remain regarding low liquidity, limited managerial skills among MSMEs, and the sustainability of funding for awareness and capacity-building activities.

The document argues that Southern Africa remains largely excluded from global value chains due to poor infrastructure, weak manufacturing, and a lack of regional integration. It suggests that while governments should focus on enabling sectors like energy and transport, the region needs better data collection—noting that only South Africa participates in the OECD's TiVA database—and a strategic rebranding effort similar to Costa Rica's approach to attract lead firms. The text highlights agro-processing and services as key areas for competitive advantage and growth.

The paper investigates Chinese manufacturing investment in Nigeria, finding limited but significant technology transfer, particularly in automobile assembly and light manufacturing. While Chinese firms provide employment and affordable machinery, the study notes a lack of sectoral clustering in special economic zones and weak backward linkages to the local economy. It highlights the role of Nigerian import substitution policies in attracting investment but warns of reputational risks due to unethical business practices by some Chinese firms.

The report evaluates the PSDP's interventions with SMMEs in Botswana, categorising them into those hindered by the enabling environment, nascent manufacturers, and those lacking specific skills training. While individual interventions showed positive results, the report highlights a failure in policy implementation regarding micro-financing and suggests that targeted donor support for audited SMMEs can unlock regional value chains in markets like Namibia and Zambia.

The paper examines Ethiopia's position regarding the COMESA FTA, concluding that while trade liberalisation could increase general welfare through cheaper imports, it poses significant risks to Ethiopia's infant manufacturing sector, potentially leading to job losses and revenue reductions. It highlights that Ethiopia is pursuing regional integration through bilateral infrastructure and energy projects—such as the LAPSSET Corridor and hydropower exports—rather than formal trade liberalisation.

The paper finds that Nigeria's trade with BRICS is heavily skewed toward crude oil exports and manufactured imports, with China and South Africa playing the most significant roles in driving Nigerian GDP growth through imports and exports, respectively.

The document outlines the necessity for businesses in Kenya to 'climate-proof' their operations by assessing risks and implementing adaptation measures. It highlights that climate change impacts—such as temperature increases and rainfall changes—affect all economic sectors, with droughts and flooding estimated to cost Kenya approximately 2.0 per cent of GDP annually. The briefing provides a sector-specific matrix of risks and opportunities and shares examples of Kenyan companies already adapting through supply chain diversification and innovative insurance products. It advocates for the use of risk assessment tools and calls for government leadership in demonstrating climate resilience.

South Africa's FDI environment is characterized by a transition from a liberal, open-door policy to a regime that prioritizes domestic socio-economic benefits, such as fighting unemployment and promoting inclusive growth. While the country offers a strategic gateway to the SADC region and possesses strong mining, finance, and retail sectors, it faces challenges in attracting manufacturing FDI due to high labor costs, technical skills shortages, and infrastructure constraints. Recent trends show volatile FDI flows, with a shift toward investments from developing Asia, though greenfield investment remains persistently low compared to mergers and acquisitions.

The document evaluates the potential for carbon leakage in South Korea as it implements the Korean emission trading scheme (KETS). Using methodology from the EU ETS Directive, the analysis finds that several manufacturing sectors face a moderate to high risk of leakage, primarily driven by high trade intensity rather than additional production costs. The report highlights that while energy efficiency and fuel switching have historically reduced emissions intensity, the recovery of emission-intensive industries like steel and cement has increased structural risks. It recommends that the South Korean government consider mitigation policies such as free allowances, border adjustments, or import taxes to prevent the displacement of emissions to regions with less stringent climate policies.

The document examines Malawi's use of predominantly fiscal investment incentives, such as tax breaks and industrial rebates, to attract investment. It highlights a tension between the government's need for tax revenue to manage public debt and the private sector's demand for incentives. The author argues that these incentives result in significant revenue loss and may not be the primary driver of investment decisions, suggesting a shift toward improving the overall domestic business environment.

The document highlights Ethiopia's significant investment in infrastructure, spending $1.3 billion annually (10% of GDP), with a focus on energy and transport. It notes that Ethiopia requires 8700 megawatts of generating plant over the next decade to double its capacity. While Kenya is often seen as the regional anchor, the author argues that Ethiopia's growth rates since 2005/06 and its strategic importance make it a potential regional powerhouse. However, Ethiopia faces fundamental business challenges including foreign currency regulations, inflation, and a lack of competitiveness in its manufacturing sector, which contributes less than 10 percent of total merchandise exports.

The paper argues that while BRICS nations share complementary economic relationships, their individual state-led strategies to promote manufacturing and disputes over currency valuation create friction. It suggests that the group could find common ground by collaborating to resuscitate the WTO Doha round, engaging with China's shift toward a consumption-led economic model, and coordinating a common position on currency reform within the G20 to reduce global protectionism.

The paper analyses 60,463 electricity-related energy efficiency recommendations for U.S. manufacturing SMEs, finding that payback time and investment costs are the primary drivers of implementation. It identifies an 'energy efficiency paradox' where firms are more sensitive to upfront costs than long-term savings, and notes that implementation rates are higher in states with higher greenhouse gas emissions and lower industrial GDP.

The report examines how trade liberalization in Southeast Asia affects women across the manufacturing, agricultural, and services sectors. It argues that trade policies are typically 'gender blind,' ignoring the asymmetric impacts on women due to existing social and economic inequalities. While liberalization has created some employment opportunities, it has also led to wage gaps, poor working conditions, and increased vulnerability for poor women. The document concludes that women's participation in high-level policymaking has not translated into gender-sensitive trade policies and recommends putting women at the center of trade analysis and providing social safety nets.

The document examines the failure of the private sector to drive economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, attributing this to the political dominance of elites who extract surplus from producers. It contrasts the vulnerability of African peasants and foreign firms with the relatively stronger private sector in South Africa. The author proposes a new form of democracy that empowers producers through land ownership and independent financial institutions to foster a genuine capitalist market economy.

The report argues that auctioning emissions allowances in the EU ETS is superior to free allocation because it removes price signal distortions, prevents windfall profits, and generates public revenue for climate action and social compensation. While carbon leakage is a primary concern for a small number of energy-intensive manufacturing sub-sectors, the authors find that leakage in the power sector is unlikely due to limited interconnection capacity and long investment cycles. The report recommends a simple, high-frequency, uniform-price auction design and suggests that leakage be addressed through targeted State Aid or border adjustments rather than broad free allocation. Additionally, it highlights that auction revenues can mitigate the regressive nature of carbon pricing by supporting low-income households.

The report describes a Zimbabwean economy in crisis, driven by the breakdown of the rule of law and a chaotic land resettlement program that undermined the agricultural sector. It details severe macroeconomic instability, including hyperinflation, currency collapse, and a reliance on parallel markets. The document argues that recovery is impossible without fundamental political change, the restoration of property rights, and a return to democratic governance.

The Climate Finance Accelerator (CFA) is a UK-funded global programme, led in South Africa by NBI and GreenCape, that provides technical, financial, and social inclusion support to low-carbon projects to improve their bankability. The programme does not provide direct funding but facilitates connections between project developers and commercial or concessional investors. Eligible projects must be at least at the pre-feasibility stage, have a financing need between USD $5m and $150m, and demonstrate measurable greenhouse gas emission reductions.

The African Futures platform, powered by the International Futures modelling tool from the University of Denver, provides forecasts for every African country and region through 2043. It analyzes 17 thematic areas, including climate change and energy, and compares a 'Current Path' against eight thematic scenarios and a combined Agenda 2063 scenario to simulate the impact of policy interventions.