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Shipping Forecasts: September 2024
Carbon Market Watch (CMW) evaluated four market-based measure (MBM) proposals for the IMO's GHG strategy. The 'Pacifics' proposal (Belize et al.) was ranked highest (82/100) due to its high levy of $150/tCO2e and strong support for climate-vulnerable nations. The EU/Japan proposal scored 62/100, while the Bahamas et al. and Canada proposals both received a 'C' grade (49/100 and 46/100 respectively) for lacking specificity in funding and contribution levels. A proposal by Angola et al. was excluded from the scoring as it was deemed a technical fuel standard rather than a market-based economic measure.
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Document type: Policy brief
Previsiones del transporte marítimo Septiembre 2024
Carbon Market Watch (CMW) assessed several market-based proposals for international shipping decarbonization, scoring them based on alignment with the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal, emission reductions, and equity. The analysis highlights that while the IMO's 2023 strategy aims for net-zero emissions by 2050, current measures are insufficient. CMW identifies the proposal by Canada as the strongest (Score A+), citing its high carbon levy of 150 $/tCO2e, while criticizing the Bahamas et al. proposal (Score C) for its reliance on a flexibility compliance mechanism that disincentivizes decarbonization.
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Document type: Policy brief
Prévisions concernant le transport maritime Septembre 2024
Carbon Market Watch (CMW) assessed several market-based measure (MBM) proposals for the international shipping sector, using a methodology developed by CE Delft. The evaluation focused on alignment with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal, immediate emission reductions, support for vulnerable nations and workers, and funding for research and development. The analysis highlights that current IMO strategies are insufficient for 1.5°C alignment and that only proposals with high carbon levies—such as those from Canada and Austria et al.—provide a strong enough price signal to drive the transition to zero-emission technologies.
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Document type: Policy brief
Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies
Carbon Market Watch evaluated several greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing proposals for the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), scoring them based on criteria such as emission reduction potential, support for vulnerable nations, and revenue use for R&D. The analysis finds that while some proposals, such as those from Canada and Belize et al., show strength in levy levels and support for vulnerable nations, others, like the Bahamas et al. proposal, are insufficient as they do not function as robust market-based measures. The document argues that meeting the IMO's net-zero goals by or around 2050 requires ambitious levies and strong enforcement to incentivise zero-emission technologies.
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Document type: Policy brief
STOP FOSSIL FUELS FROM FUELLING CONFLICT
The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.
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Document type: Report
China’s Coal Conundrum
China is the world's largest coal producer and importer, with a significant shift toward large-scale and mega-scale mining operations. Despite climate goals, China is developing approximately 1,280 Mtpa of new coal capacity, nearly half of the global proposed pipeline. This expansion, concentrated in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, drives massive methane emissions, with China's operating mines alone accounting for roughly 70% of global coal mine methane emissions from similar-sized operations. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominate the sector, controlling 40% of production capacity and contributing nearly 40% of the nation's coal mine methane emissions.
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Document type: Report
GROWTH, EQUITY, AND A JUST TRANSITION IN THE BEEF SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA
The document examines the tensions between the industrial growth strategy of South Africa's beef sector and the goals of a just transition. It highlights a 'dualistic' industry where commercial production is highly concentrated and intensive, while smallholder farmers face significant barriers to market entry. The report argues that current efforts to integrate smallholders into commercial value chains may benefit only a small elite and fail to address broader agrarian inequalities. Ecologically, it notes that beef cattle are the largest source of agricultural GHG emissions in South Africa, primarily through enteric fermentation. While the industry promotes 'sustainable intensification' and regenerative grazing, the report cautions that these may not offset total emissions growth and may not address the socio-economic distribution of emissions. It concludes that a just transition requires setting ambitious emission limits, redistributing productive resources like land, and reconfiguring labour markets to improve conditions for farm workers.
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Document type: Briefing
Manitoba Builds Green
The report argues that Manitoba requires a massive, publicly led effort to implement deep energy retrofits (DERs)—defined as improvements reducing energy use by at least 50%—to meet 2050 net-zero targets. It estimates that 200,000 home retrofits are needed, requiring an annual investment of CAD 1.2 billion. The authors propose the creation of a Manitoba Green Bank to provide low- or no-interest financing and the adoption of a retrofit code by 2025. The strategy emphasizes a 'just transition' by prioritizing low-income renters and utilizing social enterprises to train underrepresented groups, including women and Indigenous Peoples, for the thousands of green jobs expected to be created.
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Document type: Report
Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanisms and Impacts on Vietnam
The report examines how the EU's CBAM and potential future BCAs from other nations affect Vietnam's export-oriented economy, focusing on the iron, steel, aluminum, cement, and fertilizer sectors. It highlights the administrative and financial burdens on Vietnamese enterprises, particularly SMEs, and argues for the development of a domestic carbon pricing mechanism to retain revenues and improve competitiveness. The document also emphasizes the need for technical assistance and the application of the 'common but differentiated responsibilities' principle to ensure fairness for developing nations.
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Document type: Report
Assessment of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Canada
The report finds that the Government of Canada is providing an inefficient fossil fuel subsidy to the oil industry by charging transportation tolls on the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMP) that are significantly below marketplace costs. Using three different valuation methods, the report estimates the total subsidy to be between CAD 8.7 billion and CAD 18.8 billion, which translates to a cost of CAD 581 to CAD 1,255 per Canadian household. The analysis concludes that the project fails all criteria for an 'efficient' subsidy and that the overall cost-benefit analysis shows a net cost to Canada of CAD 23.1 billion. To phase out this subsidy, the author recommends either raising tolls to economic levels or implementing a cost-recovery levy of CAD 1.00 to CAD 2.00 per barrel on Western Canadian oil shipments.
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Document type: Report
TOTALENERGIES AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
The document examines TotalEnergies' use of the bond market to secure long-term financing, noting a trend toward abnormally long maturities extending to 2064. It argues that these bonds provide the company with unrestricted funds to pursue fossil fuel expansion, contrary to IEA Net Zero scenarios, while creating systemic and financial risks for the banks and investors involved. The report identifies specific financial institutions facilitating these issuances and calls for a total cessation of support for companies developing new oil and gas projects.
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Document type: Briefing
It Pays to Know Your Oil and Gas
The OCI+ tool reveals that global oil and gas resources vary by up to five times in life-cycle emissions intensity. The document emphasizes that supply-side emissions from production, refining, and transport can rival end-use consumption, making the identification of high-emitting assets critical for short-term climate action. It highlights methane reduction as the highest priority, noting that methane accounts for over half of operational emissions and advocating for the use of a 20-year global warming potential (GWP20) to accurately assess climate risks.
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Document type: Fact sheet
The Oil and Gas Sector Needs to Tackle Its Methane Problem. Here’s How to Track It.
The OCI+ tool provides data on the methane intensity of global oil and gas resources, highlighting that the sector is responsible for an estimated one-third of global methane emissions. The tool aims to help policymakers, investors, and civil society prioritize the highest-emitting assets for mitigation. The document emphasizes that over half of industry methane emissions can be profitably reduced and notes the role of satellite monitoring in identifying super-emitters. Additionally, the OCI+ includes an environmental justice feature to map the risks posed by gas flaring to nearby communities, specifically utilizing 2022 US flaring data.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Setting consumption-based emission reduction goals
The document argues that Oregon should adopt consumption-based emission targets to account for its full carbon footprint and avoid displacing emissions to other regions. It contrasts sector-based emissions (territorial) with consumption-based emissions (life cycle of goods and services) and notes that while Oregon's sector emissions have decreased, consumption emissions continue to rise. The paper provides case studies from cities like San Francisco, London, and Paris, and countries like Sweden, to illustrate different target-setting approaches. It proposes four specific frameworks for Oregon: aligning with existing sector goals, targeting minimum well-being standards, using global carbon budget scenario analysis, or applying a 'fair share' equity-based approach.
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Document type: Research paper
Finding a place for smallholder farmers in EU deforestation regulation
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to eliminate deforestation-driven imports of commodities like palm oil, rubber, cocoa, coffee, soy, and cattle. However, the briefing highlights that stringent due diligence requirements—including geolocation and traceability—risk excluding smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia who lack the financial resources, technical capacity, and legal land tenure to comply. The document argues that without targeted support, such as knowledge hubs, financial mechanisms for compliance costs, and improved stakeholder coordination, smallholders may be pushed out of the global value chain. It emphasizes that local context is critical, as many smallholders operate through informal transactions and lack the certifications required by the EU market.
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Document type: Briefing
¿Qué significa cumplir con las metas globales de triplicar renovables y duplicar eficiencia energética en América Latina?
The document uses EnergyScope modeling to evaluate how four Latin American countries can align with COP 28 global energy targets. It concludes that a literal tripling of capacity is not necessary for all countries to meet projected demand and that combining renewable expansion with doubled energy efficiency can reduce the required installed capacity.
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Document type: Policy brief
CAS TUDI ARGENTINA, BRASIL, COLOMBIA CHILE
The report analyzes four Latin American countries, finding that while a literal tripling of renewable capacity is unfeasible or unnecessary for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia due to their existing high renewable shares, it could meet Argentina's demand but remains practically unattainable. It proposes 'sustainable progression' scenarios that balance demand with renewable growth and energy efficiency, highlighting the roles of solar, wind, and bioenergy in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
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Document type: Executive summary
Saint Lucia: The Land, the People, the Light
Saint Lucia is transitioning its energy system to reduce diesel dependency and increase climate resilience. A key milestone was the 2018 completion of a 4 megawatt utility-scale solar farm, which produced 24.7 million kWh of electricity in its first three years. The island aims to have 35 percent of its electricity supplied by renewable energy by 2025 and to reduce climate pollution by 23 percent by 2050. Current efforts include the planning of eight solar microgrids to power critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, to ensure operational continuity during disasters. The document highlights the role of 'catalytic' philanthropic capital in unlocking private investment and the importance of the Climate Finance Access Network (CFAN) in helping small island developing states navigate the complexities of securing climate finance.
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Document type: Case study
APPEAL PURSUANT TO SECTION 43(2) OF THE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT ACT, 1998 AGAINST AMENDED ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORISATION GRANTED TO PHINDA POWER PROJECTS (PTY) LTD ON 2 AUGUST 2024
This document is a formal appeal submitted by groundWork and the South Durban Community Environmental Alliance (SDCEA) to the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment. The appeal seeks to set aside an Amended Environmental Authorisation (Amended EA) granted on 2 August 2024 to Phinda Power Projects (Pty) Ltd for a 320MW Emergency Risk Mitigation Power Plant in Alton, Richards Bay. The Appellants argue that the decision was unlawful, procedurally unfair, and failed to adequately assess the environmental and climate impacts of switching the plant's fuel source and technology.
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Document type: Statement
The G7, South Africa and the Sustainable Climate Agenda for Africa
The research paper examines the intersection of G7 initiatives, such as the Energy for Growth in Africa Initiative and the Mattei Plan, with South Africa's role as a representative for African climate priorities. It highlights the tension between Western-led green transitions and African concerns over 'green protectionism' (specifically the EU's CBAM), the need for adaptation financing based on the 'common but differentiated responsibilities' principle, and the geopolitical competition for critical minerals. The author argues that the G7 must provide concrete deliverables and respect African agency to effectively bridge its goals with South Africa's upcoming G20 presidency.
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Document type: Research paper