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Summary and key findings insummary:"conflict of interest"
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Climate TagsFiscal policy
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  • The Ugandan government implemented expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. While these measures helped stabilize the financial sector and provided temporary liquidity to businesses, the pandemic caused real GDP growth to drop from 6.8% in FY 2018/19 to 2.9% in FY 2019/20. The industrial and services sectors were most severely affected, contributing to a projected 34.5% increase in the number of people living below the poverty line. Fiscal deficits rose to 7.5% of GDP in FY 2019/20, leading to a 21.7% increase in public debt stock to $15.27 billion.

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    Regions: Uganda
  • The document analyzes Senegal's macroeconomic trajectory from the 1970s through the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights how the pandemic caused a significant drop in GDP growth in 2020, severely impacting sectors such as tourism, transport, and agriculture. To counter this, the Senegalese government and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) deployed a combination of stimulus packages, tax rebates, and liquidity measures. These interventions are credited with achieving a 1.3% real GDP growth in 2020, outperforming initial IMF forecasts of -0.4%. The paper also discusses the role of foreign direct investment, the potential of future oil and gas production, and the long-term goals of the Emerging Senegal Plan.

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    Regions: Senegal
  • The document analyzes Benin's macroeconomic response to COVID-19, noting that while stringent health measures and high citizen compliance kept infection rates low, the economy suffered a GDP growth decline from 6.5% in 2019 to 4.8% in 2020. The government and BCEAO deployed expansionary monetary policies to increase liquidity and fiscal measures including cash transfers and subsidies. While these actions supported the agricultural sector and prevented food price inflation, the overall expansion of the money supply contributed to higher consumer prices, potentially increasing poverty risks for vulnerable households.

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    Regions: Benin
  • The document examines Tanzania's macroeconomic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that a 'business-as-usual' approach without lockdowns, combined with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, helped the country avert a recession in 2020. It details specific Bank of Tanzania (BoT) interventions to maintain liquidity and recommends further macroprudential policies, increased healthcare financing, and the implementation of climate-resilient economic strategies.

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    Regions: Tanzania
  • The document details India's shift from a restrictive, state-led 'socialistic pattern of society' to a liberalized trade regime initiated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis. It examines the reduction of tariffs, the removal of import licensing, and the opening of services sectors like IT, banking, and telecommunications to foreign investment. The author analyzes the resulting growth in GDP and total factor productivity, while noting persistent challenges in the agricultural sector and a widening trade deficit.

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    Regions: India
  • The document analyzes New Zealand's transition from a highly regulated economy to one of the most open in the world starting in 1984. It details the rapid withdrawal of agricultural subsidies, the reduction of import tariffs to minimize 'cost excess' for exporters, and the broader structural reforms including privatization and labor market changes. The author assesses the consequences for various agricultural sectors—noting the success of dairy and kiwifruit versus the struggles of sheep meat—and discusses the role of the Australia New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (ANZCERTA) in facilitating this transition.

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    Regions: New Zealand
  • The paper finds that while Uganda has increased its climate ambition in its updated NDC, its actual post-COVID recovery packages have largely ignored green goals in favor of immediate health and economic rescue. It highlights a significant funding gap, where over 70% of NDC implementation costs must come from external sources, and warns that rising public debt may further obstruct climate investment. The authors recommend leveraging green procurement, nature-based solutions, and innovative financing to align economic recovery with the country's transition to a green economy by 2030.

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    Regions: Uganda
  • The document analyzes the macroeconomic resilience of Kenya and Tanzania from 2000 to 2022, examining the impacts of climate-related shocks, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while both countries used prudent monetary and fiscal policies, Tanzania exhibited less volatility in GDP per capita growth and maintained higher gross savings. The paper recommends simplifying tax systems, reducing non-concessional borrowing, and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to enhance resilience.

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    Regions: KenyaTanzania
  • The document analyzes how COVID-19 and its containment measures slowed Uganda's GDP growth to 2.9% in FY2019/20, particularly impacting the services and industrial sectors. It details the government's expansionary responses, including reducing the central bank rate to 7%, providing tax relief to businesses, and implementing social safety nets like the Emyooga fund. While these measures stabilized the financial sector and protected some formal businesses, they contributed to a rise in public debt from $12.55 billion to $15.27 billion and increased external debt vulnerability. The paper concludes that approximately 3 million people fell into poverty due to the pandemic.

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    Regions: Uganda
  • The report evaluates the fiscal responses of six African nations to the COVID-19 pandemic through a climate lens, categorising policies as green, red (unfriendly), or grey (neutral). It finds that most stimulus packages were climate neutral, with Nigeria being the only country to implement an overall green package. In contrast, Uganda's response was deemed 'red' due to investments in carbon-intensive industrial parks, and South Africa's package was neutral despite its high emissions profile. The author argues that green spending is more effective for job creation than fossil fuel investments and recommends that African governments utilise Pigouvian taxes and green financing to achieve a sustainable economic recovery.

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  • The document examines the distributional effects of COVID-19 macroeconomic policies in Nigeria and Uganda, finding that 'neutral' policy designs often exacerbate existing inequalities. It highlights the exclusion of the urban poor, women, and the informal sector from cash transfers and financial relief, while noting that monetary policy easing has not translated into lower lending rates for high-risk borrowers. The brief recommends leveraging electronic platforms for cash distribution, increasing investment in renewable energy for low-income households, and improving long-term tax capacity to fund social protection.

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    Regions: NigeriaUganda
  • The document examines South Africa's use of monetary and macroprudential tools to maintain financial stability during COVID-19, while highlighting the constraints imposed by pre-existing fiscal weakness and junk-status debt. It argues that while the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) adherence to international standards like Basel III provided critical shock absorbers, long-term growth requires structural reforms and credible fiscal consolidation.

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    Regions: South Africa
  • The report examines macroeconomic resilience in 12 sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on the use of monetary and fiscal instruments to stabilise production and inflation cycles. It identifies commodity price downcycles as the most consistent trigger for economic crises and argues that currency regimes significantly influence a nation's ability to absorb shocks. The author develops the CoMPRA-MERI index to track resilience across seven dimensions: fiscal, monetary, external debt, trade, investment, governance, and human capital. Findings suggest that most countries exhibit procyclical outcomes due to structural constraints, though Uganda is noted as a successful exception in applying countercyclical tools. The report recommends trade diversification and a shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes to enhance structural resilience.

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  • The briefing compares the macroeconomic resilience of Benin and Togo from 2000 to 2020, finding that Benin's economy is more volatile due to greater global integration, while Togo's performance has been shielded by phosphate exports. It examines the impact of national crises—such as political instability in Togo and trade disputes in Benin—and regional shocks like COVID-19 and Ebola, evaluating the fiscal and monetary policy responses of both nations.

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    Regions: BeninTogo
  • The paper compares the macroeconomic resilience of Nigeria and Ghana, noting that while both face vulnerabilities to commodity price fluctuations and climate shocks, Ghana's more diversified economy has generally provided greater resilience. Nigeria's heavy reliance on oil makes it more susceptible to external shocks, leading to recessions in 2016 and 2020. Both countries struggle with significant public debt and fiscal deficits, often resorting to borrowing to finance government expenditure during crises. The authors recommend that Nigeria diversify its economy away from oil and improve fiscal management, while Ghana should expand its export base and accelerate the rollout of renewable energy to improve energy security.

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    Regions: NigeriaGhana
  • The CHAPOSA project investigated charcoal production systems around Lusaka, Dar es Salaam, and Maputo between 1989 and 1998. Findings indicate a significant reduction in closed forest cover in all three areas, with the most severe depletion around Maputo. Charcoal serves as a critical income source for rural poor and a stable, affordable energy source for urban poor, creating a socio-economic dependency that complicates regulation. The report argues that current fiscal and licensing systems are inadequately enforced, treating forests as open-access resources. To mitigate deforestation, the authors recommend a coordinated approach: enforcing licensing to increase prices and fund forest management, while simultaneously providing rural income alternatives (e.g., improved agriculture) and urban energy substitutes (e.g., expanded electricity access).

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    Document type: Report

  • The report 'Jakarta Bukan untuk Semua Orang' critiques the current state of mobility in Jakarta, where traffic congestion and inadequate public transport create significant financial and health burdens for citizens. It argues that the classification of transportation as a 'non-basic mandatory affair' under Law No. 23 of 2014 leads to budget cuts and a lack of political will. The document advocates for a shift toward integrated, affordable public transport and electric buses, noting that electric bus operational costs in 2024 were approximately 9% lower than diesel buses.

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    Document type: Report

  • The document argues that aligning all public and private finance is a necessary condition for meeting the temperature and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. It introduces a framework for governments and non-state actors to drive action, track progress, and increase ambition regarding Article 2.1c. To support this, the paper identifies four primary toolsets for governments: financial policies and regulations, fiscal policy levers, public finance, and information instruments. The author emphasizes urgency, noting that the world must reach net-zero emissions within 25 years to limit warming to 1.5°C, and suggests integrating Article 2.1c into UNFCCC processes like the Global Stocktake and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: World
  • The document evaluates the COVID-19 recovery packages of G20 nations, finding a prevalence of business-as-usual (BAU) investments that risk undermining Paris Agreement goals. It argues that the lack of pre-existing Paris-compatible project planning hindered green recovery efforts and suggests a multifaceted approach using monetary, fiscal, and regulatory levers to align financial flows with climate commitments.

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    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: G20
  • The report by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) highlights the severe health and economic costs associated with the overconsumption of red and processed meats. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease study, ZCA finds that processed meat caused 295,000 deaths and red meat caused 334,000 deaths globally in 2021. The economic impact reached USD 285 billion in 2020. The analysis reveals a 'treatment-over-prevention' trend in wealthy nations—specifically in Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia—where robust healthcare systems spend heavily to manage preventable chronic diseases rather than investing in dietary prevention. For example, Switzerland may spend up to USD 99,000 to avert one disability-adjusted life year (DALY) from processed meat. The report argues that a 30% reduction in the disease burden from processed meat could save billions annually in the US, Germany, UK, and France, allowing for the redirection of funds toward other health priorities, such as nursing staff.

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    Document type: Report

    Regions: World
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