Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation

This research paper evaluates the alignment of Uganda's post-COVID-19 economic recovery strategy with its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). It finds that while Uganda has increased its climate ambition in its updated NDC, the actual economic stimulus packages have largely prioritised immediate health and economic rescue over green recovery, leaving climate action underfunded and sidelined in the budget process.

• Uganda's updated post-COVID NDC demonstrates increased ambition, raising the emission-reduction target to 24.7% below the business-as-usual trajectory by 2030, compared to the 22% target set in the 2015 NDC.
• The scope of Uganda's mitigation efforts has expanded in the updated NDC to include the transport, waste, and industrial processes and product use sectors, which were not included in the 2015 version.
• Uganda's post-COVID economic stimulus packages have largely failed to exploit opportunities for a green recovery, instead focusing on healthcare and economic rescue while relegating environmental issues to the 'back burner'.
• There is a significant gap between climate planning and budgeting in Uganda; for example, the Climate Change Programme's projected allocation in the FY 2021/22 National Budget Framework Paper was only 25% of its requirements under the Third National Development Plan (NDP III).
• The total cost to implement the updated NDC is estimated at $28.1 billion, with Uganda committing to mobilise $4.1 billion (15%), leaving a substantial financial gap that relies heavily on external international sources (over 70%).
• High levels of public debt resulting from the pandemic threaten Uganda's ability to invest in a climate-sensitive recovery, with debt servicing consuming up to 97% of domestic revenue and 28–30% of GDP.
• The Climate Change Act, signed into law on 14 August 2021, provided the first legal mandate to enforce climate action, monitoring, and reporting in Uganda, though it awaits full operationalisation through a Framework Strategy and National Action Plan.
• Uganda's economic growth has historically been achieved through the liquidation of natural capital, including forests, wetlands, and biodiversity, leading to high vulnerability to climate change.
• The document identifies several specific opportunities to green the recovery, such as applying green conditionality to lending for small enterprises, promoting renewable energy in business parks, and supporting public works in green sectors like urban reforestation.

APA

Kaggwa, R., Nabatanzi, R., Kavuma, S. N., Bakiika, R., & Bainomugisha, A. (n.d.). Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf

Chicago

Kaggwa, Ronald, Rebecca Nabatanzi, Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Robert Bakiika, and Arthur Bainomugisha. Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kaggwa |first1=Ronald |last2=Nabatanzi |first2=Rebecca |last3=Kavuma |first3=Susan Namirembe |last4=Bakiika |first4=Robert |last5=Bainomugisha |first5=Arthur |title=Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kaggwandugandas, author = {Kaggwa, Ronald and Nabatanzi, Rebecca and Kavuma, Susan Namirembe and Bakiika, Robert and Bainomugisha, Arthur}, title = {{Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy \& NDC Implementation}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }