Manitoba Builds Green

This report examines the potential for scaling up deep energy retrofits (DERs) in Manitoba, specifically within Winnipeg's residential building stock, to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. It argues that while upfront costs are high, public leadership through a green public bank, updated building codes, and a coordinated workforce strategy can drive significant economic growth and social equity.

• To achieve net-zero in Manitoba's building sector by 2050, approximately 200,000 home retrofits are required, averaging 8,000 homes per year. This would necessitate an estimated annual investment of CAD 1.2 billion, totaling CAD 30 billion over 25 years, based on an average cost of CAD 150,000 per home.
• Deep energy retrofits (DERs), defined as infrastructure changes improving energy efficiency by at least 50%, are more economical than electrifying heating without efficiency gains. They are particularly critical for managing peak electricity demand during Manitoba's extreme weather, where temperatures can fluctuate by more than 70°C annually.
• Public investment in building retrofits is projected to have high economic multipliers. In Manitoba, an annual investment of CAD 800 million is estimated to generate CAD 1.7 billion in provincial GDP and 7,100 job years every year. Nationally, multipliers are estimated between CAD 2.3 and CAD 7 of GDP for every CAD 1 of public investment.
• The report recommends the creation of a Manitoba Green Bank to provide low- or no-interest, long-term 'patient' finance for DERs. This public bank would operate on a triple bottom line of green and just transition, democratic governance, and financial sustainability, acting as a hub to coordinate energy audits, permitting, and construction.
• To accelerate the transition, the report proposes several policy changes: adopting at least Tier 3 building codes for residential buildings, expediting a retrofit code by 2025, banning natural gas heating in new codes, and introducing mandatory energy labelling during home sales to create market value for efficiency.
• A strategic procurement approach is recommended, leveraging publicly owned housing (such as Manitoba Housing) and Indigenous-owned housing to create stable demand for DER services. This would jumpstart a homegrown industry and improve living conditions for those experiencing energy poverty.
• The transition presents a significant workforce opportunity but faces a projected shortfall of 2,900 construction workers by 2033. The report advocates for pairing investments with training, expanding apprenticeships, and partnering with social enterprises and First Nations to include underrepresented groups, including women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers.
• Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) are identified as a key complement to DERs in Manitoba. Converting electric-heat homes to geothermal can reduce peak load on the grid by roughly 7-8 KW per home, potentially saving hundreds of megawatts of capacity, equivalent to the production of the CAD 1.3 billion Wuskwatim hydro dam.
• Current incentive programs are deemed insufficient. The Canada Greener Homes Grant, for example, primarily funded superficial retrofits (like windows or doors) rather than building envelope upgrades because its CAD 5,000 maximum was too low to cover the high costs of DERs, which can range from CAD 100,000 to over CAD 400,000 in Winnipeg.

APA

Rempel, Z., Harney, N., Hudson, M., Cameron, L., & Aubin, Z. S. (2024). Manitoba Builds Green. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/manitoba-builds-green.pdf

Chicago

Rempel, Zachary, Niall Harney, Mark Hudson, Laura Cameron, and Zoe St. Aubin. Manitoba Builds Green. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2024. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/manitoba-builds-green.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rempel |first1=Zachary |last2=Harney |first2=Niall |last3=Hudson |first3=Mark |last4=Cameron |first4=Laura |last5=Aubin |first5=Zoe St. |title=Manitoba Builds Green |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2024 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/manitoba-builds-green.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rempel2024manitoba, author = {Rempel, Zachary and Harney, Niall and Hudson, Mark and Cameron, Laura and Aubin, Zoe St.}, title = {{Manitoba Builds Green}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2024-09/manitoba-builds-green.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }