Shipping Forecasts: September 2024

Carbon Market Watch (CMW) evaluated four market-based measure (MBM) proposals for the IMO's GHG strategy. The 'Pacifics' proposal (Belize et al.) was ranked highest (82/100) due to its high levy of $150/tCO2e and strong support for climate-vulnerable nations. The EU/Japan proposal scored 62/100, while the Bahamas et al. and Canada proposals both received a 'C' grade (49/100 and 46/100 respectively) for lacking specificity in funding and contribution levels. A proposal by Angola et al. was excluded from the scoring as it was deemed a technical fuel standard rather than a market-based economic measure.

• The 'Pacifics' proposal (Belize et al.) is the most complete and effective, scoring 82/100. It features a high levy of $150 / tCO2e, universal coverage, and concrete amendments to MARPOL Annex VI without trial periods or phased approaches.
• The EU/Japan proposal (Austria et al.) received a score of 62/100. While it proposes a $100 / tCO2e levy for 2027, it lacks detail for milestones in 2030, 2040, and 2050, and is criticized for insufficient funding for research, development, and innovation (R&D&I).
• The Bahamas, Liberia, and International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) proposal scored 49/100. It is criticized for a vague contribution range ($6.25 to 100 / tCO2e) and for using a Tank-to-Wake (TtW) approach instead of the more comprehensive Well-to-Wake (WtW) framework.
• Canada's proposal scored 46/100. Although it suggests a relatively high charge of $130 / tCO2e based on WtW emissions, it lacks concrete MARPOL Annex VI amendments and provides no funding for R&D&I.
• The Angola et al. proposal was excluded from the assessment because it focuses on a GHG fuel standard (GFS) and a flexibility compliance mechanism rather than a carbon pricing mechanism, which CMW argues would raise significantly less revenue than a levy.
• The 2023 IMO GHG strategy aims for a 20% (striving for 30%) emission reduction by 2030 and 70% (striving for 80%) by 2040 compared to 2008 levels, with a goal of net zero by or around 2050.

APA

Bonnet-Cantalloube, B. (2024). Shipping Forecasts: September 2024. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy-brief-Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-perspectives-of-IMO-MBM-shipping-strategies-1.pdf

Chicago

Bonnet-Cantalloube, Bastien. Shipping Forecasts: September 2024. Carbon Market Watch, 2024. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy-brief-Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-perspectives-of-IMO-MBM-shipping-strategies-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bonnet-Cantalloube |first1=Bastien |title=Shipping Forecasts: September 2024 |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=September 2024 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy-brief-Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-perspectives-of-IMO-MBM-shipping-strategies-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bonnetcantalloube2024shipping, author = {Bonnet-Cantalloube, Bastien}, title = {{Shipping Forecasts: September 2024}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2024}, month = sep, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy-brief-Shipping-Forecasts-Scoring-the-decarbonisation-perspectives-of-IMO-MBM-shipping-strategies-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }