Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies

Carbon Market Watch evaluated several greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing proposals for the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), scoring them based on criteria such as emission reduction potential, support for vulnerable nations, and revenue use for R&D. The analysis finds that while some proposals, such as those from Canada and Belize et al., show strength in levy levels and support for vulnerable nations, others, like the Bahamas et al. proposal, are insufficient as they do not function as robust market-based measures. The document argues that meeting the IMO's net-zero goals by or around 2050 requires ambitious levies and strong enforcement to incentivise zero-emission technologies.

• The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) updated its GHG strategy in 2023 to target net-zero emissions by or around 2050, including a 20-30% reduction by 2030 and 70-80% by 2040 relative to 2008 levels, and a 5-10% uptake of zero-emission fuels by 2030; however, these actions are deemed insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal.
• The proposal by Bahamas et al., which combines a GHG fuel standard (GFS) with a flexibility compliance mechanism (FCM), is not considered a viable market-based measure because it only covers emissions of ships exceeding fuel intensity limits, thereby disincentivising decarbonisation and failing to raise sufficient revenue for an equitable transition.
• The proposal from Angola et al. is noted for its strong monitoring system and support for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, but it is weakened by a low suggested levy of $18.75/tCO2e, vague timelines, and a lack of detail regarding long-term targets and R&D funding.
• Proposals from Canada and Belize et al. (Pacifics) received high scores (A+ and B respectively), with Canada's proposal featuring a high levy of $150/tCO2e and Belize et al. featuring a relatively high levy of $130/tCO2e.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (2024). Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-proposals-under-the-International-Maritime-Organisations-market-based-measures-MBM-shipping-strategies.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies. 2024. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-proposals-under-the-International-Maritime-Organisations-market-based-measures-MBM-shipping-strategies.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies |date=September 2024 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-proposals-under-the-International-Maritime-Organisations-market-based-measures-MBM-shipping-strategies.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatch2024shipping, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 Scoring the decarbonisation proposals under the International Maritime Organisation's market-based measures (MBM) shipping strategies}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-proposals-under-the-International-Maritime-Organisations-market-based-measures-MBM-shipping-strategies.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }