Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation

The paper finds that while Uganda has increased its climate ambition in its updated NDC, its actual post-COVID recovery packages have largely ignored green goals in favor of immediate health and economic rescue. It highlights a significant funding gap, where over 70% of NDC implementation costs must come from external sources, and warns that rising public debt may further obstruct climate investment. The authors recommend leveraging green procurement, nature-based solutions, and innovative financing to align economic recovery with the country's transition to a green economy by 2030.

• Uganda's updated post-COVID NDC demonstrates increased ambition, raising the emission-reduction target to 24.7% below the business-as-usual trajectory by 2030, compared to 22% in the 2015 NDC.
• The updated NDC has expanded its mitigation scope to include sectors that were previously missing, specifically transport, waste, and industrial processes and product use.
• Uganda's actual COVID-19 stimulus packages failed to prioritize green recovery, focusing instead on healthcare and traditional economic goals, with some investments in industrial parks expected to have negative climate effects.
• There is a massive financial gap for climate action; the total cost to implement the updated NDC is estimated at $28.1 billion, with Uganda only committing to mobilize $4.1 billion (15%).
• High levels of public debt resulting from the pandemic are expected to hinder the government's ability to invest in a sustainable recovery, with debt servicing consuming up to 97% of domestic revenue.
• Despite being a natural resource-based economy, Uganda's public expenditure on environmental protection remains very low relative to its development goals.
• The Climate Change Act of 14 August 2021 provided the first legal mandate to enforce climate action and monitor NDC implementation, though it is yet to be fully operationalized.
• The government's transition to a green economy is described as very slow, and current public expenditure levels are unlikely to achieve the goal of a green economy by 2030.
• The pandemic caused temporary improvements in air quality in Kampala, with nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions dropping by 6.0% during lockdowns, though these effects were not sustainable.

APA

Kaggwa, R., Nabatanzi, R., Kavuma, S. N., Bakiika, R., & Bainomugisha, A. (n.d.). Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf

Chicago

Kaggwa, Ronald, Rebecca Nabatanzi, Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Robert Bakiika, and Arthur Bainomugisha. Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation. South African Institute of International Affairs, n.d. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kaggwa |first1=Ronald |last2=Nabatanzi |first2=Rebecca |last3=Kavuma |first3=Susan Namirembe |last4=Bakiika |first4=Robert |last5=Bainomugisha |first5=Arthur |title=Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy & NDC Implementation |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kaggwandugandas, author = {Kaggwa, Ronald and Nabatanzi, Rebecca and Kavuma, Susan Namirembe and Bakiika, Robert and Bainomugisha, Arthur}, title = {{Uganda’s Post-COVID Recovery Strategy \& NDC Implementation}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SAIIA_CoMPRA_PI_16_UgandaPostcovid.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }